Kindergarten Through Community College Public Education Facilities Bond Act of 2016

Fresno COE Successful Projects Workshop Series

David WalrathFebruary 10, 2016

Where We Are Now

› Qualified!

› We are committed to passing the State School Bond which includes: – New Construction ($3 billion)

– Modernization ($3 billion)

– Career Technical Education Program ($500 million),

– Charter School Facilities Program ($500 million)

– Community Colleges ($2 billion)

Polling

› On December 3, 2015 the Public Policy

Institute of California (PPIC) released its

most recent survey of California political

issues and elected officials.

› The PPIC survey was very positive with a

majority of California likely voters in support

of the State School Bond.

Campaign

› C.A.S.H. will need to raise $2.5 million, with its partner matching funds

› The campaign is expected to total approximately $10 million

› We are growing the coalition for more funding partners, expanding our outreach and furthering our grass roots efforts

› To contribute, please visit cashissuesstateschoolbond.com

› We look forward to your continued support!

School Board Resolutions

› In addition to the State School Bond, there will be multiple initiatives on the November 8, 2016 Statewide General Election Ballot. We will need to rise above the fray! We need every school district and county office to pass a resolution in support of the 2016 State School Bond.

› A sample resolution can be found on the C.A.S.H. website, cashnet.org and a sample copy is also available in your packet

› For additional information and to view the school board resolutions received to date, visit cashissuesstateschoolbond.com

Your Endorsement is Needed!

› We need the support of Associate members and

Individuals

› Please complete a State School Bond

Endorsement/Support Form today!

Endorsements to Date

› ORGANIZATIONS

• California Business Roundtable

• California Chamber of Commerce

• Small School Districts’ Association

• State Building and Construction Trades Council of

California

Endorsements to Date› S TAT E W I D E L E A D E R S | E L E C T E D O F F I C I A L S

• Tom Torlakson, California State Superintendent of Public

Instruction

• Delaine Eastin, Former California State Superintendent of

Public Instruction

• Jack O’Connell, Former California State Superintendent of

Public Instruction

• The Honorable John Burton

• Joan Buchanan, Former State Assembly Education Chair

• Bob Huff, Former California Senate Republican Leader

• Kristen Olsen, Former California Assembly Republican Leader

• Chad Mayes, California Assembly Republican Leader

Endorsements to Date› S TAT E W I D E L E A D E R S | E L E C T E D O F F I C I A L S

• Luis Alejo, Chair, California Latino Legislative Caucus

• Ian Calderon, California State Assembly

• Anthony Cannella, California State Senate

• Jim Cooper, California State Assembly

• Bill Dodd, California State Assembly

• Mike Gatto, California State Assembly

• Lorena Gonzalez, California State Assembly

Fundraising Events

› February 10, 2016 | 6 :00 p.m.

– Erickson-Hall Construction

– 502 Corporate Drive, Escondido

› February 17, 2016 | 5:00 p.m.

– Murdoch, Walrath & Holmes

– 921 11th Street, Sacramento

› March 14, 2016 | 5:00 p.m.

– Location TBD, Fresno

› April 12, 2016 | 5:00 p.m.

– Andrei’s in Irvine

– 2607 Main Street, Irvine

Summary

› We are on the ballot in November

› We see no reason to change

Thank You!

› We will win in November 2016!

› We need your support for our campaign to

make this promise a reality

Thank You Contributors!Triple Diamond

($50,000 and Greater)

Architects

DLR Group

HMC Architects

PJHM Architects

Ruhnau Ruhnau Clarke

WLC Architects

Construction Managers

Balfour Beatty Construction

Harris Construction

Neff Construction

Consultants and Planners

California Financial Services

Murdoch, Walrath & Holmes

School Facility Consultants

Financial Institutions

Stifel, Nicolaus & Company

Double Diamond

($40,000 - $49,999)

Construction Managers

Tilden Coil Constructors, Inc.

Furniture and Equipment Suppliers

Virco Manufacturing Corporation

Contact Information

David Walrath

dwalrath@m-w-h.com

916-448-8577

Coalition for Adequate School Housing

1303 J Street, Suite 520

Sacramento, CA 95814

Presented by

John Fairbank, Partner

February 10, 2016

22

Presentation Overview

I. Polling in 2016

II. California’s 2016 Election

III. Mood of the California Electorate

IV. School Finance Measure Research: The Basics

V. Local Case Study: Fresno USD Measure Q

23

24

Challenges on the Rise, but it is:

Still the Preeminent Strategic Campaign Tool

Still the Best Window Into Voter Attitudes and Behavior

Still the Best and Most Efficient Means to Affect Key Resource Decisions

25

The Basic Precept Still Holds: Give voters in

a particular universe an equal chance of

being interviewed.

The actual turnout must be correctly estimated based on both past voter history and current vote intention. What is past is not necessarily prologue. 2014 turnout was lower in California than anyone projected; 2008 turnout was higher nationally than anyone projected; 2016 turnout could yet prove very surprising;

Samples must include the proper mix of cell phones and landlines, with every trend increasing the importance of cell phones with each passing month;

26

Continued…

Different modes of interviewing—on-line, smartphone/tablet, Qualboards—must supplement the former core of telephone surveys and focus groups;

Polling samples are pulled from California’s highly-detailed voter file database, which lists all registered voters and includes information such as party preference, home address, and which past elections they have participated in.

27

Specific Questions for California:

Will the 2014 decline in turnout—evident everywhere, but most evident among Millennials and Latinos—be completely reversed, particularly among Millennials and Latinos, the two ascendant parts of the population?

Will the Top Two Primary finally produce a major statewide showdown (such as the U.S. Senate race) between two Democrats and will that alter turnout and strategies?

28

The Millennials:

Now America’s largest generation: Ages 18-34

Traditionally low-turnout voters, but came out for Obama

What will their turnout look like?

What party will they break for?

They will be a crucial wild card

29

Millennials Are:

Disproportionally Latino, Asian-American and African-American

Nearly half (44.2%) of millennials are racial or ethnic minorities

BUT – white millennials, who supported Obama in 2008, voted for Romney in 2012 and are now trending more Republican - they remain a competitive demographic

30

31

Demographics of the anticipated 2016

California Electorate - Differences from 2014

Nov. 2014 Nov. 2016

Democrats: 44% 45%

Republicans: 34% 31%

Independents: 22% 24%

Ages 18-49: 30% 44%

Ages 50+: 70% 56%

Latinos: 15% 20%

African-Americans: 3% 4%

Asians/Pacific Islanders: 5% 6%

Whites: 77% 70%

32

November 2016 Will Almost

Certainly See Numerous Well-Funded

Statewide Ballot Measures:

(Education measures in blue)

Prop. 30 Extension(s)

Marijuana Legalization

Tobacco Tax

Minimum Wage

Plastic Bag Referendum

Gun Control

Cortopassi Revenue Bonds Initiative

Drug Prices

Statewide School Bond Measure

Child Poverty Initiative

Political Reform

33

Districts considering a general obligation bond should prepare for the 2016 election cycle. The presence of

one or more statewide education measures on the ballot will benefit local efforts.

34

35

Views on the direction of the state

have vastly improved since 2010.

Would you say that things in the State of California are generally headed in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?

36

Impact of Current Events & the International Situation on the

California Electorate

Recent events in national politics and international affairs may be creating a greater willingness, even among voters who are usually fiscally conservative, to invest in their local government infrastructure and services.

Recent research has suggested that the present sense of pessimism many voters feel about the ability of the state and federal governments to adequately address issues they perceive to be problems has increased the pressure for proactive local government to fill the void created by inaction at the state and federal level.

37

Voters’ State of Mind Toward Local School & Community College Bond Measures

Despite a healthier state budget and the passage of Prop. 30in 2012, voters continue to think that schools and communitycolleges have major funding needs – both generally(statewide) and locally (specific to their own districts).

Voters recognize that basic repairs must be made toclassrooms and that many school and community collegebuildings are outdated, deteriorating, and do not meetcurrent health and safety standards.

Voters also prioritize access to quality careereducation/vocational training programs, science labs andclassroom technology to help prepare students for collegeand the workforce and (in the case of CCs) to help returningveterans transition to civilian life.

38

Voters’ State of Mind toward Local School & Community College Bond Measures –

Continued

Local school and community college bonds help provide localeconomic opportunities to residents, many of whom may nothave school-age children, by strengthening local propertyvalues and promoting investments that benefit local smallbusinesses.

Local school and community college bond measures acrossthe state are polling unprecedentedly well in 2016, wellabove the necessary 55% level of support.

Statewide education measures (e.g. statewide school bond)help local school and community college bonds bystrengthening the message of investing in colleges andeducation.

39

Voters’ State of Mind Toward Local School & Community College Bond Measures –

Continued

Districts considering a G.O. bond measure should take steps to prepare for placing a measure on the ballot as soon as possible as the 2016 election cycle provides the best opportunity for passage over the next several years.

40

Compared to the past several years, the number of voters who think schools

have a “great” need for funding has increased.

Great/Some Need

75%

75%

79%

78%

71%

71%

78%

76%

72%

72%

California’s K-12 grade

public schools

California’s community

colleges

Your local public schools

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Total

Agr.

Total

Disagr.

73% 19%

70% 25%

68% 25%

68% 29%

62% 36%

61% 36%

The higher perception of need is reflected in a

significant increase in the number who “strongly”

agree that many schools need repairs and upgrades.

Many schools and community

colleges throughout California are

old, outdated and need upgrades

to meet current health and safety

standards, including retrofitting for

earthquake safety and the

removal of lead paint, asbestos

and other hazardous materials

Repairing and upgrading

neighborhood schools and

community colleges is a top

priority that must be funded

despite the state’s fiscal problems

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Total

Yes

63%

55%

Total

No

33%

Support for the statewide school bond held steady above 60 percent throughout 2015 – more

research is planned for this year.

43

CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254.

Total

Agree

67%

57%

54%

Q9 a/f/i. Here is a list of statements about your local schools. Please tell me if you agree or disagree. ^Not Part of Split Sample

Twin Rivers USD voters view neighborhood schools as in need of repairs, updated technology, and quality teachers.

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CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254.

Q2.

Great/

Some

Need

72%

Generally speaking, would you say that Long Beach public schools have a great

need for more money, some need, a little need, or no real need for more money?

A Little/

No Real

Need

16%

More than seven in ten voters think LBUSD has a significant need for additional funding.

45

CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT. NOT FOR PUBLICATION. CA GOVT CODE 6254.

Great/

Some Need

76%

74%

Q5.

Twin Rivers USD voters also see a great need for more funding for local schools.

Generally speaking, would you say that ______ has a great need for additional

funding, some need, a little need or no real need for additional funding?

46

CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT

Little/

No Real

Need

13%

Great/

Some

Need

69%

Q3.

Generally speaking, would you say that the Sanger Unified School District has a great need

for additional funding, some need, a little need or no real need for additional funding?

Almost three-quarters (74%) of Sanger USD voters agree there is a need for additional funding.

Great need

Some need

Little need

No real need

DK/NA

June 2012 October 2015

Little/

No Real

Need

12%

Great/

Some

Need

74%

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Total

Yes

76%

Total

No

20%

Q3. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this school bond measure?

Long Beach USD is currently polling above 75% for a $1.5 billion bond measure.

71%

48

Total

Yes

73%

Total

No

19%

Q6.

Twin Rivers USD is also above 70% for a very large bond measure.

If the vote on this measure were held today, would

you vote yes in favor, or no to oppose it?

49

CONSULTANT WORKING DRAFT

Total

No

17%

Total

Yes

71%

A strong majority of voters would vote in favor of the Sanger USD measure on the initial reading.

Q4.

If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it

or no to oppose this bond measure?

50

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Key Elements of School Finance Measure

Opinion Research

Who do you interview? Likely voters: If you are trying to model potential election results – as is the

case with most polls on school finance measures – focus on voters who,

based on past elections, are likely to vote.

How many voters should you interview? Generally speaking, most school finance polls use samples of between 400

(+/- 4.9% error margin) and 1,000 (+/- 3.0% error margin). The larger and more

diverse the electorate, the larger sample size you will need.

How long should the survey take for the average respondent? A 15-20 minute baseline/benchmark survey allows enough time to test the

range of issues needed to assess voter attitudes and support for a local

school finance measure.

What type of research should be conducted? Quantitative (survey) research with a random sample of several hundred

respondents, usually by telephone, provides statistically valid results to

assess opinions, preferences and attitudes. Focus groups are very useful in

understanding public opinion, but do not have statistical validity. On a

limited budget, a poll is more important.

52

• Gauging the likelihood of a potential ballot measure’s success

• Assessing public perceptions of needs and priorities in their

community

• Testing alternative structures for a ballot measure, including a

bond (55%) or a two-thirds (66.7%) parcel tax measure

• Determining voters’ tax tolerance – how support changes at

different bond amounts and tax rates

• Determining which components of a ballot measure –

particularly potential uses of revenue – voters view most

favorably

• Assessing demographic patterns of support for a ballot

measure: base supporters, base opponents, and swing voters

Benefits of Feasibility Research for School

Finance Measures

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• Gauging reactions to various pro and con arguments and

their impact on the vote

• Testing whether variations in language and emphasis lead

to different reactions

• Identifying credible messengers

• Determining which election date will give a ballot measure

the greatest chance of success

• Overall goal: to identify numerous ways of tailoring the

structure and presentation of the measure to maximize

public support

Benefits of Feasibility Research for School

Finance Measures (cont.)

54

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The survey results guided revisions to the 75-word ballot label summary.

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The ballot label revisions were based on the specific projects and

uses of bond funds that received the highest level of support from voters.

(Ranked by Total Extremely/Very Important)

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(Ranked by Much More Likely)

The research also identified the accountability provisions that made voters

most likely to support the bond.

5. I am going to read a list of provisions that may be included in THE QUALITY NEIGHBORHOOD SCHOOLS, CLASSROOM REPAIR, STUDENT SAFETY AND EDUCATION IMPROVEMENT MEASURE. Please tell me whether you would be more likely or less likely to support the ballot measure if that feature were included. Split Sample

583, 4, 11, 13. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this bond measure?

FM3’s polling showed support for the measure at 73% after voters heard educational messages about the bond.

Measure Q won with 75%.

John@FM3research.com

For more information, contact:

12100 Wilshire Blvd, Suite 350

Los Angeles, CA 90025

Phone (310) 828-1183

Fax (310) 453-6562

PREPARING FOR A SUCCESSFUL BOND ELECTION

Successful Projects WorkshopFresno County of Education

February 10, 2016

Key Members of the Bond Measure Team

› Financial Advisor

› Bond Underwriter

› Bond Counsel

› Enrollment Projection Specialist

› Facility Master Plan Consultant/Architect

› Voter Opinion/Polling Consultant

› State Facility Eligibility Consultant

› Political Strategist (prior to calling for election)

Role of the Financial Advisor

› Develop bond measure scenarios

› Incorporate existing bond tax rates with future bond tax rates

› Ensure fair market tax rates when bonds are issued (assumes passage of bond measure)

› Assist is obtaining credit rating

›Work with County Treasurer in establishing annual bonded indebtedness tax rate

Role of the Bond Counsel

› Integral member of the bond measure team

› Provide input on bond election process

› Develop bond measure resolution including 75 word statement

› Ensure bond measure conforms with Proposition 39

›Works with the voter opinion consultant in drafting the 75 word statement

›Writes all legal opinions when bond are issued and ensures the tax exempt status of bonds

Role of Bond Underwriter

› Integral member of the bond measure team

› Analyses tax rate, interest and other financing issues

› Provides input on bond measure process

› Responsible for pre-marketing, marketing and sale of bonds

› Purchases the bonds and sells bonds to investors at lowest interest rates

Role of the Enrollment Projection Specialists

› Used to assist in development of grade level configuration and school site enrollment capacity

› Develops enrollment projects (7 to 10 years)

› Assists in determining new facility needs based on enrollment projections

Role of Facility Master Plan Consultant/Architect

› Used to establish the need for facility funding

› Used to establish estimated cost of projects

› Used to identify the priorities of projects to be funded

› Used to communicate with stakeholders (voters)

› Used to establish educational standards

› Used to establish facility standards

› Incorporates all aspects of a district’s facility program (enrollment projections, existing facility assessment, new school needs, financing options, etc.)

Role of Voter Opinion/Polling Consultant

› Assists in the development of survey document

› Conduct the voter opinion survey using acceptable research standards

› Analyses results of the survey

› Assists in determining the potential success of a bond measure election

› Assists in identify projects that resonate with voters

› Develops presentation to the Board on the results of the survey

State Facility Eligibility Consultant› Integral member of master plan and bond planning team

› Works with district staff to determine eligibility for State school facility funds

› Information becomes part of the master plan financing component

› Consider utilizing a firm knowledgeable in all aspects of facility funding (State bonds, local bonds, developer fees, LCFF, Proposition 39 energy funds, financial hardship, etc.)

› Post bond approval, assists districts in submitting application to State and maximizing construction funding

Political Strategist (prior to calling for election)› This type of service has not typically been used by Central Valley districts prior to the approval of bond measure resolution.

› Popular in other parts of the State, especially in districts where negative and political issues have surfaced in the past

› Serves as communication consultant by providing input for powerpoint presentations, district-wide communication, community meetings, arranging for meetings with influential individuals in the community.

› Cost of this consultant is a district expense up until the placement of a bond measure on the ballot.

› Typically hired as the political consultant by the campaign committee to work with committee in developing and implementing campaign—not an eligible district expense.

QUESTIONS?

Local Bond Measure Planning & Priority ProjectsDistrict Case Study: Kerman Unified School District

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Capital Facilities Program

Facilities Future Need Analysis/Planning

(FMP)

Finance

Analysis/Planning

Design/ Construction

75

Kerman Capital Facilities Program

FMP

Bond Ballot

Phase I

Build

Phase II

Build

Phase III Build

• Eight Year Build out Cycle

• Five - Six Year FMP Update Cycle

• Six Year Financing Cycle

2014-15

2018-20 2015-18

2015-16

2019-22

First Series2017

Second Series2019

Third Series2021

76

Kerman USD 2016 Bond Timeline

Bond Authorization

StudyFeasibility Study

Build Consensus & Build a Strong

Measure

Advocacy Campaign

• Poll• Election Timing• Tax Rate• Political Landscape• Competing Issues• Potential Controversy

• Write Resolution• Ballot Question• Non-Advocacy

Communication• Board Vote

• Private Fundraising• Direct Mail• Website• Endorsements• Phone Banks• Lawn Signs• GOTV

• Identification of FA and Bond Council

• Debit Capacity• Tax Rates• Series Timing• AV Growth

Jul – Nov2015

Jan – Mar2016

Mar – Jun2016

Jun – Nov2016

77

Bond Authorization Study• Debt Capacity

• Tax Rates

• Series Timing

• AV Growth

• Assumptions: Current Interest Bonds Only

Interest Rates:- Series A: 4.277%- Series B: 4.549%- Series C: 4.610%

Financing Term:- Series A: 30 years- Series B: 30 years- Series C: 28 years

4% Annual AV Growth Rates

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

Estimated Tax Rate (Series A) Estimated Tax Rate (Series B)

Estimated Tax Rate (Series C) Maximum Tax Rate

78

Feasibility Study• Poll

• Construct polling question to community

• Election Timing

• Which election June/November

• Tax Rate

• $30/$100,000 AV (Elementary District)

• $60/$100,000 AV (Unified District)

• Political Landscape

• Competing Issues & Controversy

• Identified and action plan developed to eliminate/mitigate impact

• Red Light/Green Light79

Build ConsensusBuild A Strong Measure

• Write Resolution

• Board resolution to place GO bond on ballot with parameters established through consensus stage of: Tax rate, ballot language, and Prop 39 project list

• Ballot Question

• Non-Advocacy Communication

• District engages community and stake holders

• Board Vote

• Calls for election must be 88 days before election

80

Advocacy Campaign

• Private Fundraising

• Set up fundraising activities

• Direct Mail

• Contact with voting audience

• Website

• Endorsements

• Influential members/organizations of the community

• Phone Banks

• Lawn Signs

• GOTV 81

Questions?

82

SUCCESSFUL BOND STRATEGIES

Foundational Work

Previous bond programs

High school priority athletic projects

District-wide facilities master plan

High school site master plans

Community engagement

Programmatic alignment

SUCCESSFUL BOND STRATEGIES

Facilities Master Plan

Community advisory committee

Educational program vision

Enrollment trends

Facility standards and assessment

Commitment to high quality facilities

Priority projects

Funding needs

SUCCESSFUL BOND STRATEGIES

Developing the Bond

Financial Advisor and Bond Counsel

Scenarios and timing

Amount and tax rate impact

Community survey

Project descriptions

The 75-word ballot question

SUCCESSFUL BOND STRATEGIES

Community Engagement

Community advisory committee

School district community

Labor partners

External community

Focus on high school communities

Neighborhood/regional groups

SUCCESSFUL BOND STRATEGIES

Governing Board

Communication throughout the process

Appointment of advisory committee

Multiple opportunities for input

Required adoption of bond resolution

SUCCESSFUL BOND STRATEGIES

Implementation Impacts

Local conditions/commitments

State legislation

Change in state funding programs

SUCCESSFUL BOND STRATEGIES

Current Planning

Exploring opportunity for Nov. 2016 bond

Community survey underway

Future recommendations to Board

SUCCESSFUL BOND STRATEGIES

Thank you to our Sponsors!

School Business Consulting, Inc.W.H. Byrd, Inc.