PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... ·...
Transcript of PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... ·...
![Page 1: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Kevin Anderson Tyndall Centre
University of Manchester
2012
With significant input from:
Alice Bows & Maria Sharmina
SCI
… and based on wider Tyndall Manchester analysis
Real Clothes for the Emperor:
facing the challenges of climate change
![Page 2: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Context
The international energy agency’s (IEA) view on climate change
“When I look at this data [CO2 emissions], the trend is perfectly in line with a
temperature increase of 6 degrees Celsius, which would have devastating consequences for the planet.”
“we have 5 years to change the energy system – or have it changed”
Fatih Birol - IEA chief economist
![Page 3: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
INTERNATIONAL
‘To hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees
Celsius, and take action to meet this objective consistent with
science and on the basis of equity’
Copenhagen Accord (2009)
![Page 4: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
How consistent are 2°C & 4°C futures with
emission trends and climate science?
![Page 5: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Bil
lio
n t
on
ne
s C
O2
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
![Page 6: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Bil
lio
n t
on
ne
s C
O2
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
RIO
Eart
h S
um
mit
IPCC e
stablis
hed
First
report
Seco
nd r
eport
RCEP r
eport
(6
0%
by 2
050)
Third r
eport
most
dangero
us
thre
at
Fourt
h r
eport
Copenhagen
Rio
+ 2
0
![Page 7: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Bil
lio
n t
on
ne
s C
O2
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
Rio
+ 2
0
Gro
undw
ork
for
glo
bili
sation
Glo
bili
sation o
f Chin
a &
OECD
![Page 8: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Bil
lio
n t
on
ne
s C
O2
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
Rio
+ 2
0
Glo
bal eco
nom
ic d
ow
ntu
rn
… yet emissions have continued to rise
(~6% in 2010, ~3% 2011 & 12)
![Page 9: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Bil
lio
n t
on
ne
s C
O2
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
Rio
+ 2
0
… so what of future emissions?
![Page 10: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Bil
lio
n t
on
ne
s C
O2
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
Rio
+ 2
0
Energy system design lives (lock-in)
Supply technologies 25-50 year
Large scale infrastructures
Built environment
Aircraft and ships ~30 years
30-100 years
![Page 11: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Bil
lio
n t
on
ne
s C
O2
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
Rio
+ 2
0 Emission assumptions
Economic downturn reverses by 2015
OECD emissions reduce from 2012
China emissions grow as per 5yr plan
Shale gas stabilises fossil fuel prices
India/Africa join globilisation 2020/25
China peaks emissions by 2030
India peaks emissions by 2045
Africa emissions rise to peak in 2060
![Page 12: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Bil
lio
n t
on
ne
s C
O2
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
Rio
+ 2
0
~3GtCO2 for 2000-2050
~5GtCO2 for 2000-2100
… i.e. a 4°C – 6°C rise between 2050 & 2100
![Page 13: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
… outside chance
Year
Bil
lio
n t
on
ne
s C
O2
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
Rio
+ 2
0
![Page 14: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Bil
lio
n t
on
ne
s C
O2
Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)
Rio
+ 2
0
demand technologies: 1-10 years
demand behaviours: now-10 years
Too early
for supply
D
e
m
a
n
d
supply
& demand
![Page 15: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
The Emperor's undergarments
an ‘orthodox’ view on 2°C
![Page 16: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
“… it is possible to restrict warming to 2°C .. with at least a 50% probability …
emissions peaking in 2016 and a rate of emission reduction of 4%.”
AVOID (2009)
“To keep … global average temperature rise close to 2°C … the UK [must] cut
emissions by at least 80% ... the good news is that reductions of that size are
possible without sacrificing the benefits of economic growth and rising prosperity.”
CCC first report p.xiii & 7 (2009)
“… a low stabilisation target of 400ppm CO2e can be achieved at moderate cost …
and a high likelihood of achieving this goal.”
ADAM/Hulme (2010)
![Page 17: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Still looks naked to me
2°C – a alternative take …
![Page 18: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
“… it is difficult to envisage anything other than a planned economic recession
being compatible with stabilisation at or below 650ppmv CO2e.”
Anderson & Bows 2008
“ … the 2015-16 global peaking date (CCC, Stern & ADAM) implies … a
period of prolonged austerity for Annex 1 nations and a rapid transition away
from existing development patterns within non-Annex 1 nations.”
Anderson & Bows 2011
![Page 19: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Do climate ‘scientists’ take any
responsibility for the streaking Emperor?
![Page 20: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
EU
Inconsistencies in 2°C targets
Copenhagen Accord: “hold … below 2°C Celsius”
UK Low Carbon Transition Plan: “must rise no more than 2°C”
EU: “do not exceed … by more than 2°C”
CCC global budget has 56% chance of exceeding 2°C
& the Government adopts a pathway with a 63% of exceeding 2°C
Despite this:
IPCC language: a “very unlikely” to “exceptionally unlikely” chance of exceeding 2°C
i.e. less than a 10% chance of exceeding 2°C
![Page 21: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
… neither can be reconciled with:
‘ To hold the increase in global temperature below 2
degrees Celsius, and take action to meet this objective
consistent with science
Copenhagen Accord (2009)
![Page 22: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
UK’s 80% reduction in CO2e by 2050
EU 60%-80% “ 2050
Bali 50% “ 2050
But:
CO2 stays in atmosphere for 100+ years
2050 reduction unrelated to avoiding dangerous climate change (2°C)
cumulative emissions that matter (i.e. carbon budget)
this fundamentally rewrites the chronology of climate change
- from long term gradual reductions
- to urgent & radical reductions
… moving further away from the science …
headline targets are typically:
![Page 23: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
How does this scientifically-credible approach change the 2°C challenge?
![Page 24: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
the latest emissions data
factor in…
what is the scale of the global ‘problem’ we now face?
![Page 25: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
~ 2.7% p.a. last 100yrs
~ 3.5% p.a. 2000-2007
~ 5.9% 2009-2010
~ 3.2 % 2010-2011
(A1FI has mean growth of 2.2% p.a. to 2020)
Things are getting worse!
Global CO2 emission trends?
![Page 26: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
What does:
this failure to reduce emissions & the latest science on cumulative emissions
Say about a 2°C emissions reduction pathway?
![Page 27: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
early emissions peak = lower emissions reduction/year
![Page 28: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Year
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Em
issio
ns o
f g
ree
nh
ou
se
ga
se
s (
GtC
O2e
)
0
20
40
60
80
Year
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Em
issio
ns o
f g
ree
nh
ou
se
ga
se
s (
GtC
O2e
)
0
20
40
60
80
Year
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Em
issio
ns o
f g
ree
nh
ou
se
ga
se
s (
GtC
O2e
)
0
20
40
60
80
Low DL
Low DH
Medium DL
Medium DH
High DL
High DH
2015 peak 2020 peak 2025 peak
(Anderson & Bows. 2008 Philosophical Transactions A of the Royal Society. 366. pp.3863-3882)
early emissions peak = lower emissions reduction/year Total greenhouse gas emission pathways AR4 – 450ppmv CO2e stabilisation cumulative emission range
![Page 29: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Year
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Em
issi
ons
of C
O2
alon
e (G
tCO
2)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60 2015 peak Medium DL
2015 peak High DL
2015 peak High DH
2020 peak High DL
2020 peak High DH
Even then total
decarbonisation by
~2035-45 necessary
… and for energy emissions?
(with 2020 peak)
13 of 18 scenarios
‘impossible’
10-20% annual reductions – even for a high probability of
exceeding 2°C
Globally: no
emission space for
coal, gas, or shale –
even with CCS!
![Page 30: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
A fair deal for non-OECD (non-Annex 1)
… what’s left for us (OECD/Annex 1) ?
![Page 31: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Anderson-Bows: (CO2 only) (Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011
~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)
![Page 32: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Growth 3.5% p.a
Peak 2025
Reduction 7% p.a.
(2x Stern!)
Anderson-Bows: (CO2 only) (Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011
~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)
![Page 33: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Anderson-Bows: (CO2 only) (Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011
~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)
![Page 34: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Peak ~2010
Reduction ∞% p.a.
Anderson-Bows: (CO2 only) (Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions – Jan 2011
~40% chance of exceeding 2°C)
![Page 35: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
How do two such fundamentally different
interpretations of the challenge arise
from the same science?
![Page 36: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
… thinking about this graphically
![Page 37: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
available carbon
budget
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issio
ns
![Page 38: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
available carbon
budget
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issio
ns
What are current emissions?
![Page 39: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issio
ns
What growth rate till the peak?
What are current emissions?
![Page 40: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issio
ns
When do emissions peak?
What growth rate till the peak?
What are current emissions?
![Page 41: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issio
ns
What reductions are ‘viable’?
When do emissions peak?
What growth rate till the peak?
What are current emissions?
![Page 42: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issio
ns
What emissions floor?
What reductions are ‘viable’?
When do emissions peak?
What growth rate till the peak?
What are current emissions?
![Page 43: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issio
ns
What emissions floor?
What reductions are ‘viable’?
When do emissions peak?
What growth rate till the peak?
Are negative emissions assumed?
What are current emissions?
![Page 44: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issio
ns
What emissions floor?
What reductions are ‘viable’?
When do emissions peak?
What growth rate till the peak?
What emission budget for 2°C?
Are negative emissions assumed?
What are current emissions?
![Page 45: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
available carbon
budget
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issio
ns
What are current emissions?
STERN report 2006
2000-2006 CO2e growth - 0.95% p.a.
Real growth - 2.4% p.a.
error ~250%
Would change fundamentally subsequent analysis
Continued silence from our research community
![Page 46: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Stern vs. reality
2020 2010 2015
GtC
O2e
2005
60
40
20
2000
0.95% p.a.
CO2e growth
![Page 47: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
2020 2010 2015
GtC
O2e
2005
60
40
20
2000
0.95% p.a.
CO2e growth
Stern vs. reality extrapolating different growth rates
2.4% p.a.
CO2e growth
![Page 48: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issio
ns
What growth rate till the peak?
What are current emissions?
![Page 49: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issio
ns
What growth rate till the peak?
What are current emissions?
Typically 1-2% p.a., i.e. far below recent trend rates &
despite continued rapid growth of China & India
![Page 50: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issio
ns
When do emissions peak?
What growth rate till the peak?
What are current emissions?
![Page 51: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issio
ns
When do emissions peak?
What growth rate till the peak?
What are current emissions?
GLOBAL PEAK 2014 - 2016
Stern (2006)
Elzen et al (2006)
CCC (2008) [China & India ~2017]
[ADAM – 2009]*
AVOID (2010)
van Vuuren (2010)
![Page 52: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issio
ns
When do emissions peak?
What growth rate till the peak?
What are current emissions?
PEAK 2010
Baer et al (2006)
US CCSP (2007)
Ackerman (2009)
[Hulme et al (2010)]*
![Page 53: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issio
ns
When do emissions peak?
What growth rate till the peak?
What are current emissions?
PEAK 2005
Hansen et al. (2008)
Nordhaus (2010)
![Page 54: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issio
ns
What reductions are ‘viable’?
When do emissions peak?
What growth rate till the peak?
What are current emissions?
Typically 2-4%, occasionally 5%. Constrained to what is
‘economists’ envisage compatible with economic growth
![Page 55: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issio
ns
What emissions floor?
What reductions are ‘viable’?
When do emissions peak?
What growth rate till the peak?
What are current emissions?
Food-related emissions
Anderson (2008) ~7.5 GtCO2e
CCC (2008) ~ 6 GtCO2e
Loulou (2009) ~ 11.5 GtCO2e
AVOID (2010) ~ 0.3 - 3.4GtCO2e
(often not considered in scenarios)
![Page 56: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issio
ns
What emissions floor?
What reductions are ‘viable’?
When do emissions peak?
What growth rate till the peak?
Are negative emissions assumed?
What are current emissions?
Increasingly used
ADAM/Hulme (2009/10)
van Vurren et al (2010)
One in three major IAM-based scenarios (Clarke et al 2009)
Ubiquitous in low carbon scenarios with no-or-little overshoot
![Page 57: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issio
ns
What emissions floor?
What reductions are ‘viable’?
When do emissions peak?
What growth rate till the peak?
What emission budget for 2°C?
Are negative emissions assumed?
What are current emissions?
Hadley submissions:
to AR4 for 450ppmv CO2e stabilisation ~1400GtCO2e (2006/7)
to CCC for 63% chance of exceeding 2C ~ 2900Gt CO2e (2008)
![Page 58: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
An
nu
al C
O2e
em
issio
ns
What emissions floor?
What reductions are ‘viable’?
When do emissions peak?
What growth rate till the peak?
What emission budget for 2°C?
Are negative emissions assumed?
What are current emissions?
What Annex 1/non-Annex 1 split?
![Page 59: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
What about Annex 1 non-Annex 1 split
US CCSP (2007)
used “meaningful and plausible” reference scenarios from a
‘prospectus of highly regarded Integrated Assessment Models’
- in which Non-Annex 1 CO2 exceeded Annex 1 CO2 in:
MiniCAM (Maryland) 2013
IGSM (Stanford) 2021
MERGE (MIT) 2023
Actual crossover 2006
UK CCC (2009/11)
UK carbon budgets premised on “feasible” analysis
Global emissions peak 2016
Annex 1 (inc. UK) peak 2007-10
Non-Annex 1 peak ~2018 (China & India ~2017)
“meaningful and plausible”
“feasible”
![Page 60: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
EU
Geoengineering in
Integrated Assessment Models (based on Clarke et al - 2009)
‘All’ low carbon scenarios without significant overshoot use Bio-CCS
to give negative emissions
No large scale CCS power stations currently exist
Major issues of food & biodiversity with Biomass production
Every Bio-CCS scenario has large scale Coal-CCS
Major constraints on storage capacity for coal-CCS
– so Bio CCS?
![Page 61: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
EU
Nuclear powerstations in
Integrated Assessment Models (based on Clarke et al - 2009)
‘All’ but one IAM-based scenarios had large nuclear supply
U235 constraints for such large nuclear expansion
Fast breeder reactors could be used without fuel supply scarcity
… but have major expense and other problems
Thorium may have potential – but still experimental at best
![Page 62: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
EU
… but scenarios are supposed to
explore plausible futures
EU
… rather than repeat hard-wired runs
from the same assumptions
![Page 63: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
Recent historical emissions sometimes ‘mistaken’ or ‘massaged’
Short-term emission growth seriously down played
Peak year choice ‘Machiavellian’ & dangerously misleading
Reduction rate universally dictated by economists
Geoengineering widespread in low carbon scenarios
Annex 1/non-Annex 1 emissions split neglected or hidden
Assumptions about ‘Big’ technology naively optimistic
(‘Net’ Costs meaningless with non-marginal mitigation & adaptation)
Collectively – they have a magician’s view of time & a linear view of problems ?
… with few exceptions, these include:
![Page 64: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
2°C – a political & scientific creed?
![Page 65: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
Senior political scientist (2010)
“Too much is invested in 2°C for us to say its not possible – it
would undermine all that’s been achieved
It’ll give a sense of hopelessness – we may as well just give in
Are you suggesting we have to lie about our research findings?
Well, perhaps just not be so honest – more dishonest …”
![Page 66: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
Senior Government Advisor
(2010)
“We can’t tell them (ministers & politicians) it’s impossible
We can say it’s a stretch and ambitious – but that, with
political will, 2°C is still a feasible target”
![Page 67: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
DECC SoS (2009)
- day before attending Copenhagen
“Our position is challenging enough, I can’t go with the message
that 2°C is impossible – it’s what we’ve all worked towards”
![Page 68: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
So, where does this leave us?
![Page 69: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
If this all looks too difficult
… what about a 4°C future?
![Page 70: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
For 4°C & emissions peaking by 2020 a
~ 3.5% p.a. reduction in CO2 from energy is necessary
... & such a reduction rate is achievable
so is aiming for 4°C more realistic?
![Page 71: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
For 4°C global mean surface temperature
5°C - 6°C global land mean
… & increase °C on the hottest days of:
6°C - 8°C in China
8°C - 10°C in Central Europe
10°C -12°C in New York
In low latitudes 4°C gives
up to 40% reduction in maize & rice
as population heads towards 9 billion by 2050
![Page 72: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
There is a widespread view that a 4°C future is incompatible
with an organised global community, is likely to be beyond
‘adaptation’, is devastating to the majority of eco-systems &
has a high probability of not being stable (i.e. 4°C would be an
interim temperature on the way to a much higher equilibrium level).
Consequently …
4°C should be avoided at ‘all’ costs
![Page 73: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
Have we got the agency to achieve the
unprecedented reductions rates linked to an outside
chance of 2°C ?
Before despairing …
![Page 74: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
10% reduction in emissions year on year
40% reduction by 2015
70% 2020
90+% 2030
To put some numbers on this
non-marginal challenge for energy
Impossible?
… is living with a 4°C global temperature rise by 2050-70 less impossible?
![Page 75: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
AGENCY
Equity – a message of hope – perhaps?
Technology – how far, how fast & how soon?
![Page 76: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
Little chance of changing polices aimed at 7 billion
… but how many people need to make the necessary changes?
![Page 77: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
Pareto’s 80:20 rule
80% of something relates to … 20% of those involved
~50% of emissions from ~1% of population
… as a guide 40-60% emissions from 1-5% population
run this 3 times
~80% of emissions from ~20% of population
![Page 78: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
- who’s in the 1-5%?
Climate scientists
Climate journalists & pontificators
OECD (& other) academics
Anyone who gets on a plane
For the UK anyone earning over £30k
![Page 79: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)
Are we (principally Annex 1) sufficiently concerned to
… make or have enforced substantial personal
sacrifices/changes to our lifestyles
NOW ?
![Page 80: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/80.jpg)
Technical AGENCY – another message of hope
![Page 81: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/81.jpg)
Fuel Production, Extraction &Transport Powerstation Transmission
Electricity Consumption
Light,
Refrign
10 50 54 120 133
The Electricity system
Demand opportunities dwarf those from supply in short-term
![Page 82: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/82.jpg)
Car efficiency (without rebound)
UK mean car emissions ~175g/km (new ~150g/km)
EU 2015 plan 130g/km (fleet mean with buy out)
2008 BMW 109g/km, VW, 85-99g/km; 1998 Audi A2 ~ 75g/km
~8 year penetration of new cars … ~90% of vehicle-km
~40-50% CO2 reduction by 2020 with no new technology
Reverse recent trends in occupancy ~60-70% by 2020
![Page 83: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/83.jpg)
Link between cumulative emissions & temp’ is broadly correct
Non-Annex 1 nations peak emissions by 2025/30
There are rapid reductions in deforestation emissions
Food emissions halve from today’s values by 2050
No ‘discontinuities’ (tipping points) occur
& Stern/CCC/IEA’s “feasible” reductions of 3-4% p.a. is achieved
Uncomfortable implications of conservative
assumptions
2°C stabilisation is virtually impossible
4°C by 2050-2070 looks ‘likely’ (could be earlier & on the way to 6°C+)
If …
![Page 84: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/84.jpg)
But “… this is not a message of futility, but a wake-up call of
where our rose-tinted spectacles have brought us. Real
hope, if it is to arise at all, will do so from a bare
assessment of the scale of the challenge we now face.”
Anderson & Bows.
Beyond ‘dangerous climate change
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society
Jan 2011
![Page 85: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/85.jpg)
… a final message of hope ..
“at every level the greatest obstacle to
transforming the world is that we lack the
clarity and imagination to conceive that it
could be different.”
Roberto Unger
![Page 86: PowerPoint Presentationkevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Cabot-Seminar... · Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Nicola Sheard Created Date: 11/7/2012 4:00:48](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022050513/5f9d3ff4af99862db3099692/html5/thumbnails/86.jpg)
Kevin Anderson Tyndall Centre
University of Manchester
2012
With significant input from:
Alice Bows & Maria Sharmina
SCI
… and based on wider Tyndall Manchester analysis
Real Clothes for the Emperor:
facing the challenges of climate change