MEMBERSHIP PROPENSITY MODEL JUNE 2012. What is a Propensity Model?
PowerPoint Presentation · India GDP growth in major markets, 2017 Source: Oxford Economics %...
Transcript of PowerPoint Presentation · India GDP growth in major markets, 2017 Source: Oxford Economics %...
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•
•
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Tourism Economics
Facing the elements
Hurricanes
The economy
Politics
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Tourism Economics
Caribbean facing significant disruption
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Tourism Economics
Facing the elements
Hurricanes
The economy
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Tourism Economics
Accelerating globally
The economy is…
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Tourism Economics
World trade picking up
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
IATA air freight
Cass freight index
RWI container index
World: Alternative trade indicators% year, 3m average
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics/IATA
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Tourism Economics
…with emergers leading acceleration
5.0%
4.3%
3.7%3.6%
4.2%
4.5%
1.1%1.3%
1.9%2.1%
1.7%
2.0% 2.1%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Emerging Markets
Advanced Economies
World GDP
% change
Source: Oxford Economics
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Tourism Economics
Steady, broad-based growth
0.4%
1.4%
1.6%
1.7%
2.0%
2.2%
2.4%
2.5%
2.5%
2.6%
2.7%
6.6%
6.9%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%
Brazil
Japan
France
United Kingdom
Germany
United States
Mexico
Australia
Canada
South Korea
World
China
India
GDP growth in major markets, 2017
% change Source: Oxford Economics
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Tourism Economics20
Eurozone economy experiencing a mini-boom
We predict three more
years of above trend
growth for the Eurozone
and have recently raised
our forecast.
Healthy job markets are
encouraging increased
labor force participation.
Solid real wage gains are
expected.
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Tourism Economics
Accelerating globally
On solid footing in the US
The economy is…
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Tourism Economics
ISM Indexes at Decade Highs
22
Highest since 2004 Highest since 2005
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Tourism Economics
Business investment is starting to firm, after two years of sluggish growth
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Tourism Economics
Consumer spending is solid with confidence leading
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Tourism Economics25
Risk: Consumers’ “savings dip”
Consumer spending
growth has recently
outpaced modest
growth in after-tax
income.
Causing a dip in
savings.
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Tourism Economics
Household net worth is well ahead of its prior peak…
26
Gains in housing
markets and equity
values have boosted
household net wealth.
This is anticipated to
moderately boost
discretionary spending
over time.
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Tourism Economics
Equities continue to set new highs
27
High equity values indicate
elevated risk appetite among
investors.
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Tourism Economics
…while household debt service payments are well below
28
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Tourism Economics
Dollar appreciation has eased, returning to near its historical average
29
Value of the dollar in
2017Q3:
• 12% stronger than in
2014
• 2.5% stronger than
historical average
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Tourism Economics
Accelerating globally
On solid footing in the US
Supportive of travel growth
The economy is…
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Tourism Economics31
Consumers have dedicated an increased share of spending to lodging
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Index (Dec. 2011=100)
Consumer spending, US
Note: Data is nominal, three-month moving average, seasonally adjusted and extends through June 2017.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Tourism Economics
Air (34.2%) F&B (31.4%)
Lodging (41.8%)
Consumer spending (22.9%)
Recreation services (26.0%)
Motor vehicle fuel (-32.4%)
Growth 2011 to June 2017
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Tourism Economics32
Older households show the strongest increases in spending on lodging
16%
1%
20%
12%
8% 8%
23% 24%
Allhouseholds
Under 25 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75+
Household age brackets
Recent spending per household on lodging by agePercentage difference relative to long-term average for each age group
For example, households aged 65 to 74 are spending 23% more than similar households in the past
Note: Recent constant dollar spending (2013 to 2015) relative to long-term average for the same age brackets (1984 to 2015).
Source: BLS; Tourism Economics
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Tourism Economics
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
55 and over
35 to 54
Under 35
Year
2015: 42%
2000: 33%
2015: 36%
2000: 42%
2000: 25%2015: 22%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
55 and over
35 to 54
Under 35
Year
2015: 45%
2000: 35%2015: 41%
2015: 13%2000: 15%
2000: 50%
Seniors represent greater share of households and spending
Share of households by age Share of lodging spending by age
Note: Lodging spending is based on recent three-year average (2013 to 2015). Consumer spending represents leisure trips.
Source: BLS; Tourism Economics
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Tourism Economics34
Bermuda’s major markets are traveling more
50
100
150
200
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
UK
Canada
USA
International departures per capita1995=100
Source: Tourism Economics
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Tourism Economics
Facing the elements
Hurricanes
The economy
Politics
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Tourism Economics
Can both of these things be true?
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Tourism Economics
The source of uncertainty
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Tourism Economics
Trump Administration’s first 250 days: A positive or negative policy mix?
38
!?!
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Tourism Economics39
Policy upside & downside
Oxford baseline forecast
Modest $500 billion fiscal
stimulus package over the next
10 years, boosting GDP growth
about 50 bps.
Risks
Government shutdown
• GDP growth drag of 0.1 pp
for each week of shutdown
Debt ceiling crisis
• Spending cut by 3-4% of
GDP (size of federal budget
deficit)
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Tourism Economics
Curbing immigration big risk: Demand & Supply impact
40
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Tourism Economics
Restrictions on “Dreamers” would reduce employment & growth
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Tourism Economics
A protectionist stance would hurt the US economy
• Assume US slaps 45% tariff on China, 35% on Mexico and 20% on Korea
• Assume all three retaliate with equal tariffs on US exports
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Tourism Economics
Travel to the US has fallen
Overseas Mideast Africa Latin America Europe Oceania Asia
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
International visits to the US by region
Source: NTTO
January-May 2017, YTD % change
Loss of $3.5 billion in
first five months
alone
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Tourism Economics44
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Tourism Economics
How is Bermuda faring?
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Tourism Economics
The Bermuda comeback is on
46
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Caribbean comps* Bermuda
Overnight Arrivals1995=100
Source: Tourism Economics
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Tourism Economics
Cruise market outpaces the region
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Caribbean Bermuda
Cruise Arrivals1995=100
Source: Tourism Economics
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Tourism Economics
Visitor spending has surged since 2014
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2014 2015 2016 2017
Caribbean comps* Bermuda
Visitor Spending2014=100
Source: Tourism Economics
14% cumulative
44% cumulative
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Tourism Economics
And tourism is driving economic growth
13.813.4
14.515.0
8.47.8
8.58.8
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2014 2015 2016 2017
Total impact T&Tshare of GDP
Direct T&T shareof employment
% of total economy
Source: Tourism Economics
Travel & Tourism Share of Bermuda Economy
Source: WTTC, Oxford Economics
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Tourism Economics50
Summary
Outlook summary
GlobalWorld trade is driving acceleration in the world economy,
especially in emerging markets
US Consumers are confident and businesses are investing again
Travel marketsTravel propensity is rising on the back of sold fundamentals and
supportive demographics
PoliciesUS policy remains a wild card with both positive and negative
implications
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