Predictability and Diagnosis of Low-Frequency Climate Processes

in the Pacific

Predictability and Diagnosis of Low-Frequency Climate Processes

in the Pacific

Department of EnergyClimate Change Prediction Program

Grant DE-FG03-01ER63255Progress Report

Seattle, WashingtonOctober 19, 2004

Department of EnergyClimate Change Prediction Program

Grant DE-FG03-01ER63255Progress Report

Seattle, WashingtonOctober 19, 2004

Arthur J. MillerTim P. Barnett

Daniel R. CayanDavid W. Pierce

Scripps Institution of OceanographyUniversity of California, San Diego

Niklas SchneiderInternational Pacific Research Center

University of Hawaii

Predictability and Diagnosis of Low-Frequency Climate Processes

in the Pacific

Predictability and Diagnosis of Low-Frequency Climate Processes

in the Pacific

Research Topics

1) The fundamental dynamics of decadal climate variability in the Pacific Ocean, including predictability and the expected effects of anthropogenic forcing.

2) The techniques of making and evaluating climate predictions, including initial conditions, surface boundary forcing, and statistical techniques for diagnosing state-of-the-art GCMs.

3) Regional predictability of natural and forced climate changes over western subcontinental North America including the coastal ocean.

Addresses a major scientific objective of the BER CCRD: “accurate prediction of future climate on decadal to centennial timescales.”

Research Topics

1) The fundamental dynamics of decadal climate variability in the Pacific Ocean, including predictability and the expected effects of anthropogenic forcing.

2) The techniques of making and evaluating climate predictions, including initial conditions, surface boundary forcing, and statistical techniques for diagnosing state-of-the-art GCMs.

3) Regional predictability of natural and forced climate changes over western subcontinental North America including the coastal ocean.

Addresses a major scientific objective of the BER CCRD: “accurate prediction of future climate on decadal to centennial timescales.”

Predictability and Diagnosis of Low-Frequency Climate Processes

in the Pacific

Predictability and Diagnosis of Low-Frequency Climate Processes

in the Pacific

Recent publications supported by DOE:

Barnett, T. P., D. W. Pierce, M. Latif, D. Dommenget, R. Saravanan, 1999:Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 615-618. Barnett, T. P, D. W. Pierce, R. Schnur, 2001: Science, 292, 270-274. Di Lorenzo, E., A. J. Miller, N. Schneider, J. C. McWilliams, 2004: J. Phys. Oceanogr., in press. Hidalgo, H.G., D. R. Cayan, M. D. Dettinger, 2004:J. Hydrometeorol., submitted. Mestas-Nunez, A. M., A. J. Miller, 2004: Progr. Oceanogr., in press.Miller, A. J., A. J. Gabric, J. R. Moisan, F. Chai, D. J. Neilson, D. W. Pierce, and E. Di Lorenzo, 2004:

In: Global Climate Change and Response of the Carbon Cycle in the Equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans and Adjacent Land Masses, Elsevier Oceanography Series, submitted.

Pierce, D. W., 2001: Prog. Oceanogr., 49, 331-352. Pierce, D. W., 2002: J. Climate, 15, 1295-1308. Pierce, D. W., 2004: Climatic Change, 62, 389-418. Pierce, D. W., 2004: Computing in Science and Engineering, in press. Schneider, N., 2000:.Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 257-260. Schneider, N., 2004: J. Climate, 17, 1083-1095. Schneider, N. and A. J. Miller, 2001: J. Climate, 14, 3997-4002. Schneider, N. and B. D. Cornuelle, 2004: J. Climate, submitted.Schneider, N., A. J. Miller and D. W. Pierce, 2002: J. Climate, 15, 586-605. Schneider, N., E. Di Lorenzo and P. P. Niiler, 2004: J. Phys. Oceanogr., submitted. Stewart, I., Cayan, D. R., and M.D. Dettinger, 2004: Climatic Change, 62, 217-232. Stewart, I., Cayan, D. R., and M.D. Dettinger, 2004: J. Climate, submitted. Yulaeva, E., N. Schneider, D. W. Pierce and T. Barnett, 2001: J. Climate, 14, 4027-4046. Zhu, C., D. W. Pierce, T. P. Barnett, A. W. Wood, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2004:Climatic Change, 62, 45-74.

 

Recent publications supported by DOE:

Barnett, T. P., D. W. Pierce, M. Latif, D. Dommenget, R. Saravanan, 1999:Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 615-618. Barnett, T. P, D. W. Pierce, R. Schnur, 2001: Science, 292, 270-274. Di Lorenzo, E., A. J. Miller, N. Schneider, J. C. McWilliams, 2004: J. Phys. Oceanogr., in press. Hidalgo, H.G., D. R. Cayan, M. D. Dettinger, 2004:J. Hydrometeorol., submitted. Mestas-Nunez, A. M., A. J. Miller, 2004: Progr. Oceanogr., in press.Miller, A. J., A. J. Gabric, J. R. Moisan, F. Chai, D. J. Neilson, D. W. Pierce, and E. Di Lorenzo, 2004:

In: Global Climate Change and Response of the Carbon Cycle in the Equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans and Adjacent Land Masses, Elsevier Oceanography Series, submitted.

Pierce, D. W., 2001: Prog. Oceanogr., 49, 331-352. Pierce, D. W., 2002: J. Climate, 15, 1295-1308. Pierce, D. W., 2004: Climatic Change, 62, 389-418. Pierce, D. W., 2004: Computing in Science and Engineering, in press. Schneider, N., 2000:.Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 257-260. Schneider, N., 2004: J. Climate, 17, 1083-1095. Schneider, N. and A. J. Miller, 2001: J. Climate, 14, 3997-4002. Schneider, N. and B. D. Cornuelle, 2004: J. Climate, submitted.Schneider, N., A. J. Miller and D. W. Pierce, 2002: J. Climate, 15, 586-605. Schneider, N., E. Di Lorenzo and P. P. Niiler, 2004: J. Phys. Oceanogr., submitted. Stewart, I., Cayan, D. R., and M.D. Dettinger, 2004: Climatic Change, 62, 217-232. Stewart, I., Cayan, D. R., and M.D. Dettinger, 2004: J. Climate, submitted. Yulaeva, E., N. Schneider, D. W. Pierce and T. Barnett, 2001: J. Climate, 14, 4027-4046. Zhu, C., D. W. Pierce, T. P. Barnett, A. W. Wood, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2004:Climatic Change, 62, 45-74.

 

Selected Research Highlights Since Last DOE CCPP Meeting

• Forcing of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Schneider, also see poster)

• Validating climate model higher-order statistics (Pierce/Barnett, also see poster)

• Trends in the onset of western U.S. streamflow and relationship to PDO (Cayan)

• Future changes in California Current circulation under global warming scenario (Miller)

PDO: a response of North Pacific SST to• El Nino• Aleutian Low• Transport of the Kuroshio/Oyashio Extension

Schneider and Cornuelle, J. Climate, submitted

Nov-M

ar

-0.6

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.8C

What Forces the Pattern and Timescales of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation?

NPI

NINO3.4

KOE

PDOObserved

Hindcast of annual averaged values of SST: the PDOPD

O

Reconst.

Obs.

Reconstructed

Observed

Tn =

n-1 +

i F

i, n

Autoregressive model forced by El Nino Aleutian Low KOE adjustment to Ekman pumping

Schneider and Cornuelle, J. Climate, submitted

Validating climate models by comparing distributions of daily temperature

Colors indicate the (transformed) skew of the distribution of daily average temperature anomalies, Dec-Jan-Feb

From Pierce, Computing in Science & Engineering, 2004

See poster for further details.

Trends in Onset of the Spring Pulse of

Streamflow

• Pulse onset occurs 1-4 weeks earlier in recent period

• Date of the “center of mass” of streamflow also earlier (red) in snowmelt streams…

• …but later (blue) in rainfall streams along the coast (inset)

Stewart, Cayan and DettingerJ. Climate, 2004

What Controls the Streamflow Changes?

PDO vs. Local Temperatures

• Correlation between streamflow “center of mass” (minus spring temperature index) and PDO index is weak

• Correlation between streamflow “center of mass” (minus PDO index) and spring temperature index is high

• Local temperatures appear to control the streamflow

Stewart, Cayan and DettingerJ. Climate, 2004

Did the 1999 PDO Reversal Affect

Streamflow Timing?

• Warm period (1977-1998) minus early cool period (1948-1976) streamflow “center of mass” shows earlier timing

• Recent cool period (1999-2000) minus warm period (1977-1998) also shows earlier timing

• PDO reversal does not appear to affect streamflow timing

Stewart, Cayan and DettingerJ. Climate, 2004

Streamflow and temperature anoms: All Stations

Epoch differences

California Current Circulation in a Global Warming Scenario

Baseline: NCEP 50-yr climatology of wind stress and curl

Perturbation: ACPI PCM 2040-2050 climate minus 1986-1996 climate downscaled with RSM

California Current Circulation in a Global Warming Scenario

Baseline: NCEP 50-yr climatology of surface heat flux

Perturbation: ACPI PCM 2040-2050 climate minus 1986-1996 climate downscaled with RSM

Regional SST Changes in a Global Warming Scenario

Baseline: 1 deg C warming over last 50 years of CalCOFI data

Perturbation: Forced by 2040-50 winds and surface heat fluxes, but not BC changes: SST warmed 0.4 - 0.7 deg C

(Auad, Miller, Pierce, Di Lorenzo, in prep)

Mesoscale Eddy Variance Changes in a Global Warming Scenario

Baseline: Offshore variance max increased after 1976-77 shift (Di Lorenzo et al., 2004)

Perturbation: Forced by 2040-50 winds and surface heat fluxes, but not BC changes: variance generally reduced (only 6 yr long run)

(Auad, Miller, Pierce, Di Lorenzo, in prep)

Selected Research Highlights Since Last DOE CCPP Meeting

• Forcing of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Schneider, also see poster)

• Validating climate model higher-order statistics (Pierce/Barnett, also see poster)

• Trends in the onset of western U.S. streamflow and relationship to PDO (Cayan)

• Future changes in California Current circulation under global warming scenario (Miller)

Thanks!

Department of EnergyClimate Change Prediction Program

Grant DE-FG03-01ER63255