PowerPoint Presentation · 2019-11-01 · Case Shiller 07/2019 S&P Case Shiller. 7/2019 CoreLogic...
Transcript of PowerPoint Presentation · 2019-11-01 · Case Shiller 07/2019 S&P Case Shiller. 7/2019 CoreLogic...
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JULY 2019
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By Region
07/2019 FHFA
Actual Year-Over-Year % Change in Price
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07/2019 FHFA
Actual Year-Over-Year % Change in Price
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6.5%
6.2%6.0%
5.7%5.5%
5.3%5.2%
4.1%
3.5%
3.0%
3.7%3.5%
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2019 Feb Mar April
Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES20 City Composite
Case Shiller
07/2019 S&P Case Shiller
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7/2019 CoreLogic
Actual Year-Over-Year % Change in Price
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Year-Over-Year % Change in Price
7/2019 CoreLogic
3.6%
5.6%
Current Forecast
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CoreLogic
3.6%
4.7%
5.6%
May June July
CoreLogic’s 12 Month Price Forecast
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A nationwide panel of over one hundred
economists, real estate experts and investment
& market strategists.
Expectation Home Price
Survey
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27.7%
16.8%
6.7%
Bulls All Projections Bears
Cumulative House Appreciation
by 2023
2019 Q2 Home Price Expectation Survey
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4.1
2.82.5
3.03.4
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
PROJECTEDMean Percentage Appreciation
2019 Q2 Home Price Expectation Survey
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Source 2019 2020 2021 2022
Home Price Expectation Survey +4.1 +2.8 +2.5 +3.0
Mortgage Bankers Association +4.7 +3.5 +2.6 N/A
Zelman & Assoc. +3.5 +3.2 N/A N/A
Freddie Mac +3.6 +2.7 N/A N/A
National Association of Realtors +2.8 +3.2 N/A N/A
Fannie Mae +4.6 +2.9 N/A N/A
Projected Home Price % Appreciation Going Forward
07/2019
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Realtor.org
Increase in Home Values 2005-2018
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07/2019 Housing & Mortgage Market Review
The Probability of Home Prices Being Lower in 2 Years
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62
70
74
65
7469
Bottom Third Income Group Middle Third Income Group Upper Third Income Group
Historically
2019
How Optimistic are Americans regarding FUTURE PRICE APPRECIATION?
Z Report
Optimism Index
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11.3%
20.8%
7.8%6.3%
All Homes Starter Homes Move-Up Homes High-End Homes
CoreLogic
Percentage Share of INVESTOR Purchases
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“Investor buying activity in the U.S. is at record highs. And our records go back confidently, about 20 years…
What’s going on and why? Well, it turns out, it’s not the big institutional guys that are leading the increase in home buying. It’s actually the smaller guys. It’s those that have bought between one and ten properties over this 20 year period, they’re the ones that are really leading the increase in investor home buying.”
Ralph McLaughlinDeputy Chief Economist at CoreLogic
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Investor Purchases by Type of Investor
CoreLogic
48%
61.6%
27.7%
22.7%
24.3%
15.8%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
"Mom & Pop"(1-10)
Professional(11-100)
Institutional(>100)
# of Purchases over last 20 Years
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Mark FlemingChief Economist at First American
“Title agents & real estate professionals indicate home buyers encouraged by unexpectedly lower mortgage rates in 2019 – a tailwind helping to boost demand and inspire existing homeowners to sell their homes.”
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07/2019 NAR
Seller Traffic
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4.54% 4.54%
4.75%
4.41%
3.73%*
3.00%
3.20%
3.40%
3.60%
3.80%
4.00%
4.20%
4.40%
4.60%
4.80%
5.00%
June 2018 September 2018 December 2018 March 2019 July 2019
Freddie Mac
30 Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Rate *The lowest rate
in three years
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ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link
3, 4 FHFA % Change in Price https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Tools/Pages/House-Price-Index-(HPI).aspx
5Case Shiller Y-O-Y Price Changes 20 City Composite
http://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-index
6-8 CoreLogic % Change in Price https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/home-price-index.aspx
9-11 Home Price Expectation Survey https://pulsenomics.com/surveys/#home-price-expectations
12Projected Home Price % Appreciation Going Forward
www.freddiemac.com; www.fanniemae.com; www.nar.realtor/, www.pulsenomics.com; www.mba.org; www.zelmanassociates.com (subscription required); www.wsj.com (subscription required)
13 Increase in Home Values 2005-2018 https://www.nar.realtor/economists-outlook/property-values-by-state-from-2005-2018
14The Probability of Home Prices Being Lower in 2 Years
https://mi.archcapgroup.com/hammr
15, 26 Future Price Appreciation www.zelmanassociates.com (subscription required)
16, 18 % Share of Investors, Type of Investor https://www.corelogic.com/blog/2019/06/special-report-investor-home-buying.aspx
17 Ralph McLaughlin Quote At NAREE Conference
19 Mark Fleming Quotehttps://blog.firstam.com/economics/the-unexpected-surprise-boosting-demand-and-supply-in-2019
20 Seller Traffic https://www.nar.realtor/reports/realtors-confidence-index
21 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rate www.freddiemac.com
23 Danielle Hale Quote https://news.move.com/2019-06-06-Homes-Becoming-More-Affordable-Despite-Rising-Prices
24 Ralph McLaughlin Quote https://themortgagereports.com/50482/home-price-growth-is-slowing-but-maybe-not-for-long
25 Sam Khater Quote https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/node/17016/pdf
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
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“Lower mortgage rates, higher wages and more homes for sale have helped counteract rising home prices, and ultimately, made it so that buyers are able to afford more than last year.”
Danielle Hale realtor.com’s Chief Economist
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Ralph McLaughlinDeputy Chief Economist at CoreLogic
“With mortgage rates flat and inventory picking up, we expect more buyers to take advantage of easing housing market headwinds.”
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Sam KhaterChief Economist at Freddie Mac
“The drop in mortgage rates over the last two months is already being felt in the housing market…In the near-term, we expect the housing market to continue to improve from both a sales and price perspective.”
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“Key metrics tracking existing home sales demand have been on an upward trajectory so far in 2019...This portends positively for our forecast for existing home closings to increase 1% in 2019, despite a 3% decline through the first five months of the year. Our outlook implies 4% growth for the remaining months of the year, predicated on…more supply than last year, the decline in mortgage rates, moderating home price appreciation and improving affordability.”
‘Z’ Report
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ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link
30, 51, 64Days on the Market, Seller Traffic, Buyer Traffic
https://www.nar.realtor/reports/realtors-confidence-index
33 -38, 41, 58, 59
Home Sales (Existing, Pending, New, Total, Distressed Property, Inventory, Supply)
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdfhttp://www.census.gov/newhomesaleshttp://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
31 -33, 44, 52, 53 - 57
Existing Home Sales, YOY Sales, % Change in Sales, Inventory, YOY Inventory, Supply
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
39, 40 Pending Home Sales, YOY Sales, https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/pending-home-sales
43, 44Existing Home Prices, % Change by Price Range
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
45 - 47 Case Shiller Home Price Index http://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-index
48 CoreLogic Home Price Insights http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspx
49 Appraiser Home Value Opinionshttps://www.quickenloans.com/press-room/2019/05/14/average-appraisal-values-make-largest-monthly-jump-in-more-than-four-years-according-to-quicken-loans-study/
61-63 Foot Traffic http://nar.realtor/infographics/foot-traffic
66, 67, 69 Mortgage Rateshttp://www.freddiemac.com/pmmshttp://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/20190515_steady_growth.pagehttps://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/forecast-05-2019-us-economic-outlook-04-30-2019.pdf
72, 73 Mortgage Credit Availability Index https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/newsroom
74-78 FICO Scores, Days to Close, Average DTI http://www.elliemae.com/resources/origination-insight-reports
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
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Average Days on the Market
07/2019 NAR
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Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019
Since January 2014
EXISTINGHome Sales
NAR 7/2019
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-1.1%
0.0%
-3.9%
-1.3%
-3.4%
U.S. Midwest South West
Y-O-Y by Region
EXISTING Home Sales
NAR 7/2019
Northeast
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Existing Home Sales in thousands
Census & NAR
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2017 2018 2019
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Census & NAR
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2017 2018 2019
New Home Sales in thousands
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Jun-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
Census 7/19
New Home Salesannualized in thousands
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2%
5%
22%
14%
8%6%
4%
Under $150K $150-$199K $200-299K $300-$399K $400-$499K $500-$749K Over $750K
New Home Sales% of sales by price range
Census 7/19
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2.92.8
3.13.2 3.2
3.4
3.23.3
3.7
3.93.8
3.7
3.3
3.1
2.9 2.9
2.7
3.0
3.2 3.2
3.63.5
3.33.4
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-18 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May
New Homes Selling Fast(median months from completion to sold)
Census 7/19
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Census & NAR
361 373
500521
597626
575 586
467489
450
415
334
368
472
522
600
January February March April May June July August September October November December
2018 2019
Total Home Sales in thousands
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January… January… January… January… January… January…
100 = Historically Healthy Level
PENDING Home Salessince 2014
NAR 7/2019
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-0.7% -0.5%
-1.2%
0.7%
-3.1%
U.S. Midwest West
Pending Home SalesYear-Over-Year By Region
NAR 7/2019
Northeast
South
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Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019
Percentage ofDistressed Property Sales
35%
January 2012 - Today2%
4%
NAR 7/2019
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Home Prices
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4.8%
6.6%
5.6%
3.6%4.1%
Y-O-Y by Region
EXISTING Home Prices
NAR 7/2019
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-12.4%
0.1%
10.5%11.5%
8.1%
2.3%
$0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+
% -12.4% 0.1% 10.5% 11.5% 8.1% 2.3%
% Change in Salesfrom last year by Price Range
NAR 7/2019
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Year-Over-Year
PRICECHANGES
Case Shiller
S&P Case Shiller 7/2019
Jun 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019
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Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES20 City Composite
Case Shiller
S&P Case Shiller 7/2019
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6.5%
6.2%6.0%
5.7%5.5%
5.3%5.2%
4.1%
3.5%
3.0%
3.7%3.5%
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2019 Feb Mar April
Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES20 City Composite
Case Shiller
S&P Case Shiller 7/2019
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Year-Over-Year % Change in Price
7/2019 CoreLogic
3.6%
5.6%
Current Forecast
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Appraiser Home Value Opinions Compared to Homeowner Estimates
Last 12 Months
-0.25-0.28 -0.28 -0.29 -0.28
-0.36
-0.45-0.47
-0.50
-0.78
-0.87
-0.79
Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
% -0.25 -0.28 -0.28 -0.29 -0.28 -0.36 -0.45 -0.47 -0.5 -0.78 -0.87 -0.79
Quicken Loans 7/19
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HOUSINGINVENTORY
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07/2019 NAR
Seller Traffic
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January 2011
January 2012
January 2013
January 2014
January 2015
January 2016
January 2017
January 2018
January 2019
Months Inventory ofHOMES FOR SALE
2011 - Today
NAR 7/2019
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May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-18 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE
last 2 years
NAR 7/2019
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4.3 4.3 4.3
4.4
4.3
4.0
3.7
3.9
3.6
3.8
4.2
4.3
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
NAR 7/2019
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALELast 12 Months
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January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019
% 7.3 5.3 3.2 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.8 4.5 6.0 5.2 5.0 -0. -0. -0. 2.0 -0. 1.8 0.4 -4. -1. -3. -4. -1. -3. -2. -1. -1. -3. -9. -5. -5. -10 -6. -10 -9. -6. -7. -6. -6. -9. -8. -7. -9. -6. -6. -10 -9. -11 -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. 0.5 0.0 2.7 1.1 2.8 4.2 6.2 4.6 2.9 2.4 1.7 2.7
Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels
NAR 7/2019
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Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels
NAR 7/2019
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HOUSING SUPPLY Year-Over-Year
0.5%0.0%
2.7%
1.1%
2.8%
4.2%
6.2%
4.6%
2.9%2.4%
1.9%2.7%
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
NAR 7/2019
Last 12 Months
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
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5.65.4
5.3
5.75.6
6.06.2
6.36.4
7.2
6.5
7.4
6.5
6.1
5.75.9
6.4
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2018 2019
New Home Inventorymonths supply
Census 7/19
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6.06.2 6.3 6.4
7.2
6.5
7.4
6.5
6.1
5.75.9
6.4
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May
New Home Inventory months supply
Last 12 Months
Census 7/19
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BUYERDEMAND
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Jul 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019
Foot Trafficindicator of future sales
NAR 7/2019
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Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Foot Trafficindicator of future sales
Last 12 Months
NAR 7/2019
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January February March April May June July August September October November December
2018
2019
Foot Trafficindicator of future sales
NAR 7/2019
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07/2019 NAR
Buyer Traffic
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INTERESTRATES
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1/4 2/1 3/1 4/5 5/3 6/7 7/5 8/2 9/6 10/4 11/1 12/6 1/3 1/31 3/7 4/4 5/2 6/6Freddie Mac 7/2019
Mortgage RatesFreddie Mac 30-Year Fixed Rate
3.95%
3.73%
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1/7/
16
2/4
3/3
4/7
5/5
6/2
7/7
8/4
9/1
10/6
11/3
12/1
1/5/
20
…
2/2
3/2
3/3
0
4/27
5/2
5
6/2
2
7/2
0
8/1
7
9/1
4
10/1
2
11/9
12/7
1/4/
20
…
2/1
3/1
4/5
5/4
6/7
7/5
8/2
9/6
10/4
11/1
12/6
1/3
1/3
1
3/7
4/4
5/2
6/6
30-Year FixedRate Mortgages
from Freddie Mac
3.73
3.97
Freddie Mac 7/2019
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Mortgage Rate Projections
7/2019
QuarterFreddie
MacFannie Mae
MBA NARAverage
of All Four
2019 3Q 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.92%
2019 4Q 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.95%
2020 1Q 4.1 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.97%
2020 2Q 4.1 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.0%
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2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
2017Q1
2017Q2
2017Q3
2017Q4
2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
2018Q4
2019Q1
2019Q2
2019Q3
2019Q4
2020Q1
2020Q2
2020Q3
2020Q4
Rate 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.8 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.4 4 4 4 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3
Freddie Mac 7/2019
Mortgage RatesFreddie Mac 30-Year Fixed Rate
- Actual- Projected
20162017 2018
2019
2020
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4.0 4.04.1 4.1
Freddie Mac 7/2019
Where Are They Going?
January 2018 – Today Actual Interest Rates
Mortgage RatesFreddie Mac30-Year Fixed Rate
2019 Q3 2019 Q4
2020 Q22020 Q1
2019 2020
Q3 Q4
Q1 Q2
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Mortgage Credit Availability
YES NO MAYBE
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Apr 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019
MBA 7/2019
Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association
Mortgage Credit Availability
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
June 2004 June 2005June 2006 June 2007 June 2008 June 2009 June 2010 June 2011 June 2012 June 2013 June 2014 June 2015 June 2016 June 2017 June 2018 May 2019
Historic Data for the MORTGAGE CREDIT AVAILABILITY INDEX
(a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association)
MBA 7/2019
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44 44
45 45
46
48
47
49
47
45
43
44
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Average Days To Close A Loan
All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
Last 12 Months
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726
725
724
727 727 727
726
724
726 726
728 728
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
FICO® Score RequirementsLast 12 Months
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0.06% 0.7%
8.7%
18.2%
23.5%
34.7%
14.2%
500-549 550-599 600-649 650-699 700-749 750-799 800+
FICO® Score Distribution
51.16%All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
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Average FICO® Scorefor Closed Purchase Loans
by Loan Type
All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae
728 754
674
709
All Loans Conventional FHA VA
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38 36
44 42
All Loans* Conventional FHA VA
Average Back-End DTIfor Closed Purchase Loans by Loan Type
All Closed Loans as per Ellie Mae