Precios y Geopolítica ¿punto de inflexión para la industria? · Precios y Geopolítica ... USA...

Daniel Zweidler, PhDStrategy and Portfolio Advisor

President, Daniel Zweidler & Associates, Inc.Senior Fellow, The Mack Institute for Innovation Management, The Wharton School, UPenn

Precios y Geopolítica¿punto de inflexión para la industria?

@ 2015 Daniel Zweidler & Associates, Inc. 1

Outline

‣ Worldwide distribution of resources

‣ Elements of crude oil prices

‣ Effectiveness of oil price predictions and scenario

thinking

‣ Oil price periods since 1960

‣ Uncertainties and predetermined elements

affecting oil price

‣ Recommendations

2@ 2015 Daniel Zweidler & Associates, Inc.

Global Oil Reserves 2014


U.S. Energy Information Administration0 298Billion bbl

Global Oil Production and Consumption 2012


The geopolitics of oil is about national security and energy (in)dependence

The Elements of Crude Oil Price

Marginal production cost

Supply/Demand

Fundamentals

5© 2015 Daniel Zweidler & Associates, Inc.

Cash

Shares Buyback

Growth

Producer Market

Perceptions,

Anticipations &

Speculations

Shareholders

Governments

Lenders

Dividends

Tax

Interests

Reference Price Forecast 1982-2009U.S. Energy Information Administration


19901985 2000 2010

105

70

35

$/bbl

Overpredicted Underpredicted

100%

-100%

Energy Outlook 2015U.S. Energy Information Administration


Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2015

Annual Energy Outlook 2015

Oil Price Since 1960


140

105

70

35

0

$/bbl

1960 19901980 20151970 2000 2010

OPEC form

ed

ScenariosConvergent Thinking about Divergent Futures

Pierre Wack (1985) Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids, Harvard Business Review


12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

Mbbl/day

1973-1986 Fundamentals Rule


OPEC form

ed

Irania

n R

evolu

tion 1980s

Oil Glut

1960 19901980 20151970 2000 2010

140

105

70

35

0

$/bbl

Saudi Arabia

Iran

1973 A

rab–Is

raeli W

ar/

Ara

b O

il E

mbarg

o

USA

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

Mbbl/day

`

1986-1997 Balanced World


1st Gulf War

1960 19901980 20151970 2000 2010

140

105

70

35

0

$/bbl

Saudi Arabia

Iran

USA

Russia

FUNDAMENTALS RULE

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

Mbbl/day

1997-2011 Fundamentals Rule


1960 19901980 20151970 2000 2010

140

105

70

35

0

$/bbl

Saudi Arabia

Iran

USA

Russia

FUNDAMENTALS RULE

BALANCED WORLD

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

Mbbl/day

2011 Paradigm Shift in Fundamentals


1960 19901980 20151970 2000 2010

140

105

70

35

0

$/bbl

Saudi Arabia

Iran

USA

Russia

FUNDAMENTALS RULE FUNDAMENTALS RULE?

BALANCED WORLD

Key Drivers


201520102005

Saudi Arabia

Russia

USA

Iran

140

105

70

35

0

$/bbl

United Nation Security Council Resolution 2049

Low US Federal Interest Rates

Chinese Economy

Tight Oil and Shale Gas Drilling Productivity


U.S. Energy Information Administration, August 2015

Breakeven Oil Prices


Seven Questions About The Recent Oil Price SlumpPosted on December 22, 2014 by iMFdirectBy Rabah Arezki and Olivier Blanchard

Cartoon from The Economist - Dec 6, 2014

Uncertainties and Predetermined Elements

‣ US shale Boom

‣ Productivity

‣ US Federal Reserves Interest Rate Increase

‣ US’ role as a swing producer vs Saudi Arabia

‣ Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action regarding Iran’s Nuclear Program

‣ Economic Development

‣ GCC, Russia

‣ US Oil Export

‣ Brent Premium

‣ Economic Development

‣ OECD

‣ China, India, Brazil

‣ National and global climate policies

‣ Emergence of a low carbon society


Supply Demand

Two Plausible Scenarios


201520102005

Saudi Arabia

Russia

USA

Iran

140

105

70

35

0

$/bbl

BALANCED WORLD Supply

Demand &Perception

Key Drivers

Recommendations for E&P companies


Looking to increase efficiency & save costs during the downturn? < recipe >

Return on Invested Capital


XOM

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

CVX STO EC ENI OXY BP RDS TOT MRO HES PEGFF REPYF TUWLF APA APC

2005-12 2006-12 2007-12 2008-12 2009-12 2010-12 2011-12 2012-12 2013-12 2014-12 TTM

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

%

%

Cost of Capital

CompetitiveAdvantage

Loss

Cost of Capital

CompetitiveAdvantage

Loss

E&P Prowessmore than just a strategy process


Organizational Ability

Strategic Discipline in Growth-Seeking Activities

GrowthChallenge

GrowthStrategy

Search forOpportunities

Converging onOpportunities

GrowthRealization

Culture: values and beliefs

Capability: skills, technology, and knowledge

Configuration: accountability, decision and resource flow

Recommendations for Colombia’s Oil Sector

‣ Optimize Colombia’s E&P sector for value creation

‣ Government

₋ Communities

₋ FARC

‣ ANH

₋ Re-evaluation of 18 months commitments

‣ Ecopetrol

₋ Organizational Ability (Culture, Capabilities & Configuration)

₋ International Presence

‣ Major IOC

‣ National and International Independents (>100)

‣ Scenario based conversation about future oil (and gas) prices

‣ Balanced World

‣ Fundamentals Rule

‣ Caribbean Offshore can be a game changer


Daniel Zweidler, PhDStrategy and Portfolio Advisor

President, Daniel Zweidler & Associates, Inc.Senior Fellow, The Mack Institute for Innovation Management, The Wharton School, UPenn

Questions and Answers

In everything we do we believe in helping you think differently

@ 2015 Daniel Zweidler & Associates, Inc. 23

topics to be kindly covered

‣ How to understand and what is the new price dynamic? What are the main demand and

supply factors affecting the new price scenarios?

‣ Are we under a normal "price adjustment" or is this a structural change, which would mean

that this is not "business as usual" for both Governments and companies?

‣ What are the likely tendencies that could affect the near, medium and long-term price and

market dynamos for both, oil and gas?

‣ If there is a possible new equilibrium price range, what is it likely to be and why?

‣ What are the new market tendencies and how do the affect OPEC, OECD countries, as well

as other producers (Canada, Russia) or marginal producers like Colombia?

‣ Given the new market reality, what should Governments and companies do to adjust to it?

‣ What do Governments and companies need to do to control costs and be more efficient?

‣ What role does alternative energies and or technology play under these new scenarios?

‣ Given all of the above, how should Colombia prepare, adjust and manage the current and

future situation (Government and companies)?


Panelistas

‣ Mauricio De La Mora- Presidente ANH

‣ Leonardo Villar- Director Fedesarrollo

‣ Pedro Miró Roig- CEO de CEPSA- Compañía Española de Petróleos S.A.U

‣ José Darío Uribe, Banco República


Precios y Geopolítica ¿punto de inflexión para la industria? · Precios y Geopolítica ... USA...

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