Power Electronics Becoming Much More Important
23
Dr Peter Harrop, Chairman [email protected] www.idtechex.com Power Electronics Becoming Much More Important Batteries and moving mechanical parts % Power electronics including energy harvesting %
Transcript of Power Electronics Becoming Much More Important
Dr Peter Harrop, Chairman
www.idtechex.com
Power Electronics Becoming Much More Important
Batteries and moving mechanical parts %
Power electronics including energy harvesting %
This presentation shares some of the research for the IDTechEx report,
“Power Electronics for Electric Vehicles 2017-2027”
Why existing power electronics is becoming more complex and proliferating in functions
Progress to pure electric vehicles with dynamic inductive charging then energy independence
Market forecasts
Power Electronics Becoming Much More Important
New end game: Energy Independent Vehicles EIV – no, not always feeble, not always sun, sometimes energy positive!
Plug in
hybrid
with fuel
cell or
gas
turbine
range
extender
and long
electric
range
Pure
electric
short
range
Pure
electric
medium
range
slow
charging
Pure
electric
medium
range
fast
charging
Pure
electric
long
range
fast
charging
Range is
for a
often longer than
conventional car
Mild ICE
hybrid
with little
or no
electric
range
Plug in
ICE
hybrid
with
limited
electric
range
Plug in
hybrid
with fuel
cell or
gas
turbine
range
extender
and long
electric
range
Pure
electric
short
range
Pure
electric
medium
range
slow
charging
Pure
electric
medium
range
fast
charging
Pure
electric
long
range
fast
charging
Range is
for a
often longer than
conventional car
Mild ICE
hybrid
with little
or no
electric
range
Plug in
ICE
hybrid
with
limited
electric
range
Pure electric contactless
top up charging eg
dynamicinductive
Energy positive EIV
HYBRIDS TREND TO PURE ELECTRIC
PURE ELECTRIC TRENDS TO NON STOP CHARGE
Today batteries are up to 60% of cost of car, bus, boat, plane
Much work to reduce amount of battery to save cost, weight, space and improve safety and life.
Pure electric vehicles are the end game – land, water, air
Two out of the first 50 Boeing 787 Dreamliners had lithium-ion battery
related fires
Chinese taxi with Li-ion battery with so-called safe LFP cathode
Ongoing lithium-ion fires and explosions
The two pilots died when this UPS plane burned due to Li-ion battery
cargo.
Tesla. One fire was due to penetration.
Hoverboards
Breaking the rules of manufacturing. There is so much competition in lithium-ion batteries and so much potential, the industry is now cutting corners. In manufacturing you either change your product in most respects or you scale up manufacturing one hundredfold based on a stable design. This industry is doing both at the same time and for some it will end in tears. For example, accelerated life tests and past production parameters can become meaningless and too rapid scaleup can reveal many problems of reproduceability, yield and so on. There may be some more nasty explosions and fires made even more likely because the industry is moving to larger batteries with more to go wrong. IDTechEx believes that the biggest impact will be one of the leaders going out of production for some time as it sorts its processes out. That can pull down the market value because under ten of the 500 manufacturers can make safe, affordable, suitable large Li-ion batteries in the quantities and to the timescales required. Any problems can lead to more serious consideration of replacement or elimination in product designs.
Next: Li-ion failures and production delays due to cutting corners
Silicon in anode
combined with higher
energy cathodePotentially
unstable, difficult technology being
adopted by all majors 2017-9
Higher energy density
Aqueous or non-
flammable organic
electrolyte and new formats
2018 onwards
Less toxic non- flammable, higher energy density
No leakage, longer life, non- flammable, maybe suitable for structural electronics
Solid state electrolyte organic or inorganic
2020 onwards
See the IDTechEx reports, “Structural Electronics 2015-2025”, “Lithium-ion Batteries 2018-2028”.
Battery can be 60% of cost so there is a trend to top-up charging: battery one fifth of the size/ cost – room for more freight/ passengers. Result happiness
See IDTechEx report, “Wireless Charging 2017-2027: Phones, Cars etc.”
Advanced top-up charging: dynamic wireless charging from road This demonstration at KAIST University
Korea has operated for many years providing campus transport. It has a small battery and could operate without a battery
Next generation green energy at the road for top up charging requires extra power electronics on vehicle
Dynamic charging will have little or no intermittency when its green power is multiply sourced: roadside wind turbines, solar sound barriers and roads and Airborne Wind Energy (tethered kites, multicopters)
Some EVs can already be bought without battery for daylight-only travel Battery = zero% so what takes over?
EIV cars demonstrated 2016, on sale 2020 GaAs
80 km/day
The company says the current solar energy conversion rate of its high-end cells is 31.6%. This is expected to go up to 38% in 2020 and 42% in 2025Licensed to Audi 2017
Research on TENG in tires to produce significant power for battery charging – 100’s of watts? TENG on a toy car lit up LEDs at mW. University of Wisconsin Madison
Harvesting technologies now and in future for on-road vehicles
Wide bandgap semiconductors, supercapacitors etc take more % share by reducing need for extra battery and water cooling
Source Transphorm, IDTechEx
More mature
More scalable
1. Replace the engine with a smaller downspeededone – up to 60% downsized and simplified
2. Replace the alternator with a reversing electric machine that can boost the engine when needed (“torque assist”) and briefly power the car on its own for take off and creeping and charge the two batteries. This may be in the engine, transmission or axle. Makes it an electric vehicle – hybrid!
3. Two way DC DC converter lets the above machine charge on demand both the existing 12V battery and an added 48V battery
4. Add a large 48V battery such as a lithium-ion battery that has higher energy density and is a bit bigger than the existing lead acid battery but lighter. It can power the car along on its own for brief intervals
48V mild hybrid adds complexity: provides and stores four times as much electricity
Add a high capacity high
power density 48V battery eg Li-ion or advanced lead-acid
For now, keep the 12V PbAbattery for
safety critical operations and
ones too expensive to
convert
2 way DC-DC
inverter
RESULT
Car accepts, provides and stores four times as much electricity to power devices that further reduce emissions and improve performance and comfort. It also becomes possible to harvest more energy from inside and outside the car and handle that new electricity created from movement, sun, heat etc, including surges
Motor controller loosely called
+ Dynamic catenary or inductive charge,
Energy harvesting tires and
suspension
Wind turbine
Focus heat/ cool
Vectored traction and
steering
+ Photovoltaics
V2Grid
V2House
Active suspension
More clients
Autonomy VMS
+ Faster
on-board charger
More motors= more
controllers/ more complex
Motor controller
BMS
Charger
Power electronics eventually becomes more important than batteries evenin pure electric vehicles
1. Increased complexity of existing forms2. Proliferation of existing forms3. New forms
More danger so better Battery
Management System
Faster More
currentHigher V
Higher voltage –
safety issues
Motor controller loosely called
One becomes 2-4 for
efficiency, performance
Many more of them such as extending solar when parked
Proliferation
Solar bodywork says
Tesla
Triboelectric tires
Contactless chargingV2G
V2HUniversal charging
interface
Increased complexity
Added functions
Wind turbine erects when
parked
Vectored traction & steering
Focussed heating and cooling
Smart windows will make electricity from daylight powering displays inside and out and powering electric darkening for privacy and climate control
Autonomous taxi bus will have extra power electronics
2017 2028 2038
MicroEV/ quadricycle 2 17
Bike, scooter, motorbike 10 23
Driverless taxi-bus - 150
Car 21 156
Bus and delivery truck 89 233
TOTAL 122 579
Battery 50% = 122 45% = 261 35%
Power electronics, motors, energy harvesting 20% = 26 40% = 232 50%
Pure electric on-road vehicle market $ billion
World’s largest selection of market/ technical reports on electric vehicles and their enabling technologies – aerospace, marine and automotive
EVs, hybrid and pure electric “Electric Vehicles Land Water Air: Forecasts, Analysis, Opportunities 2017-2037”
“Industrial and Commercial Electric Vehicles on Land 2017-2027”
“Agricultural Robots and Drones 2016-2026: Technologies, Markets and Players”
“Autonomous Vehicles: Land, Water, Air 2017-2037”
“Energy Harvesting/ Regeneration for Electric Vehicles 2017-2037”
“Mild Hybrid 48V Vehicles 2017-2031”
“Electric Buses 2018-2038”
“Electric Boats and Ships 2017-2027”
“Manned Electric Aircraft 2017-2027”
“Electric UAV Drones: Autonomous, Energy Independent 2017-2027”
“Energy Independent Electric Vehicles Land Water, Air 2017-2037”
Their components and systems“Power Electronics for Electric Vehicles 2017-2027”
“Range Extenders for Electric Vehicles 2017-2027”
“Lithium-ion Batteries 2018-2028”
“Future Powertrains 2017-2027”
“Advanced and Post-Lithium Batteries 2016-2026”
“Structural Electronics 2016-2028”
“Electric Motors for Electric Vehicles 2017-2027”…
Supporting your strategic business
decisions on emerging technologies
www.IDTechEx.com
IDTechEx conducts detailed examinations of emerging technologies, which are delivered through our Market Research Reports and Subscription services.
Research
Our expert analysts deliver custom projects which identify markets, appraise technologies, define growth opportunities and perform due diligence.
Consulting
IDTechEx conferences and tradeshows match end users with the latest innovations, providing networking, sales and knowledge sharing.
Events
Offices: USA: +1 617 577 7890 Germany: +49 3991 669 3591 Korea: +82 31 263 7890
UK: +44 (0)1223 812 300 Japan: +81 90 1704 1184
Dr Peter Harrop
[email protected], [email protected]
www.electricvehiclesresearch.com
23
