Power of Observation-What Purchasers Can Learn From Darwin-Final--Tanel-Session Code-DJ 98th ISM...

8/11/2019 Power of Observation-What Purchasers Can Learn From Darwin-Final--Tanel-Session Code-DJ 98th ISM Conference

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Session Code: DJ

Power of Observation: What

Purchasers Can Learn From Darwin

Thomas L. Tanel, C.P.M., CISCMPresident & CEO

CATTAN Services Group, Inc.

Monday, April 29, 2013


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Power of Observation:

What Purchasers CanLearn From Darwin

Session Code-DJ

ISMs 98thAnnual International Supply

Management Conference

April 29, 2013 Grapevine, Texas

Thomas L. Tanel, C.P.M., CTL, CCA, CISCM ,

CATTAN Services Group, Inc.College Station, TX

[email protected]

Created by CATTAN Services Group, Inc. 2009


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The Power of A Theory and Darwins

ObservationsPower of a theory

=

That which it explains

That which it needs to

assume in order to dothe explaining


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Darwin and the Power of Observation

Here was a man who applied his powers ofobservationand rigorous testing to everything helooked at in great detail, from the movements in

plants and barnacles, to how pigeons navigate, to theimportance of earthworms in soil health and ecology.

The essence of Darwinism is nothing more than, that

simple-minded observation, as near as we can tell.


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Darwin and the Power of Observation

What Darwin did formost of his careerwas observe.

Only later on did hecome up with atheory to explain his

observations.


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Five Darwinian Suggestions for

Improving Your Power of Observation

Spend time in meetings carefully observing

people talking

Spend time in meetings watching how othersreact to those speaking

Find ways to test your observation hypotheses

Find ways to test your hypotheses by askingquestions

Watch higher ups carefully


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Darwin and Survival of the Fittest

It is so simple that in the guise of survival ofthe fittest (the renaming that Darwin adoptedfrom Herbert Spencer): the fittest are defined asthose that survive, so the catchphrase amounts tothose that survive, survive.

But Darwin didnt define the fittest as those thatsurvive. His fittest were those endowed withthe best equipmentto survive, and that makes allthe difference.

As Darwin observed(and he himself was atpains to point out), natural selection is all aboutdifferential survival within species, not betweenthem.


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What Do You See?

Which image?1. An old lady

2. A youngwoman

3. A man with a

big brownmustache


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What Do You See?

Which image?1. Old man and

woman2. Two men in

sombreros

3. A woman inthe doorway

4. A cup

5. All 4 images


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Observations

An observationis an experience perceived

through one or more senses.

Observations are using one or more of the five

sensesto gather information.

Observation is stating a given factthat has

nothing to do with your opinion.

A noting and recording of. FACTS!!!

Example: There is one instructor in the room.


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What Do You Observe?

A

Rabbit

or aDuck?


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The Power of Observation

Charles Kettering, the famous inventor, once said: A problemwell stated is a problem half solved.

This implies that a good portion of problem solving should be

devoted to a thorough understanding of whats going on[observation] before any corrective action steps are taken.

In many cases, too much time is spent on proposing varioussolutions before the problem has been correctly defined.

Observationis a powerful technique that can be used to helpunderstand problems. Often, clues about how to solve a

problem can come from simply observingthe process.


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What Do You Observe?

A Womanat a

Vanityor a

Skull?


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Tips for Making Observations

Use all of your senses (sight,hearing, touch, and smell) to makequalitative observations.

Review your observationsto be surethey are accurate and objective.

Whenever possible, count or usemeasurement devices to makequantitative observations. Be sureto include units of measure with

them. Check your observationsto be sure

that they are statements aboutinformation gained through yoursenses, not explanations of what you

observed.


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Inferences

An inferenceis an explanation or interpretationof anobservation

To infer means to construct a linkbetween what is

observeddirectly and what is already known from

past experience

An inference isNOTa guesssince a guess is an

opinion formed from little or no evidence.

A recording of data or an event that you witness orstudya CONCLUSION drawn.

Example: When you entered the room, you most

likely inferred that the individual in the front of the

room is the instructor.


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The Inference Formula


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Observation versus Inference Examples

OBSERVATION INFERENCE

The brass knob on that door isnot bright and shiny.

The office is not used often.

There is a spot in my frontyard where grass does notgrow.

Someone may have spilled atoxic substance there.

I see that iodine turns purplewhen I put it on a potato chip

The chip has starch in it.

Through the window I see theflag waving

It must be windy out.

The fishes are floating on topof the tank

Perhaps no one fed the fish


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Steps in Inferring

1. Make as many observationsabout the object or event aspossible.

2. Recall from your experiencesas much relevant informationabout the object or event and integrate that information withwhat you observe.

3. Stateyour inference in such a way that clearly distinguishes itfrom other kinds of statements (observation or prediction):

From what I observe I infer that From those observations it can be inferred that

The evidence suggests that .. may have happened.

What I observe may have been caused by .

A possible explanation for what I see is that .


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Look at these two sets of

animal tracks.

List 3 OBSERVATIONS

Make 2 INFERENCES


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Observation and Inference ActivitySelf-Check 1

Observations Inferences

One set of prints is smaller than

the other

One animal is smaller than the other

The small and large prints areheaded in the same direction

Both are walking toward something

There are three toes for eachprint

Both animals are birds

The small and large prints get

closer to each other

The large animal is pursuing the

small animal

Both are walking in a gully

The larger prints get fartherapart

The larger bird is going downhill

The larger bird is running

The larger bird is stepping over

stones


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Now what do you think?

Make 2 OBSERVATIONS

Make an INFERENCE


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The prints converge The larger animal catches and either

eats or carries off the smaller animalThe animals were there at differenttimes

Both animals discovered food in thesame place

The prints become allmixed up

The animals were milling about

The animals were fighting

The smallerfootprints get furtherapart

The smaller animal begins to run


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Now what do you think?

Make an OBSERVATION

Make 2 INFERENCES


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The small tracks stop The larger animal ate the smaller one

The smaller animal flew away

The snow at this point become crustyand the smaller animal was not heavyenough to make tracks

The large prints areclose together

The large animal was walking ratherthan running


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Thin-Slicing and the Power of

ObservationBoth "thin-slicing" and using the power of

observation, are concerned with the challengeof identifying and focusing on only the mostsignificant information.


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Marcus Aurelius on Observation

Observe constantly that all thingstake place by change, and accustom thyself

to consider that the nature of the Universeloves nothing so much as to change thethings which are, and to make new things

like them.


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Observation in the Land of the Blind

In the land of the

blind the one eyed

man is king.

The thing is, the

saying isn't about how

many eyes you've got,or how good they are,

it's about how well

you use them.


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Lets Test Your Observation Power:OuchOut of the Ring

Can you delineate just one perfect square (the ring) by connecting

all 8 dots together?


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Lets Test Your Observation Power:OuchOut of the Ring

Can you delineate just one perfect square (the ring) by connecting

all 8 dots together?


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Observation in the Land of the Blind:Wake Up and Take Notice

So the ability to be blind to most of

what we see and deaf to most of

what we hear is quite useful. It

helps us get by in life.

Whatever our role we tend to be so

busy just getting along that we

rarely make the time to sit up and

reall y take notice.

We are in the habit of not looking,

of not hearing, and of not noticing.


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Lets Test Your Observation Power:Bermuda Triangle

Read attentively the article of the journal below and detect any incongruity!


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Practice Observation In the

Land of the Blind Pierre Wack, the influential scenario

planner used to refer to himself as theeyes of the wolf at the front of the packat Royal/Dutch Shell.

His view was that: "Scenarios help us tounderstand today better by imaginingtomorrow, increasing the breadth ofvision and enabling us to spot change

earlier Effective future thinkingbrings a reduction in the level of crisis

management and improvesmanagement capability, particularlychange management."

Observationis probably

the most succinctdescription there is of the

practice of scenario

planning.


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Lets Test Your Observation Power:Just Red

How many "red" words are in the sentence below?

First of all, I would redefine theconcept of thegreensynthesis, be

causeI don't want to reduce this

to an obviousstatement andswear that black is white.


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Lets Test Your Observation Power:Just Red

How many "red" words are in the sentence below?

First of all, I wouldred

efine the

concept of thegreensynthesis, be

causeI don't want to reduce this

to an obviousstatement andswear that black is white.


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Lets Test Your Observation Power:Coca Cola

Read quickly the text in the small poster below.

Do you notice something strange?


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Lets Test Your Observation Power:Ants Reckoning

At first glance, guess which color ants are the

most numerous?


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Lets Test Your Observation Power:Comparing Patterns


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Lets Test Your Observation Power:

ComparingPatterns

Background Texture


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Observation and Seeing:

Whats Invisible?

As Jonathan Swift said: vision isthe art of seeing things invisibleto others.

And why does so much ofwhat's in front of us seeminvisible?

Well, perhaps becausepeople

only see what they are preparedto see(Ralph Waldo Emerson),and because what we seedepends mainly on what we look

for (John Lubbock).


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Have You Become Truly Observant?Find the Arrow on the FedEx Truck


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Have You Become Truly Observant?Find The Hidden Tiger


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Have You Become Truly Observant?How Many Human Faces Can You See?


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How Many Human Faces Did You See?Look at the Red Dots on Nose


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Techniques to Become Truly

Observant

Become hyper-observant of the more discreet elementsof your everyday environment

Look for patterns amidst your everyday routines

Regard anything out of ordinary patterns as possibly arisk or intentional distraction

Focus on incongruent people, equipment, processes,methods, material flow, etc.

Look beyond what you are shown or told, and

Do not tune out familiar surroundings---look deeperfor things that you may have missed

H Y B T l Ob ?
http://assets.hulu.com/shows/key_art_i_spy.jpghttp://assets.hulu.com/shows/key_art_i_spy.jpg


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Have You Become Truly Observant?

Take a Good Look at this Picture

Well, Have You Really?!?


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Do You Think Like Sherlock Holmes?

To both see and observe:

Therein lies the Sherlock Holmes secret.

The confluence of seeing and observingis central to the concept of mindfulness:

A mental alertness that takes in the present

moment to the fullest, andAble to concentrate on its immediate

landscape and free itself of any distractions.


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How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes

Mindfulness

Inattentional

Blindness

Selective

Looking

Cognitive

Vigilance


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Have You Become Like Holmes?Are These Dots Moving?

Essentially, Holmess message is one of focus.


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Distinguishing Between Facts

and Inferences

Statement of Fact Statement of Inference

Made after observation orexperience

Made anytime---before, during orafter observation

Confined to what one observes;cannot be made about the future

Goes beyond what one observes;may concern the past, present orfuture

Limited number possible Unlimited number possible

High probability, not certainty as

perception depends on personsinterpretive processes

Represents some degree of

probability

Tends to bring people togetherand further agreement

Tends to create distance betweenpeople and more likely to causedisagreement


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Distinguishing Between Facts and Inferences

Read the story that follows carefully. When you are finished, decide how you

would classify the statements that follow on the next slide.Brown, a section supervisor, called to an employee who was coming

through the door twelve minutes after starting time. Brown asked the

employee to come into his office, and said: Iam glad to see that you were

able to make it in today despite the transportation problems. I have been

thinking about talking to you concerning your many latenesses andabsences. As you know, we have specific rules here that say that an

employee must call in if he or she expects to be more than ten minutes

late. I have to begin to take some corrective steps when an employee is

late more than three times in any one month. I know that getting your

two children to school sometimes makes it difficult for you to come in on

time, but still I must ask you to do something to avoid this situation in the

future. The rules provide for a written warning and then suspension

before dismissal. If you continue to be absent or late, I will have to follow

these rules, much as I regret to do it. Please help me avoid such

unpleasantness.


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Fact or Inference?a. The employee referred to in the story was late that day.

b. The employee is a woman.

c. There were transportation problems affecting the employee that day.

d. The rules of the company call for a warning after three or more latenesses in

one month.

e. Brown should give a written warning this time or at the employees next lateness

if company rules are to be complied with.

f. The employee in the story has two children.

g. The employee sometimes takes the two children to school in the morning.

When you have checked your choices above, think of one additional fact from the

story________________________________________________________________.

Creativity and Innovation


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Creativity and Innovation

In any organization today, sooner or later the words

"innovation" and "creativity" will come up.

Few leaders truly know how to foster creativity and

innovation in their workplace.

And even fewer actually do it!!!

"The way forward is paradoxically not to look ahead,but to look around [observation],"explains John Sealy

Brown, the director of the Palo Alto Research Center

(PARC) for Xerox.


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Critical Thinking

i i l d d i


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Einstein on Knowledge and Experience:Seeing Things Before They Happen

Albert Einstein once said, The only source of

knowledge is experience.

Experience allows us to use both our

education and our observationsto gain a

greater understanding and become a morevaluable resource for others.

ll d i hi ki


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H.G. Wells on Inductive Thinking:Seeing Things Before They Happen

H.G. Wells argues that inductive thinking allows one tobuild up an understanding of the broad outlines of futurehistory by the comparison and criticism of suggestive

facts.

Wells suggests using existing or researched information toinfer a future state of affairs.

He proposes that such inferences can be reasonablyaccurate.

U i Ob i S O i i


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Using Observation to See Opportunities

and Problems Before They Happen

Trouble Down the Highway

Th B fi f E h d


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The Benefits of Enhanced

Darwinian Observation Skills

Better understanding of colleagues, suppliers, bosses,

service providers, and allied functions

Improved decision making skills

Recognizing and emulating 'success behavior'

Learning the best ways to help people

Learning the best ways to influence people

Finding new ways to solve persistent problems

Seeing opportunities and problems before they happen

Louis Pasteur gave us this aphorism: In the field of observation, chance favors only the prepared mind.


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Go to The Source for Better Decisions:

Seeing Things Before They Happen Make it routine to go to as many

individuals directly influenced bythe issue so you can see firsthandand fully understand the subtledetails, realties of a situation andtheir histories of the future.

Keep informed about the future and

new trends.

Get out and visit your supply chainboth internally and externally---observe.

There is no phenomena unless

it is an observedphenomena.

John Wheeler

Observation and the Periphery:


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Observation and the Periphery:

Seeing Things Before They Happen

Valuing the peripheryrequires a seismic shift inorganizational thinking.

Instead of considering any deviation from standard operating

procedure to be irrelevant, excessive or unnecessarilyexpensive, organizations must begin to viewsuch variances asportals to the future.

With wide eyes and an open mind, they must actively and

systematically extend the range of observationoutward,beyond the comfort of the known.

Those who do not pay attention to the peripheryare soonovercome by the waves of change.

B i Fit t Rid th W f Ch


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Being Fit to Ride the Waves of Change:

Seeing Things Before They Happen

Surfs up! Its time to grab the board, hit the water, and ride those waves.


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Thank You !

Power of Observation-What Purchasers Can Learn From Darwin-Final--Tanel-Session Code-DJ 98th ISM...

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