Pre-Planning Data Sources: GIS Strategies for Counterinsurgency … · 2009-03-04 · Todd Lizotte...

1Todd Lizotte / Feb 20th 2009Track: Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance

Session: Intelligence Dissemination

PrePre--Planning Data Sources:Planning Data Sources:GIS Strategies for GIS Strategies for

Counterinsurgency OperationsCounterinsurgency Operations

Todd Lizotte, Co-Founder / Managing DirectorOrest Ohar, Co-Founder / Principal EngineerPivotal Development Company, [email protected]

Ph: 603-493-2579Fx: 603-421-0214



Presentation Outline

• Background / Motivation• Counterinsurgency Focus• GIS Modeling Overview• Examples: Micro-Data Sources

FirearmsRural-Urban Battle SpaceBorder Security

• Conclusions/Recommendations



Background / Motivation

• Modify the emphasis of GIS mapping from solely macro level data to a mix of macro/micro data. (Pre-Planning Data Sources – Supporting Theater to Squad Level Operations)

• Emphasize “in real time” Intel by (using shortest time to crime model) Identifying specific insurgent infiltration / locations through relatable data source

• Emphasize that everything provided to the Host nation should be considered an opportunity for monitoring or data source. (Rifles, Handguns, Helmets, Body Armor, Vehicles, Grenades, Mortars, Artillery Shells, MRE’s, etc.)“Things tend to go missing in a war zone!!!! Passive Tags

and Active Tags”1. Chainey, Ratcliffe, “GIS and Crime Mapping” Wiley, 2005



Counterinsurgency Focus

Intelligence Characteristics in CounterinsurgencyCounterinsurgency (COIN) is an intelligence-driven endeavor. Goal is toUnderstand the operational environment.

Intelligence in COIN is about people. Must understand the people of the host nation.How they make decisions, perceptions, values, beliefs, interests and decision making.

Intelligence and Operations feed each other. Closed loop process. Operationsproduce information, which generate more intelligence.

All Operations have an intelligence component. All Soldiers and Marines collectinformation whenever they interact with the populace. Operations should thereforealways include intelligence collection requirements.

Insurgencies are local. They vary greatly in time and space. One insurgency faced byone battalion, will often be different from the one faced by the adjacent Battalion.

COIN occurs in a joint, interagency, and multinational environment. All echelonsneed to participate, Commander and staff must coordinate intelligence collection andanalysis with foreign militaries, foreign and US intelligence services.

US Army Counterinsurgency Handbook, 2007, Chapter 3



Counterinsurgency Focus

Support Govern

ment

Insurgent

Neutral or

Passive

Support Govern

ment

Insurgent

Neutral or

Passive

Atti

tude

of P

opul

ace Security Operations

Develop Security Forces

Better Governance

Essential Services

Economic Development

Information OperationsStarting Conditions End State

1. David Kilcullen, Rand Insurgency Board Presentation 8MAY2008.ppt2. US Army Counterinsurgency Handbook, 2007, Chapter 3

TARGET INSURGENTS OR TRACK THEIR SPHERE OF INFLUENCE WITHIN HOST NATION



GIS Modeling Overview

Insurgent Tracking DataInsurgent Tracking Data

Insurgent Incident DataInsurgent Incident Data

CounterinsurgencyCounterinsurgencyOperationsOperations

Transport Networks &Transport Networks &InfrastructureInfrastructureCensus, DemographicsCensus, Demographics& Land Use& Land Use

Amalgamated GIS MAPAmalgamated GIS MAP

• Data Layers Integrated To Provide Different Perspective

• Data Layers Are AnalyzedAgainst Each Other

• Micro Data Can ProvideHigher Resolution To Analysis



GIS Modeling Overview

GIS has four main components:GIS has four main components:

1.Hardware2.Software3.Data4.People

Without Data its just a map!



GIS Modeling “Various Outputs”

GIS: Exploring Data, Trending Data, Data Patterns, Data Relationships

Where we are!

Operation Planning; howwe plan to do it!

How well we are doing!

How many people are there?



GIS DATA GOAL “Real Time”

Macro Data

Macro Data

MICRO DATA

MICRO DATA

MICRO DATA

MACRO DATA PROVIDES A OVERALL DIRECTION

MICRO DATA CAN BREAK THROUGH TO IDENTIFY A SPECIFIC TARGET



DATA GOAL “Real Time Data”

FRIEND or FOE: Focusing on Identifying Insurgents

Host Nation Military, Police Force, Government Security, Government Workers or the Politicians Themselves!!!

• Which ones support the government?• Which one is an insurgent or Infiltrator / insurgent INTEL Asset?• Which of them could have sympathy for the insurgency? Neutrality?• Which one is a black marketer, supplying the insurgency (The Opportunist)?

Where’s Waldo?



Focus on Micro-Data Sources

Data SourceData SourcePassive Tagging of Firearms “Microstamping”

A. Arming a Host Nation with Foresight: Tracking Insurgent Infiltrators and Black Market Opportunists

B. Maintaining Civilian Gun Rights: Firefight Reconstruction (Friend or Foe ID)



Passive Tagging of Firearms“Microstamping”

1. Lizotte, Et Al, “Microstamping: Border Security Applications”, White Paper, 2008

Re-Arming the Host Nation for National Defense, Law Enforcement & Citizen Gun Ownership

Iraq

Afghanistan

USA




Host NationDefense & Law Enforcement

Host NationMilitias / NG Security Groups

Microstamped Prior to Export(Government Firearm Vendors)

Microstamped in the Field“Insurgent Active Areas”

Mobile Microstamping

Planned ImplementationPlanned Implementation In situ ImplementationIn situ Implementation

1. Lizotte, Et Al, “Microstamping: Border Security Applications”, White Paper, 2008



17


A cartridge case at the scene of offence could prove as incriminating as

if the murderer had left his visiting card!-Sir Sydney Smith (1883 – 1969)

INVESTIGATIVE LEADS (MURDERS), FIREFIGHT RECONSTRUCTION,

AND INSURGENT TRACKING



Firearm Cycles & Ejects

Cartridge Evidence




MARKS LEFT ON EXPENDED CARTRIDGE CASINGS(cycle of fire marks & microstamping marks)

EJECTOR MARK

FIRING PINAPERTURE MARK

FIRING PIN IMPRESSION

FIRING PIN DRAG MARK

BREECHFACE MARK

CUT-OUT MARKMAGAZINE MARK

EJECTION PORTMARK

CHAMBER STRIATIONS

EXTRACTOR OVERRIDE & GOUGE MARKS

FIRING PIN MICROSTAMP

BREECHFACEMICROSTAMP




8 Digit Code

SW10

1233

Breach Face Mark

Gear Code

Head Stamp / Casing

Primer

SW10

1233Firing Pin Mark

SW10

1233





Age of Firearms that can be outfittedAntiques New Models

Types of Firearms that can be outfittedHandguns Heavy Machine Guns

Handguns Heavy Machine Guns

.22, .25, .380,.45, 30-06, 7.62 mm, 9 mm, .50 etc.“If it has a firing pin or breach face, it can be outfitted!”

All Calibers



• Microstamping leverages existing forensic analysis techniques and Infrastructure (FBI / BATFE / ARMY)(Squad level analysis using portable hand microscope.)

• Microstamping = Fresh GIS Intel / Trafficking Routes & Insurgent Patterns / Time (Temporal Progression), Location, Re-Location / Black Markets

(Identifies the firearm the first time it is used in a fire fight)

• It targets the supply side of firearm trafficking including insurgent infiltrators or rouge security forces, rouge police units and opportunistic black market dealers.

Benefit of Microstamping: Tracking/Trace Data!!!




Passive Tagging of Firearms“GIS Mapping”

GIS Mapping (Firearm Movement):GIS Mapping (Firearm Movement):

1.1. Confiscated FirearmsConfiscated Firearms

2.2. Firearm Trafficking RoutesFirearm Trafficking Routes

3.3. Insurgent Migration RoutesInsurgent Migration Routes

4.4. Insurgent Force Size EstimatesInsurgent Force Size Estimates

5.5. Insurgent Hot SpotsInsurgent Hot Spots



Police issued firearm used in insurgent activity(Time, Date, Number of Rounds)

Passive Tagging of Firearms“GIS Mapping”

1

2

3

5

6

4

Suspected Police Station

GIS Maps: Combining Macro/Micro (Thematic, Spatial Statistics, TGIS Maps: Combining Macro/Micro (Thematic, Spatial Statistics, Temporal, etc) Data Setsemporal, etc) Data Sets



Data SourceData Source

Passive Tagging / Rural-Urban Battle Space / IED Detection

A. Squad Level Portable Technology: Foot Traffic Detection (IR) / Fluorescent / Magnetic Material Methods

Passive Tagging / Foot Traffic / IED“GIS Mapping”




Squad / Individual Soldier Level ProductSquad / Individual Soldier Level ProductIR & UV Excited Fluorescent Intruder DetectionIR & UV Excited Fluorescent Intruder Detection

Place on ground to determine use of buildingPlace on ground to determine use of buildingMovement during night time hours / trackingMovement during night time hours / tracking

1. Fluorescent Powder1. Fluorescent Powder2. Magnetic/Fluorescent2. Magnetic/Fluorescent

PowderPowder3. Retro3. Retro--Reflective MicroReflective Micro

Optical Elements / SpheresOptical Elements / Spheres4. Fluorescent Electrostatic4. Fluorescent Electrostatic

Cling SpheresCling Spheres




Check PointCheck PointIdentification ofIdentification of

IntrudersIntruders(Hands, clothes, Shoes(Hands, clothes, Shoes

Or Vehicles Or Vehicles –– Tires)Tires)

Place on ground at choke points enteringPlace on ground at choke points enteringa village, town, or border area of interesta village, town, or border area of interest

Laser and Handheld UV/IR Light SourcesLaser and Handheld UV/IR Light Sources




Place on ground at choke points enteringPlace on ground at choke points enteringa village, town or border area of interest.a village, town or border area of interest.

Deploy Magnetic Fluorescent DustDeploy Magnetic Fluorescent DustOr Retro reflective Spheres Or Retro reflective Spheres

(Attachable to Cars / Trucks)(Attachable to Cars / Trucks)

Deploy High Brightness Fluorescent DustDeploy High Brightness Fluorescent Dust(Attachable to Cars / Trucks)(Attachable to Cars / Trucks)



Ariel Fluorescent SignatureAriel Fluorescent SignatureDetection (Disturbance) IR Detection (Disturbance) IR Night SurveillanceNight Surveillance

Hidden Trigger TeamHidden Trigger Team

Second Trigger TeamSecond Trigger Team

#2 IED#2 IED

#1 IED#1 IED

IED CacheIED Cache

Security Check PointSecurity Check PointID or Safe HouseID or Safe House


Trail DetectionTrail Detection

Road / Area ofRoad / Area ofInterestInterest

Fluorescent DustFluorescent Dust

Dust on TruckDust on Truck




Aerial View of MultiAerial View of Multi--ShellShellDaisy Chained IEDDaisy Chained IED

Macro Data Set of IED EventsMacro Data Set of IED Events

Can Data Be Mined To FindCan Data Be Mined To FindMO of IED Bombers?MO of IED Bombers?

Macro GIS Module Macro GIS Module –– Micro GIS Elements (Selectable Levels of Data Micro GIS Elements (Selectable Levels of Data ““ResolutionResolution””))






• Conclusions / Recommendations



Active Sensors / Border Security

Active Sensors & Tagging – Sensor Arrays

Border Security (Iraq, Afghanistan & USA)Border Security (Iraq, Afghanistan & USA)



Hitachi Hitachi ““MaxwellMaxwell”” Nano RFIDNano RFID

Active Sensors &Tagging – Micro Sensors!

Active Sensors / Border Security

Sensors:Sensors:• Motion (Vibe Detection)• Cameras (Transmitters)• Pressure (Vehicle)• Magnetic RFID Dust• Passive Fluorescent Dust

DeployableDeployable:• Squad Level (Temporary Night Perimeter)• Fire Base (Extended Perimeter)

Base Station:Base Station:• Handheld (Cell, PDA, etc)• Laptop• Command Base

Air Drop TechnologyAir Drop Technology

UC Berkeley and MLB Co.UC Berkeley and MLB Co.



Active Tagging – Micro Sensors!Active Sensors / Border Security

Check PointCheck Point

BorderBorder

Active SensorActive SensorArrayArray

GIS / Real Time -Micro Data

1. Noam Sapiens, UC Berkley, Smartdust.ppt



Conclusion / Recommendation• Implementing Microstamping to firearms imported for use by Host Nations can provide many opportunities for targeting insurgents, closing black market firearm trafficking and provide investigative leads for killings.

• Small Scale / Soldier Deployable Taggants (Fluorescent Dust) etc – will provide opportunities to extract data on insurgent modus operandi and detection of persons of interest at check points.

• GIS is a powerful tool, modules that allow for real time data acquisition via sensor arrays and RFID tracking of tagged materials (Gear or Bait) would be helpful in understanding temporal behavior of various groups within a Host Country.



Conclusion / Recommendation

Thank you for your time.

Pre-Planning Data Sources: GIS Strategies for Counterinsurgency … · 2009-03-04 · Todd Lizotte...

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