PowerPoint Presentation Template - Asheville · 2019-06-03 · © 2018 STR, Inc. All Rights...

© 2018 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.

Hospitality OutlookAsheville, NC

Chad ChurchSTR

[email protected]


Agenda:

1. United States Industry overview

2. Local Market update

3. Comparable Markets

4. Forecast

© 2018 STR. All Rights Reserved.

Total US - Key StatisticsTwelve Month Moving Average December 2017

% Change• Hotels 53 k• Room Supply 1.9 bn 1.8%• Room Demand 1.2 bn 2.7%• Occupancy 65.9% 0.9%• ADR $126.72 2.1%• RevPAR $83.57 3.0%• Room Revenue $156 bn 4.9%


Total United StatesRoom Supply/Demand Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average – 2000 to December 2017

1.8 2.7

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Supply % Change Demand % Change Feb ’117.8%

Sept ’09 -7.1%

Mar ’02-4.7%


Total United StatesOccupancyTwelve Month Moving Average – 2000 to December 2017

65.9

50

55

60

65

70

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

June ’0663.6

Jan/Feb ’1054.5


Total United StatesAverage Daily RateTwelve Month Moving Average – 2000 to December 2017

126.72

75

85

95

105

115

125

135

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

June ’0185.75

Sept ’08107.70


Chain ScalesOccupancy / ADR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average December 2017

0.3

0.0 0.1

0.7

1.2

0.6

2.0

1.4 1.4 1.5

2.1

2.7

Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy

Occupancy ADR


Total United StatesUnder Contract Pipeline by Chain Scale – In ThousandsDecember 2017

8.6 22.4

53.5 62.7

1… 1.9 19.23.8

18

68.3

76.1

23.9

1.1

14.71.9

13.4

40.5

57.9

29

7.9

52.1

Luxury UpperUpscale

Upscale UpperMidscale

Midscale Economy Unaffiliated

In Construction

Final Planning

Planning


Agenda:




4. Forecast


Buncombe Co. Hotel CensusAs of December 2017

511 15

713

21

Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Independent

1,1751,437 1,529

7621,116 1,153

Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Independent

Properties (77)

Rooms (7,694)


Development Activity

• 19 properties in the active pipeline – Either in construction or planning stages– Approx. 754 rooms slated for 2018 (~10% of current stock)

Element by Westin

Holiday Inn & Suites Arden

Glo Hotel – Best Western

Hampton Inn & Suites Biltmore Area

The Asheville Foundry Inn, Curio Collection by Hilton

Arras

The Parisian

LaQuinta Inn & Suites


Buncombe County Performance SnapshotKey Performance IndicatorsTwelve Month Moving Average percentage change December 2015 -2017

4.8

1.2

-1.1

8.47.6

2.5

13.5

8.9

1.5

2015 2016 2017

Occupancy ADR RevPAR


Buncombe County Hotel Class SegmentsOccupancy/ADR/RevPAR Percent ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average 2017 vs. 2016

-1.2

-2.3

-0.2

2.93.2

2.21.6

0.9

2.0

Lux/Upper Up Upscale/Upper Mid Midscale/Econ



Buncombe County Performance SnapshotKey Performance IndicatorsTwelve Month Moving Average December 2017 vs. 2016

-1.1

2.5

1.5


$153.88

$112.23

- 77 Hotels - 7,694 Rooms- 92.0% Rooms Sampled

72.9%


Buncombe CountyRoom Nights AvailableTwelve Month Moving Average 2004-2017

2,000,000

2,100,000

2,200,000

2,300,000

2,400,000

2,500,000

2,600,000

2,700,000

2,800,000

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Supply Growth+4.5%


Buncombe CountyRoom Nights Available & DemandTwelve Month Moving Average 2004-2017

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

2,200,000

2,400,000

2,600,000

2,800,000

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Supply Demand

Demand +3.4%

Prior Peak:Mar 2007

1.45m


Buncombe CountyOccupancy Rate by Month2016 vs. 2017

52.3

56.9

70.0

78.7 74.3

81.7 84.6

77.4 78.2

84.8

72.6 69.8

46.6

57.4

68.7

74.2 75.7

80.7 83.6

78.1 79.6 83.0

74.3 71.3

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2016 2017


Buncombe CountyDay of Week OccupancyAnnual 2013 - 2016

54.6 57.3 58.459.262.1

66.6 66.0 65.566.2

70.9 71.0 70.567.3

71.6 72.5 72.469.3

73.2 74.674.1

81.983.3

84.8 82.5

85.4 86.9 88.286.5

2014 2015 2016 2017

Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday


Buncombe CountyAverage Daily Rate (ADR) by Month2016 vs. 2017

110 115 120

144 145 150

163 154 157

189

157 162

111 118 126

144 150 156 163

156 164

188

164 169


2016 2017


Buncombe CountyOccupancy & Average Daily Rate % Change by Month2017

-10.8

1.0

-1.9

-5.7

1.8

-1.2 -1.3

0.81.8

-2.2

2.3 2.10.9

2.2

4.8

0.1

3.7 3.8

0.31.9

4.3

-0.6

4.0 4.2


Occupancy ADR


STR and AirDNA Definitions

STR Room Demand – The number of hotel rooms sold in a specified time period (excluding complimentary rooms) as tracked by STR.

Hotel Comparable – Studio and one bedroom entire place rentals. AirDNA believes these are the type of listings most likely to compete directly with hotels.

Other Types – AirDNA entire place room nights less hotel comparable room nights. This would include 2+ bedroom rentals.


Buncombe CountyRoom Nights Demand – Airdna & STRMonthly 2015 - 2017

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

200,000

240,000

280,000

320,000

2015 2016 2017

Hotel Comparable Other Types STR - Hotel Total

2%4%

94%

7%

19%

74%

Source: Airdna & STR


Buncombe CountyRoom Nights Demand – Airdna & STRMonthly 2015 - 2017

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

160,000

200,000

240,000

280,000

320,000

2015 2016 2017

Hotel Comparable STR - Hotel Total

2%

98%

9%

91%



Airdna Hotel Comparable Room Nights BookedMonthly - 2017

4,554 4,748

7,090 8,258

9,165 10,186

12,018 11,698 11,867

14,655

12,205

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

147 170 229 275 296 340 388 377 396 473 407

Source: Airdna


Airdna Hotel Comparable Rooms vs. STR OccupancyMonthly - 2017

36.642.2

55.159.3 57.4

62.567.7

61.8 60.965.5

56.0

46.6

57.4

68.774.2 75.7

80.7 83.678.1 79.6

83.0

74.3


Airdna STR



Total Occupancy (AirDNA Hotel Comparable and STR)Monthly - 2017

46.1

56.6

67.973.3 74.4

79.4 82.476.8 78.2 81.4

72.6


Source: AirDNA & STR


Airdna Hotel Comparable vs. STR ADRMonthly - 2017

113 115 120 121 121 120 121 119 121 127 125111

118 126

144 150 156163 156

164

188

164


Airdna STR



Airdna Hotel Comparable vs. STR ADR % ChangeMonthly vs. Last Year - 2017

2.2 2.5

9.4

3.5

6.04.9

1.42.5 2.4

4.1 4.5

0.9

2.2

4.8

0.1

3.7 3.8

0.3

1.9

4.3

-0.6

4.0


Airdna STR



Agenda:




4. Forecast


Comparable MarketsSupply % ChangeTotal Year 2015 - 2017

0.4 0.5

2.5

-0.4

0.3

4.4

1.7 1.5

4.9

2.6

4.5

2.0

4.1

0.4

1.2

Buncombe Savannah Charleston Greenville Chattanooga

2015 2016 2017


PipelineCurrent Supply / New Supply2018 - 2019

Market/Submarket 2015 % Growth 2017 % Growth 2019

Charleston, SC 18,957 7.5% 20,383 15.2% 23,484

Savannah, GA 14,979 3.5% 15,507 14.6% 17,769

Austin CBD, TX 8,704 11.5% 9,705 21.1% 11,752

Buncombe County, NC 6,966 10.5% 7,694 19.6% 9,205

Cary/South Raleigh, NC 4,966 9.9% 5,459 10.5% 6,034

Brentwood/Franklin, TN 4,787 6.9% 5,116 23.0% 6,294

Mount Pleasant/Isle Of Palms, SC 2,907 17.5% 3,416 26.4% 4,318


Supply % Change 2017 vs. 2015All United States Submarkets

-15.0%

-5.0%

5.0%

15.0%

25.0%

35.0%

45.0%

Asheville 10.6%599 of 643


Comparable MarketsDemand % ChangeTotal Year 2015 - 2017

5.2

3.32.8 2.7

10.7

5.6

0.3

3.0

6.5

2.7 3.4

2.2

5.2

2.63.4


2015 2016 2017


Comparable MarketsAbsolute OccupancyTotal Year 2015 - 2017

72.871.8

73.572.1

65.3

73.7

70.8

74.673.1

65.4

72.9

71.0

75.3 74.7

66.9


2015 2016 2017


Comparable MarketsAbsolute ADRTotal Year 2015 - 2017

$139.43

$109.95

$132.23

$92.01 $84.88

$150.07

$114.86

$136.80

$98.25 $89.48

$153.88

$116.40

$141.44

$101.67 $93.56


2015 2016 2017


Comparable MarketsADR % ChangeTotal Year 2015 - 2017

8.4 8.8

5.2

9.7

5.6

7.6

4.53.5

6.8

5.4

2.5

1.3

3.4 3.5

4.6


2015 2016 2017


Comparable MarketsWeekday Occupancy Total Year 2016 - 2017

68.5 67.171.7 72.7

60.968.3 67.4

73.2 74.2

62.6


2016 2017


Comparable MarketsWeekday OccupancyTotal Year 2016 - 2017

86.5

80.081.5

74.2

76.5

84.5

80.1 80.7

76.077.6


2016 2017


Agenda:




4. Forecast


Total United StatesKey Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year)2017F – 2018F

Outlook

2017Forecast

2018Forecast

Supply 2.0% 2.2%

Demand 1.7% 2.0%

Occupancy -0.3% -0.2%

ADR 2.8% 2.8%

RevPAR 2.5% 2.6%


Total United StatesChain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2017F by Chain Scale

2017 Year End Outlook

Chain ScaleOccupancy

(% chg)ADR

(% chg)RevPAR(% chg)

Luxury -0.4% 2.5% 2.1%Upper Upscale -0.2% 2.5% 2.3%

Upscale -1.1% 2.5% 1.3%Upper Midscale -0.7% 2.3% 1.6%

Midscale 0.1% 2.4% 2.5%Economy 0.0% 2.7% 2.7%

Independent -0.3% 3.0% 2.7%

Total United States -0.3% 2.8% 2.5%


Total United StatesChain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2018F by Chain Scale

2018 Year End Outlook

Chain ScaleOccupancy

(% chg)ADR

(% chg)RevPAR(% chg)

Luxury -0.2% 3.0% 2.8%Upper Upscale -0.1% 2.8% 2.7%

Upscale -0.7% 2.5% 1.7%Upper Midscale -0.6% 2.5% 1.9%

Midscale -0.2% 2.5% 2.2%Economy -0.1% 2.3% 2.3%

Independent -0.2% 2.8% 2.7%

Total United States -0.2% 2.8% 2.6%

PowerPoint Presentation Template - Asheville · 2019-06-03 · © 2018 STR, Inc. All Rights...

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