Practical Application of Indicators for Urban Resilience

and Adaptation Planning

Richard H MossVisiting Fellow, AMS Policy ProgramSr. Scientist, JGCRI (on leave)

Session Goal• Explore potential for expanding utility of

indicators for planning and implementing measures to support urban adaptation and resilience

• Broad context: integrate bottom-up and top-down efforts– Local applications – many ongoing efforts– National Climate Assessment, National Climate

Indictors Systems (NCIS) and effort to advance a new ”sustained” assessment process

National Climate Indicators System

• Update status, rates of change, or trends

• NAS, NCA3, and other sources• Janetos and Kenney process

with multiple workshops & working groups

• Sustained assessment efforts, building on local interest and capacity

• Former federal advisory committee “SCAN” process revived interest

IAC Report Contents: Selected TopicsPractitioner perspectivesRecommendation #1: Establish a civil-society-based climate assessment consortium

a. A “backbone organization” for existing networks and organizationsRecommendation #2: Assess knowledge in the context of how it is applied

a. Sustained communities of practiceb. A focus on practical challenges faced by practitionersc. A template for analysis: stages of project implementation

Recommendation #3: Advance methods for climate risk managementa. User-framed evaluation of climate information b. Benefit-cost and other methodsc. Indicatorsd. Artificial intelligence e. Citizen and community science f. Geospatial analysis

Download the report, summary, and related materials at: www.climateassessment.org

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Managing Climate Risk: Situation “on the Ground”

Practitioner requests:• Sustain partnerships and support

networks• Provide authoritative information,

e.g., data, “tested practices”• Convey information needs to

research community• Simultaneously address

adaptation, mitigation, other goals• Assess equity implications• Provide climate science for design

processes, financial analysis, and other aspects of implementation

Perspectives of cities, states, tribes, NGOs, and businesses

Findings: • Some institutions and jurisdictions are

adapting and mitigating • Many more need basic facts and

support to understand the risks• Where vulnerability assessments and

action plans are completed, implementation can stall

Reported challenges in taking action: • “Mainstreaming”• Updating codes and policies• Obtaining financing• Building capacity• Communicating with stakeholders• Monitoring and evaluation (indicators)

What would help connect science to actions being taken?

Science for Climate Action Network (SCAN)

• A civil-society-based initiative to accelerate action

• Convening process ongoing

• Launching pilot assessments

• Please partner:www.climateassessment.org

SCAN Vision

• Support cities, states, and other groups mitigating and managing climate threats

• Establish consensus knowledge– How to use science to address shared challenges– Best practices and authoritative data

• Build relationships– Convene sustained “communities of practice” – “Social infrastructure” for transformative change

Communities of Practice : Example Topics for Applied Assessment

Managing impacts▪ Manage wildfire risk▪ Reduce inland/coastal flooding ▪ Safeguard public health▪ Prepare for cascading impacts

across affected sectorsSupporting traditional goals affected by climate▪ Promote economic vitality▪ Modernize infrastructure▪ Site public or private facilities▪ Ensure food security ▪ Sustain safe water supply▪ Conserve ecosystems

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Framing

Synthesizing Knowledge of Risks and Opportunities

Designing Options

Appraising and Making

Decisions

Enacting Decisions and

Plans

Monitoring and Re-evaluating

Stylized Steps in Project

Implementation

Example Assessment Framework: Implementation Challenges

Idea for Urban infrastructure indicators pilot

1. Evaluate current “state of practice” by surveying existing urban climate indicator efforts and frameworks– Ensure feasibility and applicability for communities of varying

sizes, capacities, situations– Consider potential for integration across scales (local to

national)2. Conduct additional urban infrastructure indicator studies

using the shared framework3. Analyze/disseminate results and support applications

– Local applications– Scalability within NCIS – aggregation of regional and national

information from local scale indicators

Lead authors: Susan Julius, Paul Kirshen, Joel Smith, William Solecki, and Rae Zimmerman

Advancing Practical Application of Indicators for Urban Resilience and Adaptation Planning

Session Organizers: Jordan West, Susan Julius & Mike Kolian, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

FEATURED SPEAKERS

Rae ZimmermanResearch Professor and Professor Emerita of Planning and Public Administration, New York University

“Challenges of combined indicators for cross-sectoral urban infrastructure assessments and urban social-ecological-technological sustainability”

Julie BluePrincipal Climate Scientist, Eastern Research Group, Inc.

“Applying insights from NCA4 to evaluate urban vulnerability: Indicators in EPA’s METRO tool”

Maria KoetterDirector of Sustainability, Louisville Metro Government

“Managing urban warming in Louisville, KY: Indicator uses and needs”

Discussion Questions

• Problems that practitioners are trying to solve?

• Indicator challenges?– Feasibility?– Data? – … ?

• Improving support?– How to make available

assets more useful?– What new assets/support

are needed?– Potential for integrating

bottom-up and top-down efforts?

BACKUP SLIDES

Professional Societies (ASCE, APHA, …)

Universities

Regional Centers and Hubs

Indigenous Nations

State and Local Governments

Community Based Organizations

Foundations, Private Sector, …

NCA Contributors• Universities• Federal Agencies• Regional Centers• Nonprofits• Private Sector

NCA

• Focused on USGCRP Topics

• Periodic and Special Reports

• Resources, Data, and Multimedia

• News and Updates

• Engagement and Participation

SCAN

• Focused on Practitioner Goals

• Problem-focused Sustained Partnerships

• TestedPractices and Authoritative Data for Applications

• Collaborative Learning

Science for Climate Action Network

(SCAN)

Expanded Sustained and AppliedNational Climate Assessment Process

Carbon Management: Example Mitigation Strategies for Applied Assessment

• Cutting carbon emissions and sequestering carbon are essential for climate stabilization• Applied assessments of mitigation

strategies would support durable, effective, viable, and acceptable carbon management tools and policies–Apply evolving understanding of

carbon cycle interactions with socio-environmental systems – Extend science assessed in USGCRP

“State of the Carbon Cycle” reports

Example strategies for assessment:• How different policies affect flows and

stocks of carbon, e.g., – Does limiting national carbon intensity of

production lead to importation of carbon-intensive products from overseas?

– How do commitments in urban areas affect flows of carbon from nearby rural areas?

• Tradeoffs of managing different forms of carbon (carbon dioxide vsmethane)? • Ensuring that carbon offsets are

durable?• Inform measuring, reporting, and

verifying mitigation commitments?• Manage effects of variability on

carbon pricing?

Summary: From “State of Science” to “State of Practice”

CurrentNationalClimateAssessment

Extended“Applied”ClimateAssessment

Organizedbysectorandregion

Addpractitioner-definedchallengesandproblems

Producesreportsandotherproducts

Supportssustainedpartnerships(e.g.,communitiesofpractice)andproducesauthoritative“testedpractices”andinformationtosupportprojectimplementation

Assessesvulnerabilitiesandrisks

Assessesapplicabilityandusabilityofscience(andotherknowledge)indifferentstagesofimplementingprojects

Convenedandgovernedbythefedswithsciencecommunitysupport

Someaspectsarecoordinatedbyaconsortiumofstates,localgovernments,tribes,andscientific/technicalgroups

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Co-Authors/Acknowledgements• Convening Lead Authors: Moss, R.H., Avery, S. Baja, K.,

Jacobs, K., Jones, A., Melillo, J., Scarlett, L. Stults, M., Zarrilli, D.

• Lead Authors: Burkett, M., Chischilly, A.M., Dell, J., Fleming, P.A., Geil, K., Knowlton, K., Koh, J., Carmen Lemos, M., Pandya, R., Richmond, T.C., Snyder, J., Waple, A., Whitehead, J.

• Contributing Authors: Fox, J., Ganguly, A., Joppa, L., Julius, S., Kirshen, P., Kreutter, R., McGovern, A., Meyer, R., Neumann, J., Solecki, W., Smith, J., Tissot, P., Yohe, G., Zimmerman, R.

• Acknowledgements: State of New York, Columbia University, American Meteorological Society, and reviewers

Background

“Conveners”

• Bilal Ayyub (U of Maryland)

• Taryn Finnessey (State of Colorado)

• Mary Glackin (IBM and AMS)

• Alice Hill (Hoover Institution)

• Kathy Jacobs (U of Arizona)

• Jerry Melillo (The Ecosystem Center, Marine Biological

Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA)

• Richard Moss (American Meteorological Society)

• Sascha Petersen (Adaptation International)

• Lynn Scarlett (The Nature Conservancy)

• Dan Zarrilli (Mayor's Office, City of New York)