PPAI Breakout Session Report

July 21, 2011

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PPAI Breakout Session Report

• Introductions• A review of PPAI activities In 2011• Discussion on the Large Scale Circulation and

Climate Extremes– What large scale circulation features lead to

increased probability of specific extremes– A viable framework to validate climate model

simulations for application in climate extremes

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PPAI Breakout Session Report

• Discussion on the sea-ice working group– Based on the comments received from the US CLIVAR

(e.g., too broad), make necessary adjustments and resubmit

– Place more focus on the influence of sea-ice changes on the high latitude climate variability on seasonal time scale

• Discussion on NRC report on the assessment of seasonal and intra-seasonal prediction– What is the influence of intraseasonal variability on

modes of climate variability (and consequently, on extremes)

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PPAI Breakout Session Report

• Discussion on the PPAI panel activities• Joint session with the POS on TRACE• Decadal prediction and predictability of North

Pacific Variability– What mechanisms are responsible?– Intercomparison of processes responsible for

decadal variability in Pacific among different models

• Summary of ASP-CLIVAR workshop on climate extremes 4

PPAI Breakout Session Report

• Discussion on Application interface• Intercomparison of CMIP3 and CMIP5 for sub-

continental and regional scale variability over the US

• To provide some guidance best available projection for the user community

• Some thoughts on workshops

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Possible Working Group Proposals and Ideas

• Large scale climate patterns responsible for climate extremes (Richard Grotjahn)• Identification of climate extremes of relevance• Connection with large scale circulation• Assessing the simulation of large scale patterns in

climate simulation• Understanding reasons for biases

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Possible Working Group Proposals and Ideas

• Climate and Carbon (Annalisa Bracco & Curtis Deutsch)• Problem: Uncertainties in the relative role of ocean

stratification and winds on air-sea CO2 fluxes (relevant for attributions and for quantifying uncertainties in future changes)

• Strategy: Develop a coordinated multi-model analysis of carbon-climate interactions in CMIP5 model outputs

• Activities:• Identify metrics of physical variation (upper ocean density gradient,

pCO2 or CO2 flux, wind strength, carbon export)• Identify common regions for flux analysis• Identifying time scales (long-term trends, decadal/interannual

variability)• Perform analysis• Reporting

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Possible Working Group Proposals and Ideas

• Resubmit the sea-ice working group proposal (Ron Lindsay)

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Possible Working Group Proposals and Ideas

• Inter-comparison of processes responsible for decadal variability in North Pacific (Cristiana Stan) • Counterpart of AMOC focus on decadal

predictability in Atlantic• What mechanisms are responsible for the PDV?• Intercomparison of mechanisms responsible for

decadal variability in Pacific among different coupled models

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Possible Workshops

• Explore possibility of a summer colloquium in conjunction with the ASP on ‘Climate and Carbon” (Annalisa Bracco ; Curtis Deutsch)

• Predictability of the sequence of climate events (water management services) (Gregg Garfin) ~ $20K

• Interfacing CLIVAR Science with Applications (management of forestry and natural resources)

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Impressions About the Joint OCB-CLIVAR Workshop

• Small group discussions could have been beneficial

• It would have been useful for co-chairs of both OCB and CLIVAR to discuss agenda and goals before the meeting (conference call)

• If number of participants was a factor, it could have been limited to OCB scientists with interest on climate (lot of microbial people this year)

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Others

• Thoughts on either a small grants program or a more substantive collaborative program on the inter-comparison of CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations in the context of regional climate over the US (Gregg Garfin)

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