Pre-flight and In- flight use of CAT Forecasts Turbulence Workshop NCAR, Boulder CO By: Ian Gray...

Pre-flight and In-flight use of CAT ForecastsTurbulence Workshop

NCAR, Boulder COBy: Ian Gray

Senior Portfolio Manager

SITA Aircraft Services

2 | Use of CAT Forecasts | Confidential | © SITA 2013

Overview

• Introduction to SITA• Overview of FMS Wind Uplink• Our experiences with uplink of trial CAT data• Thoughts so far & next steps• Questions

AIRLINES

GOVERNMENTS

GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION

SYSTEMS

AIRPORTS

AEROSPACE

INTERNATIONALORGANIZATIONS

AIR CARGO

Who We AreSITA is owned by the air transport industry

As a unique hybrid commercial-cooperative model

We work collaboratively with:

AIR NAVIGATION

SERVICE PROVIDERS

AIRCRAFT& AIRFRAME

MAKERS



Background

• SITA provides an FMS Wind Uplink service, providing updated forecast wind data to the FMS, using standard AEEC format, at each GRIB2 update cycle

• Data presentation is tailored to the varying capabilities of each FMS equipment type• e.g. Honeywell variation in waypoint support between Boeing and

Airbus versions of the ‘same’ equipment• Provision of updated forecast wind data provides the FMS with a more

accurate view of the wind conditions ahead• Winds aloft predictions are interpolated

to each waypoint and weighted basedon horizontal, vertical andtemporal proximity of eachwaypoint to the source datareference points

WaypointWaypoint

GRIB ‘area’ GRIB ‘area’GRIB reference points

Prognosis Prognosis


Background (cont’d)

• Updated wind forecasts showing more favorable conditions vs. the original flight plan provide opportunities for fuel saving with on-time arrival

• Wind updates showing less favorable conditions vs. the original flight plan give early warning of the potential for greater fuel burn

• Anecdotal evidence from participating airlines have shown an average improvement of 100kg fuel usage across a mixed long/medium/short haul fleet (<1hr to 12+ hours sectors)

• Measured peak savings for wide body aircraft on long haul sectors @ 400-600kg


Wind Uplink Comparison:

Separate flight plan provider; separate WAFC model dataWind Uplink –updated forecast

Wind Uplink based onsame data as CFP


CAT Uplink

• Feedback from airlines using Wind Uplink highlighted a desire to evaluate the test CAT forecast product included in our WAFC data in conjunction with wind updates

• It is difficult to present CAT data in the cockpit environment:• CAT data capability isn’t native to FMS equipment• EFB programmes are very varied among airlines in

terms of applications, devices and connectivity• In order to quickly establish a trial of CAT that could easily

be applied to the majority of aircraft equipment types, we developed a simple solution around the cockpit printer / MCDU


CAT Uplink

• CAT data is provided either independently or in addition to a corresponding FMS Wind Uplink

• Data is provided for 3 ‘swathes’ of flight levels, centred around the cruise level

• The CAT values are interpolated horizontally to each waypoint position, weighting values according to proximity

Turbulence forecast taken at 07/05/2013 1838Z using Forecast 1200ZCAT forecast updated daily at 0530 1130 1730 2330 UTCAircraft registration: XX-XXX//ALL DATA PROVIDED IS FOR EVALUATION ONLY//

FL FL FL 280-320 320-360 360-410 AVG-MAX AVG-MAX AVG-MAX ------- ------- -------RUDASSOKIMMNV 1.0-3.7BUGROVUEAMSUXVORVIONRONGURUTAMLOD -1.4 -1.8AMSIK -2.0 -3.6USMAK -1.2 -2.3KENUK

DELIS -4.1AGRIM -2.4INISANEBRA 1.2-5.0 -3.6TOBUK -1.8 2.0-6.0 3.2-6.0TIDOU -3.9BOD -2.0 -3.6 1.3-4.8SOMIL -3.9 1.3-4.7 -2.2NITAR -3.9 1.0-4.4 -1.8


CAT Uplink Trials

• From the test cases we have run with participating airlines, we have found the following:• We have observed evidence of greater accuracy of

forecast CAT in the WAFC data for those areas with good source data coverage

• The captured actual data vs. forecast data indicates a correlation between the forecast probability values and the experienced severity of CAT


CAT Uplink Trials

• Actual vs. Forecast – area of good source data coverage


CAT Uplink Trials

• Actual vs. Forecast – area of poor source data coverage


CAT Uplink Trials• Actual vs. Forecast – wider data capture (seatbelt on/off)


CAT Uplink Trials• Actual vs. Forecast – wider data capture (crew annotations)


CAT in Flight Planning

• In addition to showing where CAT is predicted to be, airlines also want to know where it isn’t!

• Knowledge of CAT at various levels adds value to the flight planning process:• Many pilots will instinctively climb to avoid areas of CAT• Some aircraft perform more

economically belowoptimum cruise than above

• Factoring in wing loadingvalues of different aircrafttypes can dictate tolerancevalues for passenger operations


Conclusions so far…

• Uplink of CAT data is useful in strategic decision making as it provides data that is sometimes contrary to a pilot’s instinctive reaction to CAT

• CAT forecasts (at least, at 1.25 resolution) aren’t yet good enough on which to base a flight plan calculation – at present its value lies as an uplink to provide pilots with a more general view

• The GRIB 2 test CAT data works quite well when considered holistically rather than reading the data literally

• Graphical representation of both clear air and convective turbulence fits well into an EFB solution, however for many airlines this poses practical problems• Suitable EFB solution• Cost (and sometimes availability) of bandwidth


Next steps…

• Extend trials to use of higher resolution source data• Currently looking into the possibility of ingesting high

resolution CAT forecast to evaluate the impact on data accuracy

• Removes the need to present average and max values

QUESTIONS?


Pre-flight and In- flight use of CAT Forecasts Turbulence Workshop NCAR, Boulder CO By: Ian Gray...

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