EVIDENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE

PRE-ASSESSMENTPlease answer the questions in this pre-assessment of the Evidence of Climate Change section of the Climate Change Unit. Remember, you are not expected to know most of this material. Using your current knowledge, answer the questions to the best of your ability. This assessment will be given again at the conclusion of this section.

GOOD LUCK!!!PRE-ASSESSMENT QUESTIONSUnit: Evidence of Climate ChangePre-AssessmentAnswer the questions below to the best of your knowledge and understanding. Remember, you are not expected to k now all questions at this point. This assessment will be administered again at the end of this unit to measure your understanding of the subject matter.Name three anomalies in nature that indicate evidence of climate change and briefly explain how each impacts the Earth.Atmospheric moisture has increased 5% in the past 50 years due to increased global temperatures increasing evaporation rates in the oceans. Some scientists believe this increased moisture could cause increased cloud cover above the surface of the earth thus allowing more of the Suns rays to reflect back into space lowering global temperatures. Give a counter argument to this notion using the properties of water vapor as evidence for your counter argument.Explain how melting sea ice can expedite the rate of global warming while not effecting sea level rise.Which areas on Earth account for 99% of all surface ice on Earth and explain what effects the melting of these areas would have on global sea levels. Explain the mechanism that is causing the oceans to become more acidic and describe the possible consequences of an ocean that is more acidic to the atmosphere and to marine ecosystems.Describe the conditions that produce extreme weather events globally and their impact on the human species by these extreme weather events.

Evidence of Climate Change Warm-UpEvidence of climate change is all around us and in the news. Can you identify any evidence of climate change?Choose a partner and brainstorm on the evidence that supports the notion that our planet is going through a climate change and give examples.List your evidence and examples on a piece of paper - try to prioritize by severity with the most severe first.After 5 minutes lets see what weve come up withEVIDENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGEGlobal warming of AtmosphereOcean WarmingShrinking Ice SheetsGlacial RetreatDeclining Arctic Sea-IceSea-level riseExtreme Weather EventsOcean AcidificationLoss of Biodiversity STATE STANDARDSDE State Science Standard 1: Nature and Application of Science and Technology:Scientific inquiry involves asking scientifically-oriented questions, collecting evidence, forming explanations, connecting explanations to scientific knowledge and theory, and communicating and justifying the explanationGLE:Collect accurate and precise data through the selection and use of tools and technologies appropriate to the investigations. Display and organize data through the use of tables, diagrams, graphs, and other organizers that allow analysis and comparison with known information and allow for replication of results.Construct logical scientific explanations and present arguments which defend proposed explanations through the use of closely examined evidenceSTATE STANDARDSDE State Standards:STD 8 Ecology Matter needed to sustain life is continually recycled among and between organisms and the environment.Illustrate how elements on Earth cycle among the biotic and abiotic components of the biosphereOrganisms and their environments are interconnected. Changes in one part of the system will affect other parts of the systemExplain how feedback loops keep ecosystems (at the local and global level) in a state of dynamic equilibrium (e.g., positive and negative feedback loops associated with global climate)

Next Generation Science StandardsHS. Human SustainabilityHS-ESS3-1 Construct an explanation based on evidence for how the availability of natural resources, occurrence of natural hazards, and changes in climate have influenced human activity

HS-ESS3-6 Use a computational representation to illustrate the relationship among Earth systems and how those relationships are being modified due to human activityAmount of carbon dioxide produced and the amount of carbon dioxide sequestered

HS-ESS3-4 Evaluate or refine a technological solution that reduces impacts of human activities on natural systemsAnthropogenic Carbon sequestrationLESSON OBJECTIVETo identify evidence associated with climate change and evaluate the impact of this evidence on global ecological systems presently and potential future impacts. CONCEPT/ESSENTIAL QUESTIONConcept: Measureable climate change evidence is indicating that global changes in earth systems are impacting all life forms on earth presently and illustrates trends of potential future devastation to earths biosphere.Essential Question: If the feedback loop of global warming evidenced on earth today continues to expedite in a positive direction what recourse would humans have when this positive feedback reaches a tipping point?

KEY VOCABULARYGlobal warming Feedback Loop the rising temperature on the Earth changes the environment in ways that then create even more heat. Scientists consider feedback loops the single-biggest threat to civilization from global warming. ABC NewsTipping point - the critical point in an evolving situation that leads to a new and irreversible developmentSubsidence-the motion of a surface (usually, the Earth's surface) as it shifts downward relative to a datum such as sea-level.

TEMPERATURE PUZZLE VIDEO

CLICK PICMAJOR INDICATORS

THE EVIDENCE1. Global Warming

WHAT IS GLOBAL WARMING?Global warming is the increase of Earth's average surface temperature due to greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels or from deforestation, which trap heat that would otherwise escape from Earth.Ice cores drawn from Greenland, Antarctica, and tropical mountain glaciers show that the Earths climate responds to changes in solar output, in the Earths orbit, and in greenhouse gas levels.

Greenhouse gaseskeep heat close to the earths surface making it livable for humans and animals. However, global warming is mainly due to over emitting of large quantities of these gases mostly from fossil fuel burning (natural gas, crude oil, and coal).

SCIENCTIFIC EVIDENCE COLLECTIONThe evidence of climate change is typically obtained from ice cores, analysis of stable isotopes as well as other sediments, temperature profiles of boreholes, sea level records, glacial processes and flora and fauna records.

SOME EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING

TAKING EARTHS TEMPERATURE VIDEOCLICK PIC

GLOBAL WARMING FACTSThe Earth's climate has changed throughout history. Just in the last 650,000 years there have been seven cycles of glacial advance and retreat, with the abrupt end of the last ice age about 7,000 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era and of human civilization. Most of these climate changes are attributed to very small variations in Earths orbit that change the amount of solar energy our planet receives.

650,000 YEAR CO2 DATA

GLOBAL WARMING FACTSHowever, todays global temperature rise does not fit that model but is associated with emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, mainly carbon dioxide.

Temperatures have risen during the last 30 years, and 2000 to 2009 was the warmest decade ever recorded. As the Earth warms up, heat waves are becoming more common in some places, including the United States. Heat waves happen when a region experiences very high temperatures for several days and nights.

GLOBAL WARMING FACTSAccording to the U.S. Global Change Research Program, the atmospheric temperature in the U.S. has increased by 2 degrees in the last 50 years and precipitation by 5 percent.

All three major global surface temperature reconstructions show that Earth has warmed since 1880. Most of this warming has occurred since the 1970s, with the 20 warmest years having occurred since 1981 and with all 10 of the warmest years occurring in the past 12 years. Even though the 2000s witnessed a solar output decline resulting in an unusually deep solar minimum in 2007-2009, surface temperatures continue to increase.

DISPELLING the MISCONCEPTION of SOLAR ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH GLOBAL WARMING

GLOBAL WARMING FACTSIf people keep adding greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at the current rate, the average temperature around the world could increase by about 4 to 12F by the year 2100.

If we make big changes, like using more renewable resources instead of fossil fuels, the increase will be lessabout 2 to 5F.

MODERN TREND of ATMOSPHERIC CO2

The carbon dioxide data (red curve), measured as the mole fraction in dry air The black curve represents the seasonally corrected data. What causes the spikes in the CO2 graph?

CO2 and TEMPERATURE

DEVIATION FROM AVERAGE TEMPS/RAINFALL JUNE 2013

TEMPERATUE CHANGES IN US

In most parts of the United States, the average air temperature has increased since the early 20th century. Source: EPA's Climate Change Indicators (2012).GLOBAL WARMING ACTIVITYDesigning a Global Warming ExperimentEvidence suggests that global warming is a phenomenon that is brought on by an enhanced greenhouse effect due to the build up of greenhouse gasses like CO2, water vapor, and methane in our atmosphere.AS NASA scientists, you have been given the task of designing an experiment(s) to use as evidence that increased amounts of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere creates an enhanced greenhouse effect which brings on global warming.GLOBAL WARMING ACTIVITYExperimental Design1. Work in pairs2. Components of the experimentPurposeBackgroundEquipment neededProcedureSafety precautionsData collectionConclusion

GLOBAL WARMING ACTIVITYGrading Components1. Written experiment with all components listed in previous slide.2. Diagram of experimental set-up with labels3. Predicted outcome (hypothesis)4. Data record temperature readings, gas levels, graphs, etc.)5. Conclusion (compare to hypothesis)6. Time: 45 minutes, possible points: 100DAY 2 WARM-UP ACTIVITYSome scientists believe that Arctic Sea Ice may disappear completely by the year 2060. This will open up the Arctic shipping lanes year round and allow ships that used to have to go down to the Panama Canal to just skirt across the Arctic Circle.Take 10 minutes to list the pros and the cons of this happening. Include environmental as well as economical aspects of the change.When all have finished, we will see how the rest of the class feels.

THE EVIDENCE-2.OCEAN WARMING

The atmosphere affects oceans, and oceans influence the atmosphere. As the temperature of the air rises, oceans absorb some of this heat and also become warmer.CARBON and the OCEANS VIDEO

CLICK PICOCEAN WARMING FACTSOverall, the world's oceans are warmer now than at any point in the last 50 years. The change is most obvious in the top layer of the ocean, which has grown much warmer since the late 1800s. This top layer is now getting warmer at a rate of 0.2F per decade.

Oceans are expected to continue getting warmerboth in the top layer and in deeper waters. Even if people stop adding extra greenhouse gases to the atmosphere now, oceans will continue to get warmer for many years as they slowly absorb extra heat from the atmosphere.

OCEAN WARMING FACTSWarmer oceans affect weather patterns, cause more powerful tropical storms, and can impact many kinds of sea life, such as corals and fish.

Warmer oceanic waters is resulting in increased marine diseases and invasive species, changes in weather systems, modifications in species distribution patterns, dead zones and coral bleaching.

OCEAN WARMING FACTSLarger and more frequent storms are accelerating shoreline erosion, loss of community infrastructure, increased fishing risks and adverse health consequences.Warmer oceans are also one of the main causes of rising sea level. As water warms it expands and creates more volume.The surface ocean currently absorbs about one-fourth of the CO2 emitted to the atmosphere from human activities.

OCEAN TEMPS TODAY

The surface of the world's oceans has become warmer overall since 1880. In this graph, the shaded band shows the likely temperature range, which depends on the number of measurements and the methods used at different times. GLOBAL OCEAN TEMPERATURES

Courtesy NASDA/NASACourtesy NASDA/NASAOCEANS of CLIMATE CHANGE VIDEO

CLICK PICOCEAN WARMING ACTIVITYLooking at the Global Ocean Temperature Map, list three places on Earth that would have the highest rate of carbon dioxide absorption and three places that would have the lowest rates of carbon dioxide absorption. Explain your answers.Which ocean areas would have the least concentrations of salt and why?THE EVIDENCE 3.SHRINKING ICE SHEETS

ICE ON EARTH VIDEO

CLICK PICTHE MAKING OF ICE ON EARTH

GLOBAL ICE SHEETSAn ice sheet is a mass of glacial land ice extending more than 50,000 square kilometers (20,000 square miles). The two ice sheets on Earth today cover most of Greenland and Antarctica. During the last ice age, ice sheets also covered much of North America and Scandinavia.If the Greenland Ice Sheet melted, scientists estimate that sea level would rise about 6 meters (20 feet). If the Antarctic Ice Sheet melted, sea level would rise by about 60 meters (200 feet). CONTRIBUTORS TO SEA LEVEL RISE

Sea level rise contributors: Comparison of volume (white), area (grey) and percent contribution to sea level rise (red) by small glaciers and ice caps, and the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Image courtesy (Meier et al., 2007).ANTARCTICA and GREENLAND ICE SHEETSTogether, the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets contain more than 99 percent of the freshwater ice on Earth. The Antarctic Ice Sheet extends almost 14 million square kilometers (5.4 million square miles), roughly the area of the contiguous United States and Mexico combined. The Antarctic Ice Sheet contains 30 million cubic kilometers (7.2 million cubic miles) of ice. The Greenland Ice Sheet extends about 1.7 million square kilometers (656,000 square miles), covering most of the island of Greenland, three times the size of Texas. SHRINKING ICE SHEETSThe polar ice caps have melted faster in last 20 years than in the last 10,000. A comprehensive satellite study confirms that the melting ice caps are raising sea levels at an accelerating rate.

Ice sheets are retreating. In the years 2002-2006, Greenland lost approximately 150-250 cubic km. of ice every year with Antarctica losing 152 cubic km. between 2002-2005.

EFFECTS OF POLAR ICE MELTThe polar regions are important drivers of the world's climate. When the "everlasting ice" melts at an increasing rate, the rest of the world is affected. Global sea levels are rising, dark melt-water pools absorb warmth from the sun which white ice would reflect back into space. Fresh water flows into the sea, changing ocean currents and the living conditions for marine organisms.

ICE MELT AND SEA LEVEL RISEAccording to the study, melting ice from both poles has been responsible for a fifth of the global rise in sea levels since 1992, 11 millimeters in all. The rest was caused by the thermal expansion of the warming ocean, the melting of mountain glaciers, small Arctic ice caps and groundwater mining. The share of the polar ice melt, however, is rising.The pattern of change differs considerably between the Arctic and the Antarctic. Two thirds of the ice loss is happening in Greenland. The rate of ice loss from Greenland has increased almost five-fold since the mid-1990s according to NASA.GREENLAND ICE MELT EVIDENCE

Extent of surface melt over Greenlands ice sheet on July 8 (left) and July 12 (right). Measurements from three satellites showed that on July 8, about 40 percent of the ice sheet had undergone thawing at or near the surface. In just a few days, the melting had dramatically accelerated and an estimated 97 percent of the ice sheet surface had thawed by July 12. In the image, the areas classified as probable melt (light pink) correspond to those sites where at least one satellite detected surface melting. The areas classified as melt (dark pink) correspond to sites where two or three satellites detected surface melting. The satellites are measuring different physical properties at different scales and are passing over Greenland at different times. As a whole, they provide a picture of an extreme melt event about which scientists are very confident. Credit: Nicolo E. DiGirolamo, SSAI/NASA GSFC, and Jesse Allen, NASA Earth Observatory

THE GREENLAND EFFECTAlthough the Greenland ice sheet is only about one tenth the size of Antarctica, today it is contributing twice as much ice to sea levels.This is probably because it is at a more equatorial latitude, further from the North pole than Antarctica from the South pole. The ice on Greenland is also melting on the surface, because of increasing air temperatures.

THE GREENLAND EFFECTThese warm waters are also beginning to melt the underside of the floating fringes of the Greenland ice sheet, even at great depths.

It is these fringes that have been holding back large amounts of ice locked up in the Greenland ice sheet, and as this ice has been melting, the glaciers have quickened their flow to the sea.

GREENLAND ICE

On average in the summer, about half of the surface of Greenland's ice sheet naturally melts. At high elevations, most of that melt water quickly refreezes in place. Near the coast, some of the melt water is retained by the ice sheet and the rest is lost to the ocean. But this year, 2013, the extent of ice melting at or near the surface jumped dramatically.THE BIG THAW IN GREENLAND According to satellite data, an estimated 97 percent of the ice sheet surface thawed at some point in mid-July of this year, 2013.

The melting spread quickly. Melt maps derived from the three satellites showed that on July 8, about 40 percent of the ice sheet's surface had melted.

By July 12, 97 percent had melted.

WESTERN ANTARCTIC ICE SHEETSIn the Antarctic, the situation is a more complex one. Scientists distinguish between the West and East, which are being affected differently by climate changeWest Antarctica is losing ice at an accelerating rate. Many of the region's glaciers are by the sea, which is warming. It is only to be expected that the ice is melting faster here.EASTERN ANTARCTICA ICE SHEETSIn the huge area of East Antarctica, the ice is mostly above sea level. The air temperature is also much lower, and the experts do not expect the ice to melt on account of rising temperatures. In this part of Antarctica, the ice sheet is actually growing as a consequence of increased snowfall. This has led some critics to question the global warming theory. However, for NASA scientists, the changes are all consistent with patterns of climate warming, which leads to more evaporation from the oceans and in turn more precipitation, which falls as snow on the ice sheets.

EXIT TICKET DAY 2With atmospheric temperatures rising slightly in the past decade explain why Greenland and Western Antarctica rates of melting have risen so steeply in recent years?DAY 3 WARM-UP ACTIVITYWith a partner, suggest ideas for Delawareans to combat future sea-level rise in New Castle County and in Sussex County.

10 Minutes

When completed, lets see what the entire class has come up with.NASA TRACKING ICE ON EARTH

CLICK PICTHE EVIDENCE 4. GLACIAL RETREAT

Jakobshavn Isbr, which lies on the west coast of GreenlandEFFECTS OF GLACIAL RETREATThe retreat of glaciers since 1850 affects the availability of fresh water for irrigation and domestic use, mountain recreation, animals and plants that depend on glacier-melt, and in the longer term, the level of the oceansSince the 1980s, glacial retreat across the world has sped up dramatically. Between the 1960s and 1990s, ice loss was already relatively fast - with an around of 8 inches of ice thickness lost for every square yard of glacier across the world. Between 2001-2004, this rate more than doubled

US GLACIER SBy 2030 or even sooner -- perhaps even by the end of this decade -- most or all of the Glacial National Parks (Montana)remaining 25 or so glaciers will be gone forever, according to Dan Fagre, a U.S. Geological Survey ecologist and glacial expert.

About 5% of Alaska is covered by ice, in over 100,000 individual glaciers, many of which are unnamed.

98% of these glaciers are shrinking, with those at lower elevations experiencing the most rapid melting.

ALASKAN GLACIER SAlaskan glaciers show some of the fastest loss in the world per unit area.

From the mid 1950s to the mid 1990s, 12.5 cubic miles of ice was lost each year. This rate nearly doubled from the mid-1990s to 2001, to 23 cubic miles per year.

This is nearly double the total loss from the much larger Greenland ice sheet during that time. ALASKAN GLACIER S

This pair of photos shows the same location on the east shore of Muir Inlet in Alaska's Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve. In the 1880s-era photo, the 328-feet-high glacier is shown with numerous icebergsALASKAN GLACIERS

By 2005, Muir Glacier had retreated by more than 30 miles. (USGS Photo by Bruce MolniaALASKAN GLACIERS

THE EVIDENCE -5. DECLINING POLAR SEA ICE

Sea ice climatologies: Arctic and Antarctic sea ice concentration climatology from 1981-2010, at the approximate seasonal maximum and minimum levels based on passive microwave satellite data. Image provided by National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, BoulderARCTIC SEA ICE FACTSpresently approximated that the Arctic Sea is losing its ice at the rate of 11.5% per decade when compared to the 1979-2000 average ice cover.Greenhouse gases emitted through human activities and the resulting increase in global mean temperatures are the most likely underlying cause of the sea ice decline, but the direct cause is a complicated combination of factors resulting from the warming, and from climate variability.

ARCTIC SEA ICE RECORD MELTYear of September Average ExtentExtent (million sq. km.)Anomaly Relative to 1981-2010 Average (million sq. km.)Anomaly Relative to 1981-2010 Average (%)20025.96-0.56-8.620036.15-0.37-5.720046.05-0.47-7.220055.57-0.95-14.620065.92-0.6-9.220074.3-2.22-3420084.73-1.79-27.520095.39-1.13-17.320104.93-1.59-24.420114.63-1.89-2920123.63-2.89-44.3The Arctic sea ice September minimum extent reached a new record low in 2012 of 3.41 million square kilometers, 44 percent below the 1981-2010 average, and 16 percent below the previous record in 2007.SEA ICE FACTSThe melting and growth of sea ice, in contrast to land ice, does not affect sea level, because the sea ice is floating on the ocean already and is in equilibrium with it. Sea ice is nonetheless still important in the context of climate change. Sea ice, with its high reflectance and the insulation it provides between the polar atmospheres and oceans, is a key part of the climate system.

SEA ICE FACTSFurthermore, sea ice responds to changes in the atmosphere and oceans, and hence changes in it could be a clue to broader climate change, such as global warming. However, the record to date is not clear enough to make any definitive conclusions about long-term climate trends based on the sea-ice observations alone. Sea ice varies significantly from season to season and from year to year, and the extent of its natural variability is not yet fully known.SEA ICE vs. LAND ICEWhat is the biggest difference between sea ice and land ice in reference to sea level rise?What property of ocean water contributes to increased volume?If a glass of water with ice cubes in it were filled to the top edge of the container would the water overflow when the ice melts?DEMO ON SEA ICE vs. LAND ICE MELTING

CLICK PICGLACIERS AND SEA LEVEL RISE

Small glacier/ice cap contribution: The cumulative contribution to sea level from small glaciers and ice caps (red) plotted with the annual global surface air temperature anomaly (blue). Image courtesy Mark Dyurgerov, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder.THE EVIDENCE 6. SEA-LEVEL RISE

GLACIERS and SEA LEVEL RISEDuring the period 1960-1990, glaciers contributed 0.37 millimeters per year to sea level while during 1990-2004, the contribution increased to 0.77 millimeters per year.However, the latest predictions suggest possibly an even greater contribution by small glaciers and icecaps. With the current acceleration of glacier contribution to sea level rise, the total contribution from small glaciers and ice caps by the year 2100 is expected to be 240 millimeters, which represents an average annual increase of more than 2.0 millimeters per year.CAUSES OF SEA LEVEL RISEIn the last century, sea levels rose roughly 7 inches after not having changed noticeably in the previous 2,000 years. Sea levels rising are an effect of global warming and put many states at risk of existing in the near future.As water gets warmer, it takes up more space. Each drop of water only expands by a little bit, but when you multiply this expansion over the entire depth of the ocean, it all adds up and causes sea level to rise. Sea level is also rising because melting glaciers and ice sheets are adding more water to the oceans.

SEA LEVEL RISE VIDEO

CLICK PICCAUSES OF SEA LEVEL RISE

EFFECTS of SEA LEVEL RISEIf people keep adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, the average sea level around the world by the end of this century (the year 2099) could be anywhere from 7 to 23 inches higher than it was in 1990. Sea level could rise even more if the big ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica melt faster.Rising sea level is a threat to people who live near the ocean. Some low-lying areas will have more frequent flooding, and very low-lying land could be submerged completely. Rising sea level can also harm important coastal ecosystems like mangrove forests and coral reefs. FUTURE SEA LEVELS

CITIES AT GREATEST RISK OF SEA LEVEL RISE

SEA LEVEL RISE BY DECADE

NE US WITH A 20 FOOT SEA LEVEL RISE

A NEW WORLD WITH A 100 m(328 ft) SEA LEVEL RISE

SEA LEVEL RISE IN DELAWARE ACTIVITYMapping Delawares Future CoastlineSome scientific models predict that if Greenlands ice melted completely or slipped into the ocean, sea level would rise approximately 20 feet. They also predict that if the West Antarctic ice shelf melted or slipped into the ocean, sea level would rise another 20 feet, a total of 40 feet.Using the map of Delaware and the city/town elevation data complete the following exercises. When complete, answer the questions below.Write the elevation of each town/city listed on the map. (print small)Assuming that the Greenland ice sheet does melt, draw the newly formed coastline of Delaware and color it with a yellow pencil.Now assume that the West Antarctic ice shelf melts in addition to Greenland melting. Draw the new coastline of Delaware in this scenario.Questions: What cities and towns would be underwater in scenario number 2?What cities and towns would be underwater in scenario number 3?What impact do you think either or both of these scenarios would have on Delawares eco systems? Explain.What impact would either or both of these scenarios have on the economy of Delaware?What impact would they have on Delaware resources? (water supply, etc.)

DELAWARE ELEVATIONSCity/TownElevation (ft. above sea-level)Claymont100Edgemoor60Middletown66St.Georges30Wilmington100McKean H.S.280Greeneville (A.I. High)258Laurel29Seaford29Lewes18Milford21Millsboro26Rehobeth Beach16Newark125Newport35New Castle19Hockessin254Delaware City10Delcastle H.S.75Dover36Smyrna36Woodside61Silver Lake (Dover)16Leipsic15Angola20Bethany Beach10Dewey Beach7Fenwick Island4Georgetown52Port Penn11DAY 4 WARM-UP ACTIVITYList 5 factors that scientist believe will contribute to more severe hurricanes, droughts, and floods.

5 MinutesTHE EVIDENCE- 7. EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS

EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMINGAnalysis of computer simulations from 14 climate models indicates wet regions of the world, such as the equatorial Pacific Ocean and Asian monsoon regions, will see increases in heavy precipitation because of warming resulting from projected increases in carbon dioxide levels. Arid land areas outside the tropics and many regions with moderate rainfall could become drier."In response to carbon dioxide-induced warming, the global water cycle undergoes a gigantic competition for moisture resulting in a global pattern of increased heavy rain, decreased moderate rain, and prolonged droughts in certain regions. (William Lau of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.)

RAINFALL PROJECTIONSThe models project for every 1 degree Fahrenheit of carbon dioxide-induced warming, heavy rainfall will increase globally by 3.9 percent and light rain will increase globally by 1 percent.Heavy rainfall is defined as months that receive an average of more than about 0.35 of an inch per day.The models also projected for every degree Fahrenheit of warming, the length of periods with no rain will increase globally by 2.6 percent.EXTREME WEATHER FACTSAs the climate has warmed, some types of extreme weather have become more frequent and severe in recent decades, with increases in extreme heat, intense precipitation, and drought.Heat waves are longer and hotter. Heavy rains and flooding are more frequent. In a wide swing between extremes, drought, too, is more intense and more widespread

EXTREME WEATHER FACTS60 years ago in the continental United States, the number of new record high temperatures recorded around the country each year was roughly equal to the number of new record lows. Now, the number of new record highs recorded each year is twice the number of new record lows, a signature of a warming climate, and a clear example of its impact on extreme weather.1

EXTREME WEATHER DATAOver the past decade, 75 counties set all-time record highs but only 15 countries set all-time record lows. In 2010, 19 countries set new all-time record high temperatures, but not a single country set a new all-time record low (among those countries keeping these statistics). 3A European heat wave in 2003 killed tens of thousands.

RECORD HIGHS-LOWS IN US

EXTREME WEATHER CAUSESSubstantial changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events can result from a relatively small shift in the average of a distribution of temperatures, precipitation, or other climate variables.

PROBABILITY OF EXTREME EVENTS

EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS IN US

CLICK PICTHE COST OF EXTREME WEATHERFrom 1980 to 2010 there were 99 weather disasters in the U.S. in which damages exceeded $1 billion.Altogether those disasters cost $725 billionMore frequent and more severe extreme weather events are more likely to destabilize ecosystems and cripple essential components of human livelihood, such as food production, transportation infrastructure, and water management.Death, disease, displacement, and economic hardship may follow, as we have seen with recent hurricanes, floods, heat waves, and droughts.

THE COST OF EXTREME WEATHERIn the past two years,2011-2012, the U.S. has suffered an onslaught of extreme weather, including storms, floods, drought, heat, and fires. The 25 most damaging events took a combined 1,100 lives and caused $188 billion in damages.

2013 EXTREME WEATHERIn early 2013, parts of the Southern Hemisphere witnessed record-high temperatures, with Australia experiencing its hottest month in January 2013 since record-keeping began more than a century ago. Meanwhile, the central and northeastern United States saw record snowfall and blizzard conditions. Precipitation continued to be extreme throughout the spring, with Spain seeing its wettest March on record China experienced its wettest May since 1973. New Zealand saw its worst drought in three decades California experienced its driest year-to-date.2012 EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS

CAN YOU NAME ANY OTHER EXTREME EVENTS?Hurricane KatrinaHurricane SandyHeat Wave in TexasOthers?EVIDENCE 8. OCEAN ACIDIFICATION

OCEAN CO2 and ACIDITY (pH)

OCEAN ACIDIFICATION FACTSScientists now know that about half of this anthropogenic, or man-made, CO2 has been absorbed over time by the oceansNew research is finding that the introduction of massive amounts of CO2 into the seas is altering water chemistry and affecting the life cycles of many marine organisms, particularly those at the lower end of the food chain. When carbon dioxide dissolves in this ocean, carbonic acid is formed. This leads to higher acidity, mainly near the surface, which has been proven to inhibit shell growth in marine animals and is suspected as a cause of reproductive disorders in some fish.

THE CHANGING OCEAN pHOn the pH scale, which runs from 0 to 14, solutions with low numbers are considered acidic and those with higher numbers are basic. Seven is neutral. Over the past 300 million years, ocean pH has been slightly basic, averaging about 8.2. Today, it is around 8.1, a drop of 0.1 pH units, representing a 25-percent increase in acidity over the past two centuries.

FUTURE EFFECTS OF OCEAN ACIDIFICATIONProjections show that by the end of this century, continued emissions could reduce ocean pH by another 0.5 units. Shell-forming animals including corals, oysters, shrimp, lobster, many planktonic organisms, and even some fish species could be gravely affectedOCEAN ACIDIFICATION VIDEO

CLICK PICWHAT DO YOU THINK?What do you think would happen if shelled sea creatures, including corals, no longer had the ability to make their shells due to ocean acidification?CLOSURETopics Covered:Evidence on:Global WarmingOcean WarmingShrinking Ice SheetsGlacial RetreatDeclining Sea IceSea Level RiseExtreme Weather EventsOcean Acidification

CONCEPT MAP ON CLIMATE CHANGE EVIDENCEWork with a partner and design and construct a concept map using all the identified areas of evidence in this lesson and include any associated nomenclature with each topic. When finished, exchange your concept map with another group for peer feedback and constructive criticism.When completed, submit your finished product for grading

50 points maximumPOST ASSESSMENTPre assessment exam will be administered to assure student understanding. Any areas of misconception or non comprehension will be re-taught.EXIT TICKETDescribe in three paragraphs or more how the evidence for climate change is interrelated in a feedback loop that is inter dependent of each variable included in each area of evidence. In other words, describe the cause and effect between each topic of evidence.