PPWNov13- Day 2 pm- Mogues and Billings- IFPRI
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Transcript of PPWNov13- Day 2 pm- Mogues and Billings- IFPRI
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Political economy determinants of public investments for nutrition in MozambiqueWorkshop on Approaches and Methods
for Policy Process Research
November 18 - 20, 2013
Lucy Billings*, Tewodaj Mogues* and Domingos M. do Rosário+
*International Food Policy Research Institute+ Universidade Eduardo Mondlane
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Study motivation and objectives
• Empirically test theory on political economy drivers for public investment decisions
• Apply theory to a complex multi-sector topic – Nutrition
• Examine the topic in a context with extensive development and nutrition challenges – Mozambique
• From the perspective of this workshop’s themes:• Analysing policy processes• Using research evidence to influence/engage with policy processes• Evaluating the contribution fo research to policy process formulation
Mode 1.2
Development outcomes
Public Expenditures
Political economyfactors
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Donors ● Bureaucrats ● Beneficiaries NGOs ● Politicians ● Researchers
Budget-maximizing Vote-seeking Knowledge Collective action
Olson 1985; Tridimas 2001; Binswanger & Deininger 1997
Framework
Public investment decisions
Political and economic governance environment
Actors...
… and their attributes & incentives
Characteristics of investments
Budget process
Visibility
Lag
Keefer & Khemani 2005
Socio-economic inequality Political liberties
Rule of law Corruption
de la Croix & Delavallade 2009; Keefer & Knack 2007
de facto
de jure
Cohen et al. 1972; Davis 1971; Cowartet al. 1975; Ostrom 1977; Reinikka & Svensson, 2004
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For this study
Public investment decisions
Political and economic governance environment
Characteristics of investments
Budget process
Actors...
… and their attributes & incentives
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Qualitative analytical methods• Process tracing (Beach and Pederson, 2013) – Within-case
inferences on the presence or absence of causal mechanisms
Theory-testing: Identify if the theorized causal mechanisms are present and if they function as anticipated
Theory-building: Investigate the empirical material to identify causal mechanisms between defined explanatory and outcome variables
• Resource flow map – A component of PETSs (Reinikka and Svensson 2006, Koziol and Tolmie 2010), which seek to identify public expenditure inefficiencies. We will not conduct a full PETS in this study, but will develop a RFM to track budgeting and spending processes
• Identification of emerging themes – Apply the Grounded Theory method (Glaser and Strauss, 2012) to analyse data across sites within Mozambique, and identify themes that further develop theoretical framework
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Public investment decisions
Political and economic governance environment
Characteristics of investments
Budget process
Process-tracing: theory-testing
Actors...
… and their attributes & incentives
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Process-tracing: theory-testingCharacteristics of investments
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Visibility and lag of
investments
Attributabiliy to decision
maker
Political credit
Public resource
allocation to nutrition
OutcomeCausal
mechanismCausal
mechanism
Investment is recognisable; Time between
resource allocation and
outcomes
Identification of decision
makers responsible
for allocation
Greater support for politician
Level of & change in
public expenditures on nutrition
Explanatory
TH
EO
RE
TIC
AL
EM
PIR
ICA
L
Process-tracing: theory-testing Characteristics of investments
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Public investment decisions
Political and economic governance environment
Characteristics of investments
Budget process
Process-tracing: theory-building
Actors...
… and their attributes & incentives
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Coordination across
sectors & agencies
? ?
Public resource
allocation to nutrition
OutcomeCausal
mechanismCausal
mechanism
Observable manifestations
Observable manifestations
Level of & change in
public expenditures on nutrition
Explanatory
TH
EO
RE
TIC
AL
EM
PIR
ICA
L
One agency’s knowledge of and influence
on another
Inferred existence
Facts of the case
Process-tracing: theory-building Actors and their incentives
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Public investment decisions
Political and economic governance environment
Characteristics of investments
Budget process
Resource flow map
Actors...
… and their attributes & incentives
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• Which actors are involved?
• Who are the decision makers?
• What is the budget process direction?
• What are the intermediary steps?
• What are the different types of allocations?
Resource flow map Budget process
Funding sources
Beneficiaries
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Study area
Country – MozambiqueNational level perspective
3 provincesTeteNampulaSofala
6 districts2 districts selected from each province: one high and one low-investment district
Selected districts so far
Maputo (capital)
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Empirical tools
Key informant interviews
Data processing approach• Full transcription of all interviews• Coding using NVivo• Translation of Portuguese sections
of coded material
National
Provincial
District
Total
Government 7 9 15 31
NGOs 6 9 15
Donors 4 4
Other 3 3
TOTAL 20 18 15 53
Document review• Government fiscal documents • Donor initiative commitments• NGO project and program planning documents
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Preliminary findings: Actors and their incentives
• Motivations of government officials impact level of engagement in information sharing and opportunity seeking
• Attempts at even geographic coverage of resource allocations: Strong donor coordination body for nutrition
• Still many gaps in inter-agency coordination: some NGOs implement nutrition projects without strong awareness of government nutrition initiatives and programs
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Preliminary findings: Characteristics of Investments
• High visibility and quick implementation: Vitamin A distribution during National Health Week, vs. nutrition education for behavioural change
• Ability to show measurable impacts
• Alignment with international nutrition priorities and employment of evidence-based interventions
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Preliminary findings: Budget Process• There is no nutrition budget line item so any allocations for nutrition are made within sector budgets
• Nearly all funding for nutrition comes from donor contributions
• Donor priorities drive budget allocations (mostly in a top-down process)
• Donor allocation pathways include:
Through government – within a single sector (usually health)
Through NGOs – easier to employ a cross-sector approach
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Thank you
Questions?
Feedback?Analytical strategy
Experience with process tracing analysis