“Challenges for Agricultural Research”

Prague, April 2009

Gary P. Fitt

OECD CRP Management Committee

Structure of the Workshop

Introductory Session

Session 1: Coping with Pressures on Natural Resources - Water

and Soil (4 speakers)

Session 2: Delivering Sustainable Agriculture for Food and the

Environment (4)

Session 3: Competition in Agriculture for Food, Fibre and Fuel (4)

Session 4: Food Safety Today and Tomorrow: The challenges in

changing food and farming practices (5)

Session 5: Regulatory Challenges (4)

Round Table: From Challenges for Agricultural Research to New

Opportunities for Agricultural Policy Making

Global drivers

• Food Security

• Need to double food and fibre production by 2050

• Needs to be achieved largely …..

• With existing land and water resources

• With increasingly constrained nutrient and energy resources

• With uncertainties enhanced through climate change

• Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

• Need significant reductions in greenhouse emissions from current levels

• Implies “carbon neutral” food and fibre production as an emerging goal.

• Implies land use increasingly contested for food, fibre, fuel and carbon storage

• Environmental Change

• Need to maintain the natural asset base for future generations

• In terms of soils and landscape management

• In terms of agri-ecosystem function and biodiversity conservation

“By 2050, global population is projected to increase by

50% while global food demand will more than double due

to rising global per capita real income. This demand will

be a major driver of global environmental change”.

–D. Tilman

Food Security

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●

●●

Adapted from Molden (2007), based on World Bank and FAO data

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●

●●

Adapted from Molden (2007), based on World Bank and FAO data

Source: UNEPSource: UNEP

Population growthDeclining yield

potentials

Increasing water

demands

Changing diet

Diversion to BiofuelsIncreasing food

prices

Declining global

food stocks

Growing food

demand

Increasing reliance

on irrigation

Evidence of a productivity plateau….

Although the area

required to feed a

person has declined

due to technology and

productivity gains, the

rate of gain is slowing

Climate change and Greenhouse Mitigation

Climate Change Effects on Maize Yield - Global

rainfed maize yields decline by 17%

Hadley GCM, SRES Scenario A2a, Maize Variety IB0041

Source: G. Nelson, J. Koo, R. Robertson, “Simulating the Yield Consequences of Climate Change: Combining

Crop Models with Location-specific Climate and Physical Constraints” , EPTD, IFPRI, in draft

Page 9Source: G. Nelson, J. Koo, R. Robertson, “Simulating the Yield Consequences of Climate Change: Combining

Crop Models with Location-specific Climate and Physical Constraints” , EPTD, IFPRI, in draft

Hadley GCM, SRES Scenario A2a

Climate Change Effects on Irrigated Rice

Yields – Global Irrigated rice yields decline by 20%

Availability

Access

Stability Utilization

The food security puzzle (source FAO)

Productivity,

Landscape

sustainability

Food chain

Efficiencies,

Equity,

Losses and

waste

Growing competition for photosynthates

Balancing competing uses for

photosynthate while ensuring

environmental sustainability

is the key challenge

Key Challenges

• Providing sufficient and safe food for a growing and richer global population

• Allocating scarce land and water resources for agriculture, non-agricultural uses, and natural ecosystems – what are the criteria?

• Adjusting to climate change - what is the role of domestic and international actions in dealing with a global public good issue?

Key Issues from Session 1:

Coping with Pressures on Natural

Resources - Water and Soil

“Anyone who can solve the problems of

water will be worthy of two Nobel Prizes –

one for peace and one for science”

John F Kennedy

Global water – balancing supply and demand

Drivers of water use and growing scarcity

• Food demand and changing diets: 70-90% more in 2050

• Urbanization: domestic & industrial water use more than doubles

• Growing demand for non-food crops

• Climate change: more climate variability

• Energy prices: hydro, biofuels, pumping, desalinization, agri-inputs

• Poor and unsustainable management

Water Scarcity 2000

1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity

Page 17

Projected changes in total agricultural water use

1,4251,603

1,785

1,703

2,4572,611

3,272

4,539

4,663

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

2000 2025 2050

km

3 Rainfed Green

Irrigated Green

Irrigated Blue

Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model Projections

IWMI shows worse

case without

productivity gains

is 13000 km3 ie crop

Water consumption

doubles by 2050

Food chain losses

Pre-processing

Transport

Storage

Producer

Processing

& Packaging

Marketing

Plate waste

Field losses Pests and diseases

Broken grains,

excessive dehulling

Spillage, leakage

Insects, rodents, bacteria

Excessive peeling,

trimming,

inefficiency

In retailing

By consumers

& retailers

Consumer

20-40%

10-15% in

quantity

25-50% in value

(quality)

5-30% developed

2-20% developing

Food losses and wastage

by consumers is like keep

the tap running…

Responses for research and policy

1. Increase productivity• Physical Water Productivity – more crop per drop

• Economic Water Productivity – more value per drop

2. Adapt irrigation to tomorrow‟s needs - increase flexibility of water and food systems and adaptability to stress

3. Trade water intensive products from water abundant to water scarce areas

4. Reduce losses in the food chain

5. Need to reform water management, policies, and investments to improve water use efficiency

6. Look for solutions outside the water sector

7. Focus on needs for complementary investments in agricultural technologies (seeds, fertilizer), rural infrastructure (roads, telecommunications) and in associated sectors (education, health)

Soil Resources Provide Critical Ecosystem Services

Provisioning services:• Food

• Livestock feed

• Textiles

• Wood

• Biomass for fuel

Regulating Services:• Climate regulation

• Hydrological cycles

• Nutrient cycles

• Biodiversity conservation

• Waste removal

Supporting Services:• Soil formation

• Support to plants

• Primary production

Millennium Ecosystems Assessment, 2005

Soil resources are under pressure …

• Humans have converted about 40% of the land area - almost

4.2 billion hectares - to agriculture and urban or built-up areas.

Most of the remaining land is unsuitable for agriculture.

• 24% of land area has been degraded

• Soil degradation reduced agricultural productivity by ~15%

between 1950 and 2000.

• Top soil has been lost at the rate of 300 million tons/yr for 300

yrs but between 1950 and 2000, topsoil loss was 760 million

tons/yr.

• Most degradation in Asia and Africa

Soil productivity losses…

Soil

Productivity

Losses

Policy

Economics

Social –

The Human

Dimension

Biophysical

Processes

NOT JUST Biophysical

Agricultural systems are different…….

Soil Nutrient Depletion

132 m tons of N

15 m tons of P

90 m tons of K

(worth $4 billion/yr)

lost from cultivated

land in 37 African

countries during

the last 30 yearsSmaling, 1993

Sanchez, 2002

Known by scientists since De Wit (1970)

The link of fertiliser use to climate change …

1. Carbon cost to produce and apply N fertilizer• Haber-Bösch process: CH4 + H2O → CO + 3H2

3H2 + N2 ⇌ 2NH3N2 + 3H2 ⇌ 2NH3

• 0.5 ton of C is required to produce 1 ton of N

• + another 0.5 ton for transport and application

• 1 ton of C emitted to produce, transport and apply 1 ton of N

2. Carbon cost to produce N via biological N fixation• N2 + 8H+ + 8e- + 16 C10H16P3O13N5 → 2NH3 + H2 + 16ADP + 16 P

• 12–16 tons C needed for rhizobia to produce 1 ton of reactive N

• Biological N fixation has zero transport costs

• But biological N fixation is carbon neutral(plants take up C via photosynthesis, but respire it back)

The main challenge

Not taking soils for granted….

If soils are not restored, crops will fail even if rains do not; hunger will perpetuate

even with emphasis on biotechnology and genetically modified crops; civil strife and

political instability will plague the developing world even with sermons on human

rights and democratic ideals; and humanity will suffer even with great scientific

strides. Political stability and global peace are threatened because of soil

degradation, food insecurity, and desperateness. The time to act is now.

Lal (Science, 2008)

The key challenges• Stop and reverse soil degradation

• Address issues of nutrient mining

• Quantify and manage the role of soils in climate change scenarios

• Design and implement systems to enhance productivity and sustainability

• Policy settings which support these changes

• Extension, training, education to support farmers in improved soil

management

Key Issues from Session 2:

Delivering Sustainable Agriculture for

Food and the Environment

The process of intensification

Foley et al (2005) Science 309 570

• Habitat transformation

• Landscape modification

• Biodiversity impacts from

management

The fundamental conflict –

man harvesting too much productivity

Human – appropriated photosynthesis

(HANPP) is now around 24 %

13 % harvest

10 % land use change

2 % fire

What is needed is a new narrative for

agriculture and biodiversity….

• Integration of land use with agri-food-energy

system

• Productive, resilient and adaptable

• Values natural resources and biodiversity

• Uses all management strategies appropriately

Pest Biology& Ecology

Culturalcontrol

Quarantine,Eradication

Sampling,Monitoring & Forecasting

Economic thresholds

Pesticides,

Resistance

Management

Biological control

Integrated Pest Management – a sustainable

approach to crop protection

Host plantresistance

GM crop technologies

(still increasing globally

at 10% pa)

as one component of

future IPM systems

Key Issues from Session 3:

Competition in Agriculture for

Food, Fibre and Fuel

The Challenge to food production

from biofuels…

U.S.Production: 34 bln l

Feedstock: maize

BrazilProduction: 22 bln l

Feedstock: sugarcane

ChinaProduction: 1,9 bln l

Feedstock:maize, cassava

EU-27Production: 3,7 bln l

Feedstock:cereals (85%)

sugarbeet (15%)

Total production: 65 bln l (est.)

World fuel ethanol production (2008)

6% of the global feed grains, 10% of the

global sugar went to ethanol processing

CanadaProduction: 1 bln l

Feedstock: cereals

Source: F.O. Licht’s World Ethanol & Biofuels Report [2009]

EU-27Production: 7 mln t

Feedstock: rapeseed oil (80%)

USAProduction: 2,4 mln t

Feedstock: soyoil

Total production: 13 mln t (est.)

Brazil1 mln t

Argentina0,8 mln t

World biodiesel production (2008)

10% of the global vegetable oil

production went to biodiesel processing Source: F.O. Licht’s World Ethanol & Biofuels Report [2009]

Globalisation of food system will put more pressure on

markets and local ecosystems to supply food needs

Continued reliance on a small number of key crop and animal varieties in key producing regions to meet our needs

Need more reliance on productivity growth, but land use will inevitably expand with trade-offs to ecosystem quality

BUT widespread implications for biodiversity and the environment from an unmanaged focus on productivity

Can‟t afford a „Fortress World‟ outcome - need to allow for technology sharing and rationalise trade relations

• Past production increases related to advances in both genetics

and management

• Genetic gains due to gains in yield potential, management gains

were mainly due to resource use (e.g. fertilizers, water)

• Future gains must come from breeding which also takes account

of environmental safety and production sustainability

• Huge challenge for wheat (and other major crops) breeding

• Tempting to believe gains will be achieved solely with new

technologies – molecular biology and the –omics…..

Trends in grain yields are static…

New technologies – rise of the „omics

• Genomics

• Transcriptomics

• Proteomics

• Metabolomics

Crop Physiology

Crop Ecology

Crop Breeding

•Agronomics – the forgotten omic

The Enviropig

• Applying molecular genetics at the intersection of food, human

health and a sustainable environment

• More efficient utilisation of P by the pig

• Reduced inputs by farmer

• Less environmental contamination

TM

The P Cycle

Animal

Production

Crop

Production

P Loss into the

Environment

Man

ure

Fertil

izer Feed

Crops

60-80% of P in feed

is Bio-unavailable &

passes into manure

~ 45-50% of P

applied as fertilizer

goes unused

Dietary P

supplements

P output into

non-feed crops

The P cycle

Key Issues from Session 4:

Food Safety Today and Tomorrow: The

challenges in changing food and farming

practices

Importance of Mycotoxins

• Secondary metabolites of fungal origin

• Specific Chemical Structures

• Numerous negative effects

• CARCINOGENIC

• CYTOTOXIC

• ESTROGENIC

• IMMUNOSUPPRESSANT

• NEPHROTOXIC

• NEUROTOXIC

• TERATOGENIC

• Major issue through history and in present day

Importance of zoonoses

• in last 20 years, 73% of all emerging human infections are zoonotic

• Food-borne zoonoses (re)emerging and a continuous threat due to a changing environment (open borders, changing diets and lifestyles, greater susceptibility of some)

• Antimicrobial resistance is increasing rapidly

• Old Culprits – but still an issue today

• Non typhoid Salmonella (S. Enteritidis, S. Typhimurium)

• Brucella

• Anthrax

• New culprits

• Campylobacter

• E. coli O157

• Norwalk/Noro virus

• Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies

Research needs…

• Risk assessment and mathematical

modelling to predict trends and support

risk management

• Improved detection and prediction methods

• Enhanced surveillance systems, rapid

communication and tracking & tracing

systems to detect and report (new) pathogens,

and implement interventions

• Special attention in technology transfer has

to be given to developing countries

Animal-derived foods

• Contribute to

– (essential) nutrient intake

– taste and enjoyment of meals

• ... but are criticised for

– being unhealthy

– their environmental impact

– animal welfare

• Environmental impact

• Animal welfare and health

• Human health impact

• Competition for feed use for bio-energy and

aquaculture

• Use of natural resources – ethics

• But significant opportunities for animal

derived foods

Challenges for animal production

Plants for the Future

Build on Green Revolution

Address environmental issues

of intensive agriculture

Identify trade-offs and

constraints

Biotechnology and GM crops

as a coherent answer to

these challenges.

The future for GM plants –

direct benefits for consumers

Plants as Factories Vitamins long-chained

fatty Acids Omega-3-fatty Acids Enzymes Biopolymers Color Pigments Pharmaceuticals Fibers

Stress Protection Cold Drought Salinity

Healthier Nutrition and Quality Amino Acids Oil Starch

Pest Protection Virus Nematode Fungi Insect

1997 2015 20252005

More efficient Agriculture Bt-technology Herbicide

resistance

Emerging bio-economy built on

green and white biotechnology

Green biotechnology White biotechnology

Some suggested actions to deal with

overregulation and public opinion......

• Improve science education and awareness of theimportance of science in decision making.

• But move from “educating the public” to “engaging with the public”.

• Discuss new products with consumer organisations.

• Explain the consequences of not using GM plants –benefits vs risks.

Key Issues from Session 5:

Regulatory Issues

Risk = exposure x consequence

•OECD‟s Working Group for the Harmonisation of

Regulatory Oversight in Biotechnology

(Environmental safety of transgenic organisms)

• OECD‟s Task Force for the Safety of Novel Foods and

Feeds

• Regulation of Animal Biotechnology in the US,

including cloning

•Biosafety assessment processes

of the EFSA GMO Panel

Some key outcomes for the CRP

from Prague Conference….

Sustainable agriculture requires an integrated approach involving

private and public sectors on:

productivity – harnessing science, technology, structures, and

supply chain links

practices – taking environmental outcomes and resource

pressures into account

prices – providing the right signals to farmers

policies – coherent approach to complement markets at domestic,

regional and global levels

Consideration of social and educational issues

an Integrated Approach is needed…

To achieve this..

Agricultural research needs to be broader

In Scope:

• Productivity, environment/NRM/biodiversity,

food chain dynamics, food safety, human nutrition,

health, non-food products, climate change, socio-

economic issues

and in Scale:

• from molecules to landscapes

• from local to global

• from farmers to stakeholders

Some key outcomes for CRP

• Communication gap between the agricultural research community, policy makers and stakeholders needs to be closed

• agricultural research community must focus on relevant research on key constraints, think “outside the box” and adopt a multi-disciplinary approach

• Need for more careful assessment of technological solutions and focus on how to get new approaches adopted – how to have impact.

• the issue of the assessment and perception of risk associated with new technologies needs more holistic attention

• Recent declines in agricultural research budgets need to be reversed to deal with food security and climate change issues

• Social sciences need to be integrated in order to enhance adoption of new technologies and practice change

Outcomes and Directions

• By 2050 agricultural research needs to support:

• a doubling of world food production

• a reduction in the environmental footprint

• Maintenance of economic returns for farmers and landscape managers

• Rationalise the allocation of photosynthate into food, fuel and carbon

sequestration

• How to achieve that?

• Application of new technologies and integrated management packages

to re-invigorate productivity gains in major food crops and livestock

systems

• Policy settings and incentives which recognise and reward the

environmental gains made by land holders, particularly in sustainable

management of key resources - soil, water and natural vegetation

• Policy settings which assist agriculture to adapt to climate change

• Greater focus on supply chain dynamics, particularly post-harvest

losses and inefficiencies in developing economies

Focal areas for new CRP mandate provide

sound coverage of the issues and needs:

Themes

Natural Resources

Challenge

Sustainability in Practice

The Food Chain

Focal Issues

Water

Biodiversity

Forests

Landscapes and Soils

Spatial policy

Invasive Species and Biosecurity

Animal and plant productivity

Bioproducts and bioprocesses

Waste and Losses

Aquaculture, marine ecosystems

Energy use in food chain

Food Security and

Climate change as

overarching drivers

Contact Us

Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176

Email: enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au

Thank you

Dr. Gary Fitt

Deputy Chief

CSIRO Entomology

gary.fitt@csiro.au