Predicting Academic Success:Biology Students at FIU

Danilo Le Sante

Florida International University

FIU Biology/Marine Biology

Fall 2014: 4,584 active majors 2006-2008 FTIC (n=877):

- 79% first-to-second year retention rate- 56% graduation rate

2011-2013 FTIC (n=1,589)- 81% first-to-second year retention rate

Overview

How can we improve the success of First-Time in College Biology students?

Distribution Academic profile

Course performance Retention & Graduation

Key predictors Comparative analysis

Sample

2006-2008 FTIC Biology:Distribution by High school GPA (W)

2006-2008 FTIC Biology:One-Year Retention & HS GPA (W)

Category HS GPA RangeHS GPA Constant

Beta Coefficient

Logit OddsOdds

ProbabilityRetention

RateTotal (n)

1 Less than 3.0 Reference Group - 27% 44

2 3.00-3.24 -0.981 1.076 0.095 2.9330 75% 52% 84

3 3.25-3.49 -0.981 2.039 1.058 7.6800 88% 74% 97

4 3.50-3.74 -0.981 2.387 1.406 10.877 92% 80% 193

5 3.75-3.99 -0.981 2.950 1.969 19.111 95% 88% 147

6 4.00-4.24 -0.981 3.266 2.285 26.196 96% 91% 184

7 4.25-4.49 -0.981 3.672 2.691 39.333 98% 94% 63

8 4.50-5.50 -0.981 2.853 1.872 17.333 95% 87% 60

Overall 79% 872

2006-2008 FTIC Biology:Logistic Regression

2006-2008 FTIC Biology:Graduation Rate by Retention and HS GPA (W)

Graduation Rate of Retained Students:

- HS GPA (W) less than 3.75: 39% (n=126)

- HS GPA (W) 3.75 or higher: 82% (n=301)

Graduation Rate of Students not Retained (first-year):

- HS GPA (W) less than 3.75: 12% (n=12)

- HS GPA (W) 3.75 or higher: 64% (n=54)

2006-2008 FTIC Biology:Other Findings

First Term GPA Graduation Rate of Retained Students:

- First term GPA less than 3.25: 44% (n=162)

- First term GPA 3.25 or higher: 82% (n=301)

First-year GPA Graduation Rate of Retained Students:

- First-year GPA less than 3.00: 36% (n=104)

- First-year GPA 3.00 or higher: 80% (n=324)

2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 5.00 5.25 5.500.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

4.00f(x) = 1.61760722510367 x − 3.18533186043513R² = 0.834675728877688

Weighted High School GPA of FTIC Biology Students

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ts2006-2008 FTIC Biology:HS GPA (W) and First-Year GPA

Retention Rate of Biology Students

Retention Rate of Students who Passed

Retention Rate of Students who Failed

 

Course n % n % n % Rate Difference

SLS 1501 587 79% 564 81% 23 49% 32%

ENC 1101 481 78% 443 82% 38 51% 31%

ENC 1102 375 81% 335 87% 40 51% 36%

CHM 1045 307 80% 208 87% 99 68% 19%

CHM 1045L 305 80% 269 84% 36 61% 23%

PSY 2020 293 79% 257 83% 36 62% 21%

BSC 1010 328 82% 270 87% 58 64% 23%

BSC 1010L 313 82% 245 88% 68 64% 24%

BSC 1011 147 85% 104 95% 43 68% 27%

MAC 1105 433 78% 237 89% 196 69% 20%

Weighted Avg. - 80% - 87% - 61% 25%

2006-2008 FTIC Biology:Retention and Course Performance

Retention rate based on passing/failing common first-year courses:

 

MAC 1105College Algebra

BSC 1010Gen. Biology I

ENC 1101Writing & Rhetoric I

Grade Earned n % n % n %

A to B+ (4.00-3.33)99 85% 239 84% 247 67%

B to B- (3.00-2.67)63 66% 164 67% 78 48%

C+ to C (2.33-2.00)77 64% 53 50% 25 37%

C- to D- (1.67-0.67)33 52% 3 8% 3 14%

F (0.00)29 23% 1 3% 1 3%

DR45 35% 10 26% 5 26%

2006-2008 FTIC Biology:Performance in Key First-Year Courses

Graduation rate based on grade earned in key course:

2006-2008 FTIC Biology:Performance in Post-First-Year Courses

Number of course attempts in relation to graduation Example:

Graduated Did not Graduate On-Time

Class First Attempt n % First-Year

GPA 1 Att 2 Att 3+ Att n % First-Year GPA 1 Att 2 Att 3+ Att Total

MAC 2311 Calculus I

PASS 269 85% 3.32 269 49 15% 2.97 47 2 318

NOT PASS 145 60% 3.17 5 96 44 96 40% 2.81 27 32 37 241

2011-2013 FTIC Biology:Distribution by High school GPA (W)

2006-2008 FTIC Biology:Distribution by High school GPA (W)

2011-2013 FTIC Biology:One-Year Retention & HS GPA (W)

2006-2008 FTIC Biology:One-Year Retention & HS GPA (W)

Odds Comparison between 2006-08 and 2011-13

2006-2008 2011-2013

HS GPA Range OddsOdds

ProbabilityRetention Rate Odds

Odds Probability

Retention Rate

Less than 3.0 - - 27% - - 62%

3.00-3.24 2.933 75% 52% 1.325 57% 69%

3.25-3.49 7.68 88% 74% 1.333 57% 69%

3.50-3.74 10.877 92% 80% 1.983 66% 77%

3.75-3.99 19.111 95% 88% 3.137 76% 84%

4.00-4.24 26.196 96% 91% 5.896 85% 91%

4.25-4.49 39.333 98% 94% 8.458 89% 93%

4.50-5.50 17.333 95% 87% 7.451 88% 93%

Retention and Course Performance

2006-2008 2011-2013

Course Rate Difference Rate Difference

SLS 1501 32% 27%ENC 1101 31% 28%ENC 1102 36% 23%CHM 1045 19% 7%CHM 1045L 23% 17%PSY 2020 21% 27%BSC 1010 23% 26%BSC 1010L 24% 21%BSC 1011 27% 6%MAC 1105 20% 10%

Weighted Avg. 25% 19%

• Difference in retention rate based on passing/failing common first-year courses:

Key Findings

High School GPA (weighted) was a strong predictor of retention HS GPA (W) was correlated with first-year GPA at FIU

Graduation rate was affected by HS, first term, and first year GPA Performance in gateway courses affected retention and graduation rates

Recommendations

Disseminate information to faculty and staff GPA requirement?

Monitor course performance Implement a “BA” track

Additional support (i.e. tutoring, learning assistants) Collaboration with Chemistry department

Behavioral assessment?