Predict the Future Through Social Media
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Transcript of Predict the Future Through Social Media
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Predict the Future Through Social MediaGet ahead of the curve by becoming
a trendspotter
Heidi Sullivan, SVP, Digital Content, @hksullyTom Ritchie, SVP, Product Management, @Tom_Cision#cision
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Trends – Why track them?
Insights into community and consumer behavior
Inspiration/Innovation
Expand knowledge base to become a more electric personality
Speak the language of your community
Create timely story ideas
#cision
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What are we looking for? What can we find with trendspotting?
#cision
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You can’t have an audience without people.
#cision
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And you can’t have effective
marketing if you
can’t reach those
people.
#cision
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66
There is no more silver bullet.
#cision
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Is your content reaching
your intended audience?
Google increased the importance of
original content when they
determine Search Engine Results Page
#cision
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“If the news is
that important, it will find me.”
- A college student in an article by Brian Stelter in the New York
Times, March 2008
#cision
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Why Influencers?
#cision
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1010
The tip of the iceberg
1% of any population will be active content creators
9% will be participants
90% will simply "consume" that content online
- Rohit Bhargava, Influential Marketing Blog
#cision
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The Hush Puppy Concept
No, not these: These:
#cision
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The Hush Puppy Concept
1994 – Hush Puppies struggling
as a brand
A few NYC hipsters started
wearing them
Spread to NYC fashion, then the
rest of the country
Sales exploded by 5000% in 2
years
Q: Do influencers start trends?
#cision
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Duncan Watts’ Online Music Download Study
• 14,000 participants rank 48 songs
• When not provided with others’ ranks, results were completely random
• When provided with group ranks, users followed the herd and word of mouth took over
#cision
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Do influencers truly influence the masses?
Malcolm Gladwell: Law of the Few
“The success of any kind of social epidemic is heavily dependent on the involvement of people with a
particular and rare set of social gifts.”
VS
Duncan Watts: Trends are Unpredictable
“A rare bunch of cool people just don’t have that power. And when you test the way marketers say the world
works, it falls apart.”
#cision
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1515
Who is right: Watts or Gladwell?
Both. Trends still begin with a small few and are spread by those with connections.
Influencers can change over time – and anyone can become an influencer.
However, a general rule of thumb is that influencers tend to talk to each other. #cision
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To identify our
influencers, we
need to identify our tribe.
#cision
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1717
Know your niche – the devil is in the details
About one quarter of bloggers tracked in Cision’s media database cover one of 26 “first tier” general topics. The rest cover more specific topics.
General 23%
Specific 77%
Source: Cision Media Research
#cision
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Influencers Talk to Each Other Once you find one or two influencers in your space, see who
they are talking to and who they reference
#cision
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Yesterday’s Audience – The Bucket Method
Age
Income
Geography
Gender
Race
Marital Status
#cision
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2020
Male
35-44 years old
Income $50K+
Married
Some College
Chicago
Volleyball Player
Starbucks Coffee Drinker
Liberal
Sox/Bears Fan
Avid Fisherman
YouTube Viewer
Food Blogger
Tweets 3x/day on average
100+ Brand/Movie Likes on Facebook
DEMOGRAPHICS PSYCHOGRAPHICS SOCIALGRAPHICS
Deeper understanding of end-users
#cision
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2121
Blogger
Tweets 3x/day
100+ Facebook
Brand Likes
Volleyball Player
Starbucks Coffee Drinker
Liberal
Sox/Bears Fan
Avid Fisherman
Male
35-44 years old
Household Income $50K+
Married
Some College
Chicago
35-44 years
Today’s Consumer inReal-time
#cision
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Look-Alike & Response Models
#cision
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VOLUME VS. ACCELERATION = VELOCITY
#cision
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Share of voice vs. share of trend
Nike vs. New Balance overall blog mentions
% increase Nike vs. New Balance on “barefoot running”
Nike
New Balance
Nike
New Balance
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011
#cision
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Mining internal troves of unstructured data
A new breed of language processing tools is deriving deep
insights from customer conversations
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Advanced text analytics have arrived
• Going beyond mere sentiment detection, modern tools
also provide context and help to mine for attributes (e.g.
the author’s intent)
• A bird’s eye view of unstructured text will show you what
your customers are trying to ask you for
Source: OpenAmplify
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Intent analysis
“I have to ask my sister about which tablet PC to get. She knows all about
those.”
“So many tablets out there! Which one?”
“I’m finally ready to get a tablet. Recommendations?”
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We have access to conversations that we’ve never had before.
• IDENTIFY communities and influencers.
• LISTEN to conversations and blog posts to identify trends and gain insights.
• PARTICIPATE and build relationships, becoming a member of the community (and not just a PR person.)
• RESEARCH trends, companies, technologies and more.
• CREATE real stories about your brand that connect with trends and news of the day in your industry.
#cision
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Trends aren’t just about PR
- From trendwatching.com’s “15 Trend Tips”
#cision
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Predict the Future Through Social MediaQUESTIONS?
Heidi Sullivan, SVP, Digital Content, @hksullyTom Ritchie, SVP, Product Management, @Tom_Cision#cision