Poul_RoRo Fleet 1003 - Maritime
Transcript of Poul_RoRo Fleet 1003 - Maritime
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Oct-10 1
Maritime Development Center
RoRo & RoPax Market
Challenges and Opportunities
Source: Navitaship; ShipPax
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Agenda
Before the Crisis
RoRo Market
RoPax Market
Challenges
Opportunities Questions
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Before the Crisis
RoRo/RoPax markets enjoyed healthy growth in
freight volumes.
Development and expansion of route network by
operators. High profitability.
Charter market enjoyed historical high rates.
Large orderbooks and high contract values. Vintage tonnage went through life extension.
Deficit of tonnage and high demand.
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What does the market look like in termsof tonnage profile?
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RoRo Definition
Vessel with RoRo Capacity
Minimum 800 Lanemeters Passenger capacity of maximum 12 persons
Maximum 1,800 cars
Maximum 2.0 cars per Lanemeter(To avoid typical car carriers)
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800-1200 LM26%
1200-1700 LM27%
1700-2200 LM17%
2200-2700 LM9%
2700-3200 LM8%
3200+ LM13%
RoRo Fleet Composition(No. of Vessels)
Average Age: 19.8 YearsFleet: 443 Vessels / 865,022 Lanemeters
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800-1200 LM13%
1200-1700 LM20%
1700-2200 LM18%2200-2700 LM
11%
2700-3200 LM12%
3200+ LM26%
RoRo Fleet Composition(Capacity)
Average size: 1,986 LM
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No.ofVesse
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RoRo Delivery Profile
Delivered On Order Scrapped/Lost
443 Vessels Delivered
38 Vessels on Order
114 Vessels Scrapped/Lost
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Lanemeters
RoRo Size Development
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0-4 Years12%
5-9 Years12%
10-14 Years16%
15-19 Years8%20-24 Years
8%
25-30 Years18%
>30 Years26%
RoRo Age Profile
Average Age: 19.8 Years
Average in 2007 abt 21 years
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No.ofVessels
RoRo Order Book
800-1200 1700-2200 2700-3200 3200+
Total Orderbook38 Vessels128,847 Lanemeters14.9 % of Fleet
Total Orderbook 1Q 2008
Abt 60 VesselsAbt 200,000 Lanmeters
Abt 19% of Fleet
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-6,0%
-4,0%
-2,0%
0,0%
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10,0%
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
FleetGrowthRate
Lanemeter
s
RoRo Fleet Development
Total Fleet Capacity Total Est. Fleet Capcity Growth Rate Est. Growth Rate
2009 scrapping: 32,000 LM
2010 scrapping: 90,000 LM (ytd)
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EUR/Day
RoRo T/C Rates Development(1 year Moving Average)
1,251 - 1,750 LM 1,751 - 2,250 LM 2,251 - 2,750 LM
-30%
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RoPax Definition
Vessel with RoRo and Passenger Capacity
Minimum 800 Lanemeters Passenger capacity of above 12 persons
Passenger capacity of maximum 2,000 persons
Minimum 1.25 Lanemeters per Passenger(To avoid typical ferries)
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800-1199 LM17%
1200-1699 LM29%
1700-2199 LM31%
2200-2699 LM14%
2700-3199 LM4%
>3200 LM5%
RoPax Fleet Composition(No. of Vessels)
Average Age: 16.7 yearsFleet: 299 Vessels / 556,963 Lanemeters
Average Age in 2007: Abt 17 years
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800-1199 LM9%
1200-1699 LM
23%
1700-2199 LM33%
2200-2699 LM18%
2700-3199 LM7%
>3200 LM10%
RoPax Fleet Composition(Capacity)
Average Size: 1,863 LanemetersAverage Pax: 578 Passengers
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RoPax Delivery Profile
Delivered On Order
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Lanemeters
RoPax Size Development
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Passengers
Average Passengers per RoPax Vessel
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0-4 Years15%
5-9 Years18%
10-14 Years15%15-19 Years
17%
20-24 Years13%
25-30 Years5%
>30 Years17%
RoPax Age Profile
Average Age: 16.7 Years
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No.ofVesse
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RoPax Order Book
1700-2200 LM 2200-2700 LM 2700-3200 LM 3200+ LM
Total Orderbook19 Vessels49,349 Lanemeters8.9 % of Fleet
Total Orderbook 1Q 2008
Abt 38 Vessels
Abt 90,000 LanmetersAbt 16% of Fleet
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-2,0%
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GrowthRate
Lanemeters
RoPax Fleet Development
Total Fleet Capacity Total Est. Fleet Capaity Growth Rate Est. Growth Rate
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Challenges
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Market Conditions
Soft demand for modern RoRo and RoPax tonnagewithin last 18 months, with rates down abt 30-35% from
peak in Spring 2008.
Surplus tonnage in the market, particularly RoPax having
a number of laid up vessels.
Order book delivering additional tonnage to a saturated
market. In 2011 more than 50% of the current order book
will be delivered. Yet only weak signs economic upturn.
Expectation of further 18-24 months of depressed
markets to be bridged.
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Opportunites
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Factors
Low shipbuilding activity, and order books reduced to
less than 15 pct for RoRo and less than 10 pct for
RoPax.
High age profile (20/17 years average).
High scrapping activity for RoRo 90,000 LM (~10%)
ytd.
Political pressure to put trailers at Sea.
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RoPax vs. Ferries
RoPax tonnage replacing vintage Ferry tonnage.
RoPax provides more freight capacity, and less
passengers, in line with todays travel/traffic pattern.
More steady year round freight earnings.
Ageing Ferry fleet fail to comply with new SOLAS 2010
requirements coming into force by Oct 2010.
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0-4 Years
10%
5-9 Years12%
10-14 Years
9%
15-19 Years10%
20-24 Years
16%
25-30 Years14%
>30 Years
29%
Ferry Age Profile
Average Age: 21.8 years
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Political Pressure
Focus on lower emissions
Trucks and trailers by sea in stead of road
EU subsidies to new lines (e.g. LD Lines St. Nazaire/Gijon)
Modernisation of fleet to improve economy of scale Larger vessels to reduce emission level per transported unit.
Other political measures
Road pricing being introduced
Road safety
Truck free days
More restrictive driving hours / Resting requirement
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Limited Newbuilding
Number of capable shipyards is limited
RoRo
4-5 yards in Asia (this number is increasing)
8-10 yards in Europe
RoPax
2-3 yards in Asia (this number is increasing)
5-6 yards in Europe
After crisis Korean and Chinese yards have again started to focus more on
specialised tonnage including RoRo and RoPax.
Highly sophisticated vessels, compared to standard tonnage
High building cost
High degree of specialisation for each design
Short building series
Prices have not been reduced to the degree expected during crisis.
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Forecast3-5 years
Soft market will continue through 2011.
Continued scrapping of RoRo and expected scrapping of
RoPax/Ferries from 2012.
Scrapping of RoRos will off-set newbuilding capacity through 2013.
Current surplus RoPax vessels will be absorbed by the market
during next 1-2 years.
Balanced supply/demand expected again during 2012.
Continued growth in European freight volumes.
Further consolidation of operators expected (like DFDS/Norfolkline) Focus on economy of scale Larger more cost effective vessels.
Limited newbuilding activity in 2009 and 2010, leaving a supply
deficit in the market from 2013.
Increased overall demand.
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ShipbrokersSales & Purchase Newbuildings Chartering - Valuations
September 2010
Question?
http://www.navitaship.com/