Predicting Future Attainment: Is GCSE Always the Answer ? Dr Robert Clark ALIS Project Manager.
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‘Predicting’ Future Attainment: Is GCSE Always the Answer ? Dr Robert Clark ALIS Project Manager
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Transcript of Predicting Future Attainment: Is GCSE Always the Answer ? Dr Robert Clark ALIS Project Manager.
‘Predicting’ Future Attainment:
Is GCSE Always the Answer ?
Dr Robert Clark
ALIS Project Manager
Making ‘Predictions’
.
Subject X
020406080
100120140
4 5 6 7 8
Baseline
Out
com
e
0 2 4 6 8
Subject X
How CEM ‘Predictions’ are made…
A* / A
C
Regression Line – specific to each subjector Trend Lineor Line of Best Fit
Some Subjects are More Equal than Others….
E
D
C
B
A
C
Gra
de
B A A*
Average GCSE
Physics
Maths
Psychology
Sociology
Latin
Photography
English Lit
>1 grade
Using a trend line specific to each subject / qualificationis of critical importance
020406080
100120140
Subject X
Ability
Out
com
e
Subject X
However….
Do we really know this ?
GCSE or … ?
?
Measuring Ability
Choice of Baseline
• Average GCSE Score
• CABT (Computer Adaptive Baseline Test)
Why 2 Baselines ?
Measuring Ability
Why 2 Baselines ?
Average GCSE correlates very well to A-level / IB etc, but by itself is not sufficient….
• What is a GCSE ?
• Students without GCSE ?
• Years out between GCSE & A-level ?
• Reliability of GCSE ?
• Prior Value-Added ?
The Effect of Prior Value Added
Beyond Expectation
+ve Value-Added
In line with Expectation
0 Value-Added
Below Expectation
-ve Value-Added
Average GCSE = 6 Average GCSE = 6 Average GCSE = 6
Do these 3 students all have the same ability ?
• Do students with the same GCSE score from feeder schools with differing value-added have the same ability ?
• How can you tell if a student has underachieved at GCSE and thus can you maximise their potential ?
• Has a student got v.good GCSE scores through the school effort rather than their ability alone ?
• How will this affect expectation of attainment in the Sixth Form ?
• Can you add value at every Key Stage ?
Baseline testing provides a measure of ability that (to a large extent) is independent of the effect of prior treatment.
Appropriate Baseline
Computer Adaptive Baseline Test (CABT)
• Test performed online – results automatically transmitted to CEM.
• Minimal installation / setup required - if any.
• Adaptive – difficulty of questions changes in relation to ability of student.
• Efficient – no time wasted answering questions that are far too easy or difficult.
• Wider range of ability
• Less stressful on students – more enjoyable experience than paper test.
• Less demanding invigilation.
• Test designed to be completed in 1 hour or less.
• No materials to courier
In 2010 / 2011 over 68,000 students sat this test in Alis
To try it out… www.intuproject.org/demos
X
Baseline & Predictive Feedback
Intake Profiles
IPR...
Full Alis 2009 Demo School (999)
Banana, Brian
Banana, Brian
?
Studying :MathsPhysicsChemistryBiology
Prediction Reports
Probability of achieving
each grade
Expected Grade
Predictions Based on GCSE
Predictions Based on Baseline Test
Which predicted grades are the most appropriate for this student ?
Predictions Based on GCSE
(7.0)
B
B
C
B
B
Predictions Based on Test
(106)
C
B
D
B
C
What is this Student’s ability ?
What Grades should we expect her to get ?
If she gets C’s instead of B’s, is this a problem ?
Predictive Feedback
Real Life Examples
Student 1
Student 2
Student 2 - IPR
Student 3
Student 3 - IPR
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 330
5
10
15
20
25
30
Vocab Item Responses
Question
Res
po
nse
Tim
e (s
)
Correct
Wrong
Impact of Baseline Choice
on VA Scores
Same School - Spot the Difference ?
GCSE as
Baseline
Test as
Baseline
GCSE as
Baseline
Test as
Baseline
A2 Biology
GCSE as
Baseline
Test as
Baseline
A2 Biology
GCSE as
Baseline
Test as
Baseline
Student A
Student A
Student B
Student B
A2 Biology
Student A
Baseline Grade Points ‘Predicted’ Points
VA (Residual)
GCSE A 120 122.4 -2.4
Test A 120 90.6 29.4
Student B
Baseline Grade Points ‘Predicted’ Points
VA (Residual)
GCSE A* 140 128.1 11.9
Test A* 140 100.1 39.9
How well did these students perform ?
