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India Votes 2019General Elections: Pre-election Analysis

The 2019 General Elections are due to be held in India across April and May 2019 to constitute the 17th Lok Sabha. The Election Commission has announced a seven-phase poll schedule from April 11 to May 19, culminating in the results on May 23. The tenure of the current BJP-led NDA Government under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to end on May 26, 2019.

The Lok Sabha (the Lower House of Parliament) has a total of 543 Members of Parliament (MPs), with each MP representing a single geographic constituency within a State or Union Territory. In addition, the President of India can nominate two Anglo-Indian representatives in case the community is inadequately represented. A total of 272 seats are required for a majority government. The Lok Sabha can have a maximum of 552 members as outlined in the Constitution of India. However, there is a freeze on the number of seats until 2026.

Volume I, March 2019

Phase Number of States

Seats Statewise Poll Details

Phase I – April 11 20 91 Andhra (25), Arunachal (2), Assam (5), Bihar (4), Chhattisgarh (1), J&K (2), Maharashtra (7), Manipur (1), Meghalaya (2), Mizoram (1), Nagaland (1), Odisha (4), Sikkim (1), Telangana (17), Tripura (1), UP (8), Uttarakhand (5), West Bengal (2), Andaman (1), Lakshadweep (1)

Phase II – April 18 13 97 Assam (5), Bihar (5), Chhattisgarh (3), J&K (2), Karnataka (14), Maharashtra (10), Manipur (1), Odisha (5), Tamil Nadu (39), Tripura (1), UP (8), West Bengal (3), Puducherry (1)

Phase III – April 23 14 115 Assam (4), Bihar (5), Chhattisgarh (7), Gujarat (26), Goa (2), J&K (1), Karnataka (14), Kerala (20), Maharashtra (14), Odisha (6), UP (10), West Bengal (5), Dadra and Nagar Haveli (1), Daman and Diu (1)

Phase IV – April 29 9 71 Bihar (5), J&K (1), Jharkhand (3), MP (6), Maharashtra (17), Odisha (6), Rajasthan (13), UP (13), West Bengal (8); Total: 71

Phase V – May 6 7 51 Bihar (5), J&K (2), Jharkhand (4), MP (7), Rajasthan (12), UP (14), West Bengal (7)

Phase VI – May 12 7 59 Bihar (8), Haryana (10), Jharkhand (4), MP (8), UP (14), West Bengal (8), Delhi-NCR (7)

Phase VII – May 19 8 59 Bihar (8), Jharkhand (3), MP (8), Punjab (13), West Bengal (9), Chandigarh (1), UP (13), Himachal (4)

Pre-election analysis: general elections 2019

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The 2014 General Elections were conducted across nine phases between April 7 and May 12, the longest election in the country’s history. The BJP won 282 seats, with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) securing a total of 336 seats. The BJP became the first party in 30 years to have secured a single majority in the lower house of Parliament with other political parties failing to qualify as principal opposition, as none of them had the minimum 54 seats, 1/10th of the total house strength to secure that role. The BJP had a vote share of 51 per cent, with the Indian National Congress (INC) shrinking to only 19.3 per cent. The 2014 elections saw a voters’ turnout of 66.2 per cent, the highest since the previous high of 64 per cent in 1984.

A “None of the Above” option was introduced for the first time on the ballot papers and electronic voting machines in the general elections. The option was introduced after activist groups claimed that voters were too often forced to choose between several candidates having criminal backgrounds. Though last general elections, country’s 59,97,054 voters punched the NOTA button on the electronic voting machines, which equals to minimal 1.1 per cent of the total votes polled during these elections across 543 seats.

Party Key Focus Areas

Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) Following BJP’s electoral loss in three key states (Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh) to the opposition INC, the Budget 2019 marked the last major opportunity for the BJP to consolidate support from its voter base. The government announced measures to boost support from rural voters, the middle class, small and medium enterprises and the poorer sections of upper castes hitherto left out of reservations.

To address the Agrarian Crisis, the government announced the ‘PM Kisan Samman Nidhi Yojana’ as well as increased budget allocation for agriculture by 144 per cent.

Job creation is one of the key focus areas for the BJP. Going by the pre-poll promise of one crore jobs per year by PM Modi, around 8.4 lakh jobs should have been created every month. The updated EPFO payroll data released in January shows a monthly average of 4.90 lakh only. This will be a key expectation from the BJP if it again forms the government.

Nationalism, with Hindu nationalism as a sub-theme, will be a major theme on the agenda of the BJP as the party supports the building of the Ram temple on the disputed land in Ayodhya. The happenings at Pulwama and the retaliation at Balakot has emerged as a big part of the Modi narrative for the elections.

Health will be on the priority list, evidenced by the launch of Ayushman Bharat, termed as the ‘world’s largest government-funded healthcare program’.

The upliftment of poor and marginalised would continue to be the priority. This includes rural electrification, LPG connections, housing for all and infrastructure development, among others.

The Citizenship Amendment Bill, which plans to change the definition of illegal migrants in India, is also on BJP’s list of deliverables after it forms the next government.

2014 general elections – a snapshot

Focus areas for major political parties in 2019

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Party Key Focus Areas

Indian National Congress (INC)

Congress has launched a website seeking inputs into its election manifesto. This move is aimed an outreach towards potential voters, making common people stakeholders in the party’s 2019 Lok Sabha campaign. The party has drawn up its 2019 strategies, taking guidance from the key issues that led to electoral gains in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.

The party is likely to forcefully leverage Rahul Gandhi’s announcement to provide a minimum guaranteed income, with an eye on addressing both rural distress and unemployment. This is the first time that any party in India has considered the idea of social welfare and security.

The party will also focus on the effects of what it says was an ill-conceived and badly executed demonetisation exercise that left thousands without money and income.

Agrarian stress is likely to be a key focus area, evidenced in its recent promise for a nationwide farm loan waiver, like what it announced immediately after taking power last year in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. The party recently announced that it would launch a pan-India agitation to expose the Union Government.

Reinforce focus on the youth by aggressively raising the issue of unemployment and target the government’s implementation of GST that directly impacted the small and medium enterprises/ traders.

The party is likely to focus on improving human capital such as education, health and social security.

The Congress has also put the Citizenship Amendment Bill on its agenda, as it has already announced its intention to withdraw it completely, if it comes to power.

Party Key Focus Areas

Samajwadi Party (SP) – Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)

In a major realignment for the 2019 general elections, Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) have formed an alliance and will contest an equal number of seats in Uttar Pradesh. Both parties are also expected to continue their alliance for the assembly elections, slated for early 2022.

SP-BSP are likely to focus on the issue of unemployment amongst youth in the state, as the rate of unemployment has increased ever since BJP came to power.

Agrarian distress and welfare of farmers is a key priority. Funds to be initiated for farmers to facilitate them with cash reserves at the time of distress.

Focus on building a strong metro train network in the state and speeding up expansion of the network.

The alliance is expected to focus on infrastructure development including highway construction, river front development in prominent cities and electrification of villages.

Welfare for all communities would also be part of the alliance’s election agenda as BSP claims this to be its USP.

Other regional parties

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Party Key Focus Areas

All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) TMC has focused on social and economic empowerment of minorities. The party

would work to empower and mainstream them so that they could live with pride and self-confidence.

Empowerment of women and girl child is also a key priority area.

Provision of health services to each and every village and development of health infrastructure at the district and state level.

Employment generation and industrial growth in the state would be a priority as they are important pillars of overall development.

Party Key Focus Areas

All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK)

AIADMK wants to strengthen the education system of the state by providing financial assistance to help the poor and needy.

The party is expected to focus on promoting advanced healthcare, not just in urban areas but rural areas as well, including maternity assistance.

Promotion of social welfare and social security schemes to benefit the people. It includes schemes such as Indira Awas Yojana to provide better housing infrastructure as well as marriage assistance schemes for girls from poor families

Financial assistance to farmers and fisher folks is also likely to be a focus.

Party Key Focus Areas

Telangana Rashtriya Samiti (TRS)

Telangana Rashtriya Samiti has a stronghold over Telangana and swept the state by winning 88 out of the 119 seats in December 2018. It has projected itself to win 16 out of the 17 Lok Sabha seats in the state, relying heavily on its welfare schemes.

TRS has focused heavily on the agricultural sector. Rs 12,000 crores allocated for the financial year 2018-19. Investment support for sgriculture and horticulture crops is being provided through a grant of Rs. 4,000/- per acre per farmer each season.

Schemes like Aarogya Lakshmi and KCR kit target pregnant women by providing one nutritious meal a day and also a kit of necessary essentials like baby oil, mosquito nets etc for women in the late stages of pregnancy.

The ‘housing for the poor’ plan provides for two and three storied buildings with the 2 BHK flats in Hyderabad and other urban areas while they are to be built as independent houses in rural areas.

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Party Key Focus Areas

Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)

DMK has announced its alliance with the Congress for the General Elections. This would be the first time that DMK would go to polls without its patriarch, M Karunanidhi.

The DMK has promised to waive off loans for all women SHGs if the DMK-Congress alliance win the polls.

DMK has promised to waive off all the educational loans and is likely to mention this promise in its poll manifesto.

The DMK has been seeking waiver of all farm loans since 2016 and had also put it as one of its poll promises in 2016. It is likely to be included in its manifesto.

Party Key Focus Areas

Biju Janta Dala (BJD)Providing pucca house for all was one of the key promises made by BJD in the past. The party may make this as one of its central poll promises.

BJD has been pushing the Centre for granting a special status to the state.The BJP government had promised it too but did not deliver.

Agrarian distress has been a major issue in the state, the state government had passed the KALIA scheme for direct benefit transfer to farmers and landless farmers. Similar promises are on the cards for the Lok Sabha polls.

A look at the Opinions Polls

Polls continue to favour the NDA

Polls released so far suggest that the incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by BJP continues to lead, although most surveys show that it will likely fall short of the 272 seats required to claim an outright majority. Much will ride on caste arithmetic, alliances and campaigning.

Source: Media reports

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Month Polling agency NDA UPA Others Verdict

March ‘19 ABP News - Cvoter 264 141 138 Hung

March ‘19 India TV -CNX 285 126 132 NDA

March ‘19 Zee 24 Taas 264 165 114 Hung

Opinion polls released in March project the BJP-led coalition inching closer to the halfway mark.

Three opinion polls released this month, the first since the India-Pakistan conflict, show that BJP has clawed back some of the lost electoral ground and is inching closer to the half-way mark. With its tough stand on national security appears to have bought it additional 30-40 seats, majorly in UP and Maharashtra, since the last poll.

Efforts for forming alliances are in full swing, with Modi’s BJP forging partnerships in the states of Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu in recent weeks. The Indian National Congress (INC) led by Rahul Gandhi has so far sealed agreements in Tamil Nadu and Jharkhand, even as it had opted to go alone in the state of Delhi. The NDA continues to be the favourite to form the next government, although it might lose its absolute majority, most polls show.

Can a united opposition triumph over Modi?

Note: Simple majority mark = 272 seats. Source: India Today, India TV, ABP News, Twitter, ABP News, Wikipedia, Times Now News and Nomura Global Economics.

Source: Media reports

As per some surveys, the BJP could garner close to 200 seats, while the opposition’s Grand Alliance (GA) may secure close to 150+ seats, as per certain media reports (“2019 Lok Sabha Elections Times Now-VMR Opinion Poll: NDA may fall 20 seats short of magic mark of 272,” Times Now, 31 January 2019). The BJP may make some gains in eastern India, which may help offset projected losses in the north, where it faces a formidable alliance in Uttar Pradesh, India’s largest province, suggest media reports.

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State Lok Sabha Seats 2014 Results

Uttar Pradesh 80 Bharatiya Janta Party – 71Samajwadi Party – 5

Maharashtra 48 Bharatiya Janta Party – 23Shiv Sena – 18

West Bengal 42 All India Trinamool Congress – 34Indian National Congress – 4

Bihar 40 Bharatiya Janta Party – 22Lok Janshakti Party – 6

Tamil Nadu 39 AIADMK – 37Bharatiya Janta Party – 1

Madhya Pradesh 29 Bharatiya Janta Party – 27Indian National Congress – 02

Rajasthan 25 Bharatiya Janata Party – 25

Kerala 20 United Democratic Front – 12Left Democratic Front – 8

Power matrix – critical states to watch out for

In India, 24 states and seven Union Territories have less than 30 Lok Sabha constituencies, while the remaining five states contribute 249 seats, which is around 46 per cent of the total seat share in Lok Sabha. Therefore, the political parties are expected to focus acutely in these power centres, with support from their regional allies.

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Mentioned below is a brief analysis of the current on-ground political scenario in these states:

Uttar PradeshUttar Pradesh sends 80 lawmakers to the Parliament, the largest number for any state in India, establishing the high stakes for any party that hopes to form government at the Centre.

The electoral alliance agreed upon by the Bahujan Samaj Party and Samajwadi Party, seems to stem from the consideration that in the 2014 general elections, the combined vote share of the SP and the BSP stood at 41.8 per cent, whereas BJP had a vote share of 42.3 per cent that helped the latter translate into a massive 71 seats. The BSP-SP alliance could reduce BJP and its allies’ share of 73 seats by more than half, if the cadre of these two traditional enemies, and now alliance partners, are able to reconcile their differences. Meanwhile, the formal entry of Priyanka Gandhi into politics, by her taking charge of eastern Uttar Pradesh is expected to rejuvenate the party’s cadre in the state, where it managed to secure only 7.5 per cent vote share in 2014. For the upcoming elections, SP will field its candidates on 37 seats while BSP has taken the charge of 38 seats. However, the alliance has decided not to contest from Rae Bareli and Amethi, which have been the stronghold of Congress. This has ended the speculations of a major alliance between SP-BSP and Congress. For BJP, how well it balances the caste arithmetic vis-à-vis the BSP-SP combine while neutralising the anti-incumbency factor will be crucial to its prospects.

MaharashtraWith Maharashtra contributing 45 parliamentary seats to the Lok Sabha, it remains the second most important state after Uttar Pradesh, about the general elections. BJP and the Shiv Sena have sealed their alliance, with BJP set to contest on 25 seats and Shiv Sena on 23 seats. They have also agreed to contest equal number of seats in the upcoming state assembly elections. The main opposition, the NCP and Congress have already formed an alliance and finalized the seat sharing agreement for the upcoming elections. The NCP President Sharad Pawar has announced his comeback and will contest from Madha, the constituency he won in 2009.

In the 2014 general elections, the BJP and Shiv Sena had a combined vote share of 48.4 per cent with 41 seats (BJP – 23 and Shiv Sena – 18), while Congress-NCP secured 34.4 per cent vote share with only six seats. The caste combinations especially in the western Maharashtra part had favoured Congress and NCP till 2014 with both being Maratha-dominated parties. It will be interesting to see this time how Maratha votes swing post reservation, an issue which was a political firestorm in Maharashtra for much of the last two years.

The BJP is resting its hopes on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s charisma backed by major infrastructure projects and urban initiatives such Metro rail, Smart City mission and international airport at Purandar, besides highway projects at Satara and Solapur for rural voters. The party has five municipal corporations under its control.

Maharashtra has seen serious rural distress during the past four and half years as a result of drought and problems of glut. Farmer suicides in Vidharbha and Marathwada regions have continued, though this has so far not impacted BJP’s string of successes in municipal and other local body elections.

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BiharBihar is another major battleground for political parties in the Lok Sabha elections, with 40 seats at stake. In the upcoming elections, there will be a face-to-face battle between the two main contenders – BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and Congress-led Grand Alliance, which includes Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal and RLSP, among others.

BJP emerged as the single largest party in Bihar in the 2014 elections, with a total of 22 seats and 29.9% votes, whereas LJP, RJD and Congress won six, four and two seats respectively, with 6.5 per cent, 20.5 per cent and 8.6 per cent votes.

The alliance configuration has since changed in Bihar as far as the NDA is concerned. Chief Minisister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) was part of the UPA in 2014. It is now part of the BJP-led NDA. Whereas it won just two seats in 2014, it has forced a beleaguered BJP to concede ground in the new alliance. The BJP that won 22 seats earlier now rests content with 17 in a seat sharing arrangment, allowing the JD(U) to move from two to contest 17. In other words, the BJP as a party has already “lost” five seats before the contest has even begun in Bihar!

While the NDA alliance would be hopeful of repeating the 2014 election results, it would be a litmus test for the Grand Alliance to oust the BJP from the state. However, the sharing of seats between the Grand Alliance would not be an easy task as Jitan Ram Manjhi, a leader of one of the Alliance partners, Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), has expressed his dissatisfaction over the number of seats allocated to his party.

Deteriorating law and order and rising corruption are issues in focus.

West BengalThe Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress remains a formidable force in West Bengal after her party fought the 2014 elections single-handedly and won 34 seats with a vote share of 39.8 per cent. The state has seen intense political activity, beginning with the deterioration of the CPM to the emergence of TMC, and recently a tussle between the Centre and the West Bengal government over CBI’s move against Kolkata Police Commissioner Rajeev Kumar. It is a harbinger of how competitive the political battle is expected to be in West Bengal. It has helped project Mamata Banerjee as the symbol of Bengali pride, fighting the BJP-led central government seeking to erode the federal structure of the Indian state and the “independence” of Bengalis. How the electorate in West Bengal reacts to this narrative is expected to decide the outcome of the elections.

Political analysts believe the 2019 elections would be a head-on contest between the TMC and BJP, with the Left Front and the Congress relegated to the side lines in the state. In the 2014 general election, Congress registered a drop in its vote share to 9.7 per cent from 13.6 per cent in 2009 and TMC’s vote declined by 10 percentage points, while the BJP recorded its highest vote share of 16.8 per cent. This enabled BJP to accelerate its emergence as a primary opponent to the TMC in West Bengal. A pre-poll “anti-TMC, anti-BJP” alliance between the Left Front and Congress is also a possibility since both parties came together in the 2016 Assembly elections which helped Congress emerge as the second-largest party in the Assembly. However, things have changed a lot since 2016 as both the Left and Congress have consistently lost ground to the BJP.

In its bid to raise its vote share, the BJP has been playing the “Hindu card” to the hilt in the state with its “Rath yatras” and Ram Navami processions seeking to portray Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee as a “Muslim appeaser.” Not to be outdone, the feisty Banerjee has countered by playing the “Bengali card,” stating that it is Durga and the Mother Goddess who is Bengal’s real and only presiding deity and not Ram. She has also portrayed the BJP as an “anti-Bengali” party with its Citizenship Register calculated to discriminate against Bengalis in general in the North-east.

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Tamil NaduTamil Nadu is a classic example demonstrating the strength of regional parties and their crucial role in the formation of a government at the Centre. With the 2019 Lok Sabha elections just few weeks away, the political parties in the state have finalized their seat-sharing agreements. The BJP and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) have officially announced their alliance, with the former contesting on five seats. Similarly, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and Congress have also finalised the seat sharing, with the Congress contesting on nine seats in the state.

AIADMK, under the leadership of late J. Jayalalithaa, secured 37 out of the 39 Lok Sabha seats in the 2014 elections, with a vote share of 44.9 per cent. BJP and PMK got 1 seat each, while the Congress and the DMK did not win any Parliamentary seat. The upcoming elections would be a test for AIADMK and DMK as the parties will contest for the first time in the last 30 years without both, Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi.

However, the ruling AIADMK is ridden with factionalism and lacks any charismatic leader. The DMK’s MK Stalin still carries the sheen of his late father, former CM M Karunanidhi and leads a relatively united party. The state usually votes on the basis of a “revolving door” with the party in power giving way to the one in opposition, both having been part of the original DMK at one point of time. The BJP has also been identified as a “North Indian, Hindi-speaking” organisation, both anathema in Tamil Nadu, manipulating the relatively weak and faction ridden AIADMK.

With 39 seats at stake, the BJP and Congress know the regional alliance is the key to making inroads in the state as the regional parties gained control in majority of the 15 Assembly Elections and 16 General Elections held so far in the state since Independence.

North EastThe political importance of eight states in the North East cannot be ruled out as they account for 25 seats in the Lok Sabha. The BJP wants to capitalise on its current position as the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) managed to form the government in seven of the eight states in the assembly elections. The BJP is looking at the region to make up its losses in the Hindi heartland states. To retain its position, PM Modi recently launched a series of key development projects in the region including Greenfield Airport at Hollongi, Sela Pass Tunnel, Pare hydroelectric power plant, Northeast Gas Grid and Garjee-Belonia railway line. But these are still virtually work in progress. However, the controversial Citizenship Amendment Bill can dent the BJP’s winning spree in the region. Although the Bill has lapsed after it failed to be tabled in the Upper House, its repercussion can be seen in the upcoming elections as the BJP’s allies in the region are against the Bill. Moreover, the Congress will not leave this opportunity to target BJP as it already announced its intention to completely withdraw the Citizenship Bill once it comes to power. The proposed Bill was designed to allow minority refugees from neighbouring Bangladesh (Hindus) to become Indian citizens. These would be Bengalis unacceptable to the local populace at large.

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KeralaKerala has 20 Lok Sabha seats up for grabs in the general elections. In the 2014 elections, the Congress-led UDF won 12 seats, the CPI-M-led Left Front had won 8 seats while the BJP managed to win just one. Out of the 12 seats, the Congress won in 8, while its allies, the Indian Union Muslim League won two, and the Revolutionary Socialist Party and Kerala Congress (Mani) won one seat each.

The politics in Kerala is dominated by the CPI (M) led Left Democratic Front and the Congress led United Democratic Front. The state also has had a consistent history of anti-incumbency since 1982 with government’s alternating between the UDF and LDF leaderships. The 2016 state elections were bagged by LDF winning 91 out of the 140 seats.

RajasthanRajasthan has a strong history of anti-incumbency. Since 1993 the state has always alternated between the BJP and Congress in the assembly elections and reflected similar fluctuations since 1998 regarding the general elections. BJP in 2014 had swept Rajasthan, bagging all the 25 Lok Sabha seats. If the recently concluded assembly polls are any indication, the BJP could lose at least 16 Lok Sabha seats in Rajasthan. It is one of the few states where the general election results largely reflect the outcome of the assembly elections. Congress is certainly looking at Rajasthan with a lot of hope and optimism subsequent to it winning 100 seats in the state assembly elections.

Since September last year, when the Supreme Court pronounced its historic verdict allowing women of all ages to enter the Sabarimala temple, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been trying its best to use the opportunity to increase its support base in Kerala. Kerala BJP is eyeing the anti-left space that has been occupied by the Congress and its alliance partners for decades. However, for BJP to lodge its first ever Lok Sabha win from the state it will need a massive vote swing in its favour.

The talks in the state about a possible alliance between the CPI (M) and the Congress to take on the BJP hit a road block due to incidents of political violence. The CPI-M at its Central Committee meeting had reiterated that its electoral tactics in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections will be based on defeating the BJP alliance, increasing the strength of the CPI-M and the Left in the Lok Sabha and ensuring that an alternative secular government is formed at the Centre.

The LDF in the local body elections in February has won 16 out of the 30 seats e November 2018 bypolls too, the LDF had registered a massive victory by winning 21 of the total 39 seats, while UDF had secured 12 seats and BJP had bagged 2 seats. LDF is largely expected to continue this momentum in the General elections as well. A spate of regional issues – the 2018 floods, the state government’s handling of the women’s entry into Sabarimala and the menace of political killings – are expected to dominate the election rhetoric. UDF and BJP are expected to focus on the Hindu sensibilities while the LDF could focus on a social engineering experiment, entailing efforts to divide Hindu votes and win of these by winning over the prominent Ezhava community and the SC/STs.

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Madhya PradeshThe close fight between the Congress and the BJP in the recently concluded assembly elections makes it difficult to see any party as a clear front runner in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. In a neck-and-neck battle, the Congress managed to get 114 seats, just two short of majority, to form the government in Madhya Pradesh after 15 years. The almost negligible difference in the vote share between the two major political parties—Congress 40.9% and BJP 41%, has been without precedence the electoral history of Madhya Pradesh. The gap in vote share was a huge 8.5 percentage points in 2013.

With such a closely fought assembly election between the Congress and the BJP, the latter will find it extremely difficult to repeat its landslide win of 27 seats out of 29, barring a miracle. Madhya Pradesh may prove to be instrumental in deciding the political fortunes at the centre. Several analysts have predicted that Madhya Pradesh would key for the revival of Congress’ electoral fortunes in the General Elections.

If the trends of the MP assembly elections are taken as a base it is predicted that the BJP is set to lose close to 11 seats in the state. What remains to be seen is the effect of Indian Air Strikes in Balakot and if BJP can capitalize on it and regain the momentum that it has lost.

OdishaThe Biju Janata Dal (BJD) under Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik has maintained a strong grip over politics in Odisha for many years. Naveen Patnaik (BJD), the Odisha Congress Party Chief Niranjan Patnaik and prominent BJP leader Dharmendra Pradhan are the main opponents for the upcoming assembly elections in Odisha, scheduled to take place in four phases on April 11, 18, 23 and 29 for 147 assembly seats. In 2014 assembly elections in the state, BJD had emerged as the largest party, winning 117 of 147 seats. Congress was the leading opposition party with 16 seats while BJP won 10 seats.

Although the INC has been the principal opposition to the ruling BJD, it has been out of power and following a declining trend since 2000, even though it won 25.7% vote share in 2014 assembly elections. On the other hand, the BJP had identified Odisha as one of priority states ahead of the polls. The party has gained standing in the state since 2017 by emerging

as the second largest party in the panchayat elections, pushing Congress to the third place. This gave a huge boost to BJP and the electoral strategy they have been deploying in the state. Recent events like former Biju Janata Dal (BJD) MP Baijayant ‘Jay’ Panda joining BJP are interesting events to watch for in the countdown.

The BJD led by CM Patnaik, is in its 18th year of ruling the state owing to the veteran leader’s stand against corruption and pro-poor policies and various social schemes. However, in recent years, the regional party has witnessed falling out with a few key party leaders and issues of corruption, unemployment and agrarian crisis and inaction, thereof.

During the 2014 polls, BJD refrained from having seats sharing arrangement with any party, emerging as the single with a clear majority. Odisha has 21 parliamentary constituencies and the BJD had won 20 of them in 2014.

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Possible scenarios in the 2019 general elections

In the next few weeks, the world’s biggest democracy will undergo elections where more than 850 million voters will decide the fate of thousands of candidates contesting the 543 Lok Sabha seats. The General Elections, termed as the largest democratic exercise in world history is not an easy task to undertake as a total of 464 political parties participated in the 2014 elections. Given the huge money, manpower and other resources at stake, one cannot clearly predict the front-runner considering India’s fragmented, hyper-competitive democracy.

The extent of the General Elections can be judged from the fact that over 1 million polling stations would be set up across the country in order to enable the eligible citizen to cast their votes. More than 10 million people would be deployed across the polling stations to ensure the smooth execution of the electoral process.

Having said that, below are the five possible scenarios that could emerge post the General Elections 2019:

Scenarios Majority Probability Critical Points

Scenario 1 BJP-led NDA secures majority seats

High • The recent attacks in Pulwama and subsequent retaliation by the armed forces is likely to benefit the BJP, as it appears to have shifted the narrative from unemployment and farm distress and boosted Modi’s image as a strong leader.

• Uncertainty over the Grand Alliance of the opposition parties and failure to project a strong leader from amidst the opposition parties is likely to benefit the BJP.

• BJP needs to focus heavily on regional parties in the key states like Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra to retain power.

• The BJP will have to ensure its alliances in the North East stay intact due to the unrest inflamed by the National Register of Citizens and the Permanent Resident certificate in the North East. Its alliance partners like NPP in Meghalaya had also threatened to quit the alliance in case the Citizenship Amendment Bill was passed.

• But strong opposition to the Citizenship Bill backed by the Modi government may well put paid to the gains made by the BJP earlier both in the Lok Sabha polls and the Assembly elections thereafter.

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Scenarios Majority Probability Critical Points

Scenario 2 BJP secures majority seats

Moderate • Though BJP would emerge as the single largest party, it could lose its majority share due to anti-incumbency sentiments and political equation at the regional level.

• BJP strongly needs support of regional parties to secure a majority mark in the lower house elections.

• SP-BSP alliance in Uttar Pradesh and the strong presence of TMC in West Bengal are being seen as major roadblocks to secure absolute majority.

• If the size of majority seats for BJP lies between 160-220 seats, there could be calls for Modi’s replacement for the PM’s post, though BJP could also consider sitting in the opposition instead.

Scenario 3 Congress-led UPA secures majority seats

Low • The recent win in the Assembly elections in the Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh has set the positive expectations in the upcoming elections, but the Congress would need to perform well in Karnataka and Gujarat as well where it faces off squarely against the BJP..

• In the eventuality of the Congress winning more than 150 seats, Rahul Gandhi could lead a non-NDA coalition.

• UPA could win at least half of the seats that the BJP-plus alliance loses.

• The formal entry of Priyanka Gandhi into politics can also reap benefits.

Scenario 4 Congress secures majority seats

Low • After consecutive two terms at the centre, Congress fell to its lowest total in the 2014 elections with only 44 seats from 206 in 2009.

• Congress has done a little to rejuvenate itself post the 2014 election results as it acted slow to rectify its organizational and leadership deficiencies.

• Congress is relying heavily on the success of Grand Alliance to retain power and defeat BJP.

Scenario 5 Grand Alliance of opposition parties secures majority

Low • The Grand Alliance has the potential to defeat the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

• However, success of the Alliance depends on how close-knit it is and how strategically it does seat sharing.

• Non-BJP and non-Congress parties consistently accounted for nearly 50 per cent of India’s votes over the past three decades. Even during the Modi wave of 2014, these parties had a combined vote share of 49%. They hold the key to 2019.

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Summing up…

The 2019 General Elections will be a showdown between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and non-NDA political parties. While the BJP-led NDA would strive to repeat the 2014 show, the Congress-led UPA would try to stage a comeback in national politics after a dull show in 2014. However, what has changed since the 2014 elections is the emergence of the Grand Alliance that can play the role of the disruptor.

It would be wrong to assume that the road is smooth for the BJP. This is evident from the fact that the party managed to win only three of the 13 parliamentary by-polls and five of the 22 state legislature elections in 2018. Some of the government’s unpopular decisions like demonetization and GST as well as its failure to control unemployment and farmers’ distress have taken a toll on its image. The counter measures were seen in the recently announced interim budget where the Government announced sops to woo rural and middle-class voters. On the positive side, PM Modi has largely retained his image intact of being the most powerful, influential and incorruptible leader, although the third aspect has taken a dent in recent times following questions being raised on the Rafael deal as also his reportedly “favouring” some industrialists. Under his leadership, the country’s economy is recovering, FDI has increased and India is being seen as a powerful nation.

On the other side, the opposition is looking more focused and consistent in targeting the Government over its policy and economic decisions. They are also diligently working to form Mahagathbandhan as it is being seen as the most effective way to defeat the BJP and gain a greater foothold in national politics. However, there is no denying the fact that all depends on the approach of the regional parties as they are expected to emerge as holding the key for any party to claim power at the centre, especially at a time when no opinion poll is showing an absolute majority for any major political party. Much depends upon how the two sides play the electoral game. Modi’s image as a game-changer that took a major beating on the economic and social front has certainly been burnished considerably by the decisive action he took after the terrorist attack that killed 40 jawans of the CRPF in Pulwama, with him directing the Indian Air Force to strike the terrorist training camps deep inside Pakistan, the first time it has been done since 1971. Three opinion

polls released this month, show that BJP has clawed back some of the lost electoral ground and is inching closer to the half-way mark.

However, there is also a strong realization among a section of the people that a majority government since 1980 has failed to live up to their expectations and debunked the counter-arguments that coalitions impede growth and economy. Rajiv Gandhi and Modi are the two examples cited by pro-alliance experts while policy paralysis post 2009 is cited by those arguing against coalitions. A check through coalition compulsions ensures that absolute power does not rest with one individual or one party.

The Opposition shares an even chance if it continues to target Modi on bread and butter issues such as unemployment, agrarian distress, farmers’ suicides, social unrest and killings and lynching’s based on caste and community. It would further improve its position by redoubling its efforts at unity. This would help consolidate the anti-BJP vote. It would also ensure a greater “spread” of this vote share through the coming together of different social groups, both in terms of caste and religion. It is for this reason that BJP have started stitching pan-India alliances even succumbing to the whims and fancies of their critics Shiv Sena. As of today, the BJP already has an alliance with 24 parties across the country.This makes the role of regional players more critical. In fact, regional parties and allies will hold the key to next government formation and even decide the country’s next Prime Minister. Infact, a very critical role will be played by nonaligned parties like TRS, BJD Biju Janata Dal, YSR Cong, who seems like getting their act together and gaining momentum.

The 2019 elections are expected to be complicated and no single issue appears to be the dominating theme that could sway the voters from one corner to another. However, the BJP is likely to emerge as the largest single party but fall short of a majority on its own. If this should happen, and it may not, then much would further depend upon how much it falls short by. This magic number will shape the future of the next government!

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