Practica 01.xlsx

Transcript of Practica 01.xlsx

DecisionDemanda

Baja Media AltaPequeo 150 250 300

Grande 500 200 100

Probabilidades 0.3 0.5 0.2

Recomendaria construir una planta pequea con un costo de 230,000 dolares

DecisionDemanda

Baja Media AltaPequeo 150 250 300
Grande 500 200 100

Construir una planta pequea con un costo de 300,000 dolares

DecisionDemanda

Baja Media AltaPequeo 150 250 300Grande 500 200 100

Recomendaria construir una planta grande, con una valor de 100,000 dolares

Decision DemandaBaja Media Alta

Pequeo 150 250 300Grande 500 200 100

Minimos 150 200 100

Decision DemandaBaja Media AltaPequeo 0 50 200Grande 350 0 0

La decision sera optar por una fbrica pequea con un valor de 200,000 dolares


Decision Demanda
Decision Baja Media AltaPequeo 0 50 200Grande 350 0 0


Recomendaria construir una fabrica pequea


Alfa 0.6

La decision que deberia tomar es contruir una planta pequea, con un valor de 210,000 dolares



Mejor 150 200 100

El valor maximo que estarian dipuesto a pagar por informacion perfecta es de 65,000 dolares

Falso, es de 65,000
VME

230

270

Recomendaria construir una planta pequea con un costo de 230,000 dolares

MAXIMIN300
500

Construir una planta pequea con un costo de 300,000 dolares

MAXIMAX150100

Recomendaria construir una planta grande, con una valor de 100,000 dolares

ARREPENTIMIENTO200350

La decision sera optar por una fbrica pequea con un valor de 200,000 dolares

PRDIDA150200100
POE65

105

MEJOR PEOR HURWICZ150 300 210100 500 260

La decision que deberia tomar es contruir una planta pequea, con un valor de 210,000 dolares

VME 230VECIP 165VEIP 65

El valor maximo que estarian dipuesto a pagar por informacion perfecta es de 65,000 dolares
Baja Media AltaConstruir 100 500000 500000 500000Construir 200 0 1000000 1000000Construir 300 -700000 400000 1500000

probabilidad 0.3 0.5 0.2

Deberia construir 200 con un valo de 700,000

probabilidad 0.3 0.5 0.2

confiabilidades
Baja Media AltoM1 0.7 0.3 0.1M2 0.2 0.4 0.3M3 0.1 0.3 0.6

Baja Media AltoM1 0.21 0.15 0.02M2 0.06 0.2 0.06M3 0.03 0.15 0.12

M1 0.55 0.39 0.05M2 0.19 0.63 0.19M3 0.10 0.50 0.40

M1 0.55 0.4 0.05M2 0.19 0.62 0.19M3 0.10 0.50 0.40

VEIP 719200VME 700000

19200

Debe aceptar , gasta menos

Prob. Posteriori redondeadas usadas en el arbol

La estrategia debe ser si es Debil M1 debe construir 100 con utilidades de 500,000 si es moderada M2 debe construir 200 con ultilidades de 810,000 , y si es fuerte M3

debe contruir 200 con utilidades de 900,000
VME500000700000
P. Marginales0.380.32

0.3

La estrategia debe ser si es Debil M1 debe construir 100 con utilidades de 500,000 si es moderada M2 debe construir 200 con ultilidades de 810,000 , y si es fuerte M3

debe contruir 200 con utilidades de 900,000
For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Onlyfile:///var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_3/266777676.xlsxwww.TreePlan.com

TreePlan Trial Version, For Evaluation Only

Contruir 100

0

0.38M1 Contruir 200

10 500 0

Contruir 300

0
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Contruir 100

0

0.32M2 Contruir 200

2719.2 0 810 0

Construir 300

0
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Construir 100

0

0.3M3 Contruir 200

20 900 0

Contruir 300

0
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0.55 www.TreePlan.comBaja

500500 500

0.4Media

500500 500 500

0.05Alta

500500 500

0.55Baja

00 0

0.4Media

1000450 1000 1000

0.05Alta

10001000 1000

0.55Baja

-700-700 -700

0.4Media

400-150 400 400

0.05Alta

15001500 1500
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0.19Baja

500500 500

0.62Media

500500 500 500

0.19Alta

500500 500

0.19Baja

00 0

0.62Media

1000810 1000 1000

0.19Alta

10001000 1000

0.19Baja

-700-700 -700

0.62Construir 300 Media

400400 400 400

0.19Alta

15001500 1500
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0.1Baja

500500 500

0.5Construir 100 Media

500500 500 500

0.4Alta

500500 500

0.1Baja

00 0

0.5Media

1000900 1000 1000

0.4Alta

10001000 1000

0.1Baja

-700-700 -700

0.5Media

400730 400 400

0.4Alta

15001500 1500valuation Only
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Practica 01.xlsx

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Transcript of Practica 01.xlsx