PRBO Conservation Science Adapting to Sea Level Rise along the North Bay Shoreline June 28, 2012 |...

PRBO Conservation Science

Adapting to Sea Level Rise along the North Bay Shoreline

June 28, 2012 | 8:30 am – 12:30 pm


Applied Bird and Ecosystem Science to Advance Conservation for Wildlife and People

• Founded in 1965• 140+ staff and

seasonal

biologists

Using birds and other species as indicators of change


PRIORITY: Reduce Impacts of Environmental Change on Ecosystems & Enhance Capacity to Adapt

Tuna

Matt Jalbert

CLIMATE CHANGE


Workshop Purpose

Solicit management information needs for analyses that could be completed by PRBO

Conservation Science using our online decision support tool to plan for and respond to sea level

rise along the North Bay shoreline.


Workshop Objectives

To gain an understanding of…

• Management questions related to sea level rise that could

be addressed through the use of our decision support tool.

• Adaptation, restoration, and/or management planning

actions related to sea level rise and storm hazards

underway or being considered, and their geographic extent.

• Stakeholders’ processes for planning for sea level rise and

storm hazards and how to best integrate decision support

tools.


Project overview

• Assess stakeholder information needs

• Assess vulnerabilities to sea level rise

• Assess conservation priorities and opportunities to use natural habitat to buffer human infrastructure from impacts of sea-level rise and increased storm intensity

• Adapt web-based decision support tool (www.prbo.org/sfbayslr) to effectively deliver these results.


Project Extent


Project Timeline

Task Jun-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Jan-13

Stakeholder workshops, identify data gaps x

Acquire and synthesize missing data x x

Preliminary results, user feedback x x

Website beta version, user feedback x

Final website, workshop, final recommendations x

Present findings to NBWA Board x

PRBO SLR Tool

www.prbo.org/sfbayslr


• Historic marshes were diked off • Agriculture, salt production, development

• Levees now breached to restore tidal marsh

Background- Changing Landscape

Sonoma Baylands

Diked Baylands Restored marsh


05

01

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1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008Year

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Common Yellowthroat Population Change, Estuary-wide

-20

02

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1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008Year

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Black Rail Population Change, Estuary-wide

Tidal Marsh Bird Project

© Peter LaTourrette

Nur and Wood, unpublished

© VIREO

• Began in 1996• Status and trends of tidal marsh birds• Identify important habitat features

PRBO Conservation Science-2

00

20

40

60

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1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008Year

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Black Rail Population Change, Estuary-wide

Tidal Marsh Bird Project

© Peter LaTourrette2050

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50

10

01

50

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008Year

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Common Yellowthroat Population Change, Estuary-wide

2050

?© VIREO

Nur and Wood, unpublished

• Began in 1996• Status and trends of tidal marsh birds• Identify important habitat features• How will changing climate affect bird populations?


Challenges in projecting the future of marshes

• No Baywide marsh response to sea-level rise

• “Bathtub” SLR models not appropriate for dynamic tidal marsh systems

• Lots of uncertainty


Vermeer and Rahmstorf, PNAS 2009

1.9 m

A few words about uncertainty

0.18 to 0.59 m Intergovernmental Panel

on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007)

does not include ice sheet contributions

0.5 to 1.9 m Rahmstorf (Science, 2007)/

Vermeer and Rahmstorf (PNAS, 2009)

relates sea level rise to mean surface temperature

0.8 to 2 m Pfeffer et al. (Science, 2008)

constrained by observations of ice sheet dynamics

5 m Hansen (Environ. Res. Lett., 2007)

non-linearity, amplifying polar feedbacks- ‘albedo flip’

sea level was 75 m higher at ~50 Ma

at 5 Ma, sea level was ~25 m higher , but only 2-3oC

warmer (A2 emissions scenario is 4.5 oC warmer)Patrick Barnard, USGS

5 m


Tool development

• Elevation

• Elevation


Tool development

• Elevation• Subregional scenarios

• Suspended sediment• Organic accumulation


Tool development

• Elevation• Subregional scenarios

• Suspended sediment• Organic accumulation

• Sea-level rise

From National Research Council, adopted by ACOE


Peer Reviewed Publication

Evaluating tidal marsh sustainability in the face of sea-level rise: a hybrid modeling approach applied to San Francisco Bay

Stralberg, D., M. Brennan,

J.C. Callaway, J.K. Wood,

L.M. Schile, D. Jongsomjit,

M. Kelly, V.T. Parker, and

S. Crooks.

• PLoS ONE 2011 (

http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0027388)

http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0027388

WWW.PRBO.ORG/SFBAYSLR

http://www.prbo.org/sfbayslr


Results – summary of key findings

• Models are sensitive to sediment and sea level rise scenarios but not organic accumulation

• We project increases in tidal marsh habitat in all scenarios except for low sediment/ high sea level rise (93% of mid and high marsh lost)

• Up to 7,500 ha (current) and ~32,500 ha (future sed high/slr low) of diked baylands have restoration potential.

• Up to 3,300 ha of uplands could become marsh by 2100.

• Sediment-rich areas have better prospects for long-term sustainability.

Sed High/ SLR Low

Sed High/ SLR High

Sed Low/ SLR Low

Sed Low/ SLR High

-100

-50

0

50

100

150Mid Marsh

Scenario

% C

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n a

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m

20

10


Changes in Plant and Bird Distributions

Common Yellowthroat Clapper Rail

Song Sparrow

Black Rail

Marsh Wren


Changes in Plant and Bird Distributions

Common Yellowthroat

Song Sparrow

Black Rail

Marsh Wren

+15 Tidal Marsh Plant Species

Clapper Railwww.prbo.org/sfbayslr


© VIREO

How will tidal marsh birds respond to future scenarios?

We used our bird observations with marsh accretion results to model tidal marsh bird response to sea level rise, including changes in salinity


Tidal marsh birds are also sensitive to scenarios

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© VIREO


Example question 1: Restoration Prioritization

• Example question: Will planned restoration projects be resilient/ successful with sea level rise?

• Example decision: Some projects are resilient to sea level rise, others will require adaptive management.


Example question 2: Upland marsh migration

• Example question: Where should we promote marsh migration into currently upland habitat?

• Example decision: We can look at where upslope migration of marshes does not conflict with alternative land uses


Example question 3: Ecosystem services

• Example question: Where does tidal marsh habitat provide flood protection? Where will assets become vulnerable due to loss of habitat?

• Example decision: Loss of ecosystem services could increase vulnerability to flooding. Actively managing for tidal marsh habitat could increase asset protection.

PRBO Conservation Science Adapting to Sea Level Rise along the North Bay Shoreline June 28, 2012 |...

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