Practical Techniques for Predicting the Future
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Transcript of Practical Techniques for Predicting the Future
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Practical Techniques for Predicting the Future
Jesse Schell@jesseschellTFNW 2015
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+ =PsychologyTechnology Destiny
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CrystalBallSociety.com
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5 patterns
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Pattern1Foundational Technology
Makes the Biggest Changes
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FOUNDATION
Decoration
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Mickey Mouse’s First Cartoon?
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Steamboat Willie (November, 1928)
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Plane Crazy (May, 1928)
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Pattern2
The Hype Curve
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The Hype Curve
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Pattern3
Disruption
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Pattern4
Technology Mostly Diverges
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Pattern5
History Keeps Repeating
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1849!
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2011Palmer Luckey(age 20)
1968IvanSutherland
1884NipkowDisk
1927Philo Farnsworth(age 20)
TV
VR
43 Years Later
43 Years Later
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Foundational Technology
Makes the Biggest Changes
The Hype Curve
Disruption
Technology Mostly Diverges
History Keeps Repeating5
4
3
1
2
Send your predictions to me!
Thanks!
Find slides at:
JesseSchell.com