Pragmatic model design and BMP verification for better ... · Pragmatic model design and BMP...
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Pragmatic model design and BMP verification for better stormwater decisions
SWAMP Data Science Symposium Sacramento, CA
June 30, 2017
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Stormwater impacts
Urban Hydrograph
Natural Hydrograph
• Pollutant delivery • Habitat degradation • Loss of GW recharge • Low flow reductions • Stream aesthetics
• How do we make decisions about what to do relative to level of impact/benefit potential?
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Seeking the modeling sweet spot
From: EPA Guidance on the Application of Environmental Models, 2009
• We can’t measure everywhere all the time, models help fill the gaps
• All models are wrong, but some are useful
• Let purpose drive specification/application mode of the model
• Let intended users drive
the design
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Stor
mw
ater
Run
off - Baseline
---Post action
Uncertainty envelope
Benefits below model resolution
Costs of model complexity
Time
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Impervious cover Drainage
Land Use Soils
Data off the shelf
• Leverage publicly available data to greater use
• Create the spatial
framework for ongoing multi-benefit assessment
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Probability of rain
• Match the modeling
scale (time + space) to information needs
• Account for sources of variability that are not the focus of inquiry.
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Keep it simple, keep it spatial
Site Scale Urban Catchment Scale Drainage, MS4 Scale
Runoff generation + non-structural LID
Runoff routing to decentralized and centralized BMPs
Routing to downstream catchments + delivery to receiving waters
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Keep it simple, keep it spatial
• Spatial outputs support prioritization
• Tracking progress over
time supports permit compliance/reporting
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As simple as possible, but no simpler
• Focus detail on that we most need to know about
• BMP locations, types, performance condition
• Green = full function, Red = maintenance required
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Quantifying BMP performance
• Infiltration BMPs clog up and
stop working • Soil types, media, configurations,
loading rates tell us how quickly they do
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Planning Scenario
Baseline Planned Reduction
Runoff (ac-ft/yr) 598 462 136 (23%)
Particulates (T/yr) 71.3 29 42 (60%)
BR
Planning scenarios, Pacific Grove ASBS
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Groundwater recharge opportunities, City of Watsonville
Stormwater runoff + groundwater recharge potential
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Regional MS4 compliance, County of Santa Cruz
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Modeling for the masses
• Usable tools + transparent documentation = better decisions
• Empower those in a position to
take action that reduces stormwater impacts