Potential use for fish and fish habitat modelling in assessments of a changing Huron-Erie Corridor

Investigators: Susan Doka & Ken Minns

GIS: Carolyn Bakelaar, Charlene Rae, Andrew DoolittleProject Support: Lynn Bouvier, Jason Barnucz, Matt

Stuart, Kathy Seifried, Cindy Chu, Kris VandeSompel

Partners: Linda Mortsch, Andrea Hebb, Joel Ingram, Maggie Galloway, Krista Holmes, Nick Mandrak

Funding Support: CCIAP & IJC

Fish & Fish Habitat Modelling Examples

• Static Weighted Suitable Area Assessments by Fish Guild of Climate Change-Induced Habitat Changes

• Deterministic Long-term Trends in Population Dynamics based on Water Level Fluctuations

• Short-term Spatially Explicit Trends in First Year Dynamics for Select Fish Species

Fish Habitat Supply Model Layers

Source: David Fay & Yin Fan, Environment Canada

Lake St. Clair - Water Level Scenarios

LAKE STATISTICS

CHANGE FROM BASE CASE

-0.26-0.87-0.65-1.01Autumn

-0.20-0.80-0.64-1.01Summer

-0.20-0.81-0.63-0.98Annual

1.901.901.711.751.73Annual Range174.05173.46173.72173.37174.38Minimum

-0.78

-0.77-0.81

175.36174.57

WARM & WET

176.11175.38

BASE CASE

Growing Season

SpringWinter

MaximumMean

NOT-AS Warm & Wet

NOT-AS Warm & Dry

WARM & DRY

-0.21-0.62-0.95

-0.18-0.63-1.00

175.95175.43175.12175.18174.75174.40

-0.61 -0.16-0.98

174.0

174.5

175.0

175.5

176.0

176.5

jan feb march april may june july aug sept oct nov dec

Month

Wat

er le

vel (

m)

Not as Warm&WetNot as Warm&DryWarm&WetWarm&Dry

Basis of Comparison (BOC)

MaximumMeanMinimum

Climate Change Scenarios

Lake St. Clair Water Level Scenarios

Lake St. Clair “What-if” Scenario

• 1.57 m (IGLD85) water level decline

• 8 m dredged channel

• Shoreline displacement from 0.5 to 6 km

Source: Lee et al, 1994

Huron-Erie Corridor Wetland Locations

Mitchell’s BaySt Clair NWA

Hillman Marsh

Point Pelee

Canard River

Holiday Beach

Average ice-free water depths for Mitchell’s Bay: High Water Historic (1978) and Climate Change Predictions

Average ice-free water depths for Mitchell’s Bay: Low Water Historic (1964) and Climate Change Predictions

Summary of average annual predictions for Lake St. Clair under four climate change scenarios (from Croley 2004)

T +3.0

HadCM 3 A1FIWarm & Wet

T 10.7

HadCM 3 B22Not so Warm-Wet

CGCM2 A21Warm & Dry

CGCM2 B23Not so Warm-Dry

Surface Temp (oC)GCM

Overlake Precipitation

(mm)Ice Cover %

Base Case P 803 I 35.5% H 10.7

P 0

Humidity (mb)

H +2.9

H +2.1

H +2.1

H +2.1

I -11%

I -7%

I -12%

I -11%

P -37T +2.1

T +3.2

T +2.7

P +37

P +110

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 8 16 24 32 40 48

Week of Year

Tem

pera

ture

(oC

)

HADC3A(Warm & Wet)

Base Case

Min & Max

Average weekly temperature predictions for Lake St. Clair: Historic and Extreme Climate Change (from Croley 2004)

Lake St. Clair Wetland Temperatures

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

28-Jun 18-Jul 7-Aug 27-Aug 16-Sep 6-Oct 26-Oct 15-Nov

Open (Mitchell’s Bay)

Dyked (St. Clair NWA)

2003

Tem

pera

ture

(oC

)

bowfin, smallmouth bass, largemouth bass, muskellunge, white perch*, white bass

white sucker, Iowa darter, banded killifish, brook silverside, striped shiner, shorthead redhorse, round goby, river chub, golden shiner, pugnose shiner, emerald shiner, blackchin shiner, spottail shiner, yellow perch

WarmCool

longnose gar, northern pike, walleye

rock bass, black bullhead, yellow bullhead, brown bullhead, freshwater drum, goldfish*, goldfish, quillback, common carp, gizzard shad, lake chubsucker, channel catfish, bigmouth buffalo, green sunfish, pumpkinseed, orangespotted sunfish, bluegill, spotted sucker, ghost shiner, mimic shiner, tadpole madtom, white crappie, bluntnose minnow, black crappie, central mudminnow

trout-perchNon-Piscivore

Cold

HEC Fishes Captured in Coastal Wetlands by Guilds

Piscivore

Non-Piscivore

Locations:Mitchell’s Bay (Lake St. Clair), St. Clair National Wildlife Area, Canard River (Detroit River), Holiday Beach (West Lake Erie)

Wetland Species at Risk in HEC

Holiday Beach

National Wildlife AreaMitchell’s Bay

Erimyzon sucetta

Lepomis humilis

Ictiobus cyprinellus

Minytrema melanops

Spotted Sucker Special Concern

Orangespotted SunfishSpecial Concern

Lake Chubsucker Threatened

Bigmouth Buffalo Special Concern

Notropis anogenus

Pugnose Shiner Endangered

Field Work: Coastal wetland fish community sampled in 2003 barrier and open marshes

Habitat Supply Model Results

bowfin, smallmouth bass, largemouth bass, white bass

white sucker, banded killifish, brook silverside, greater redhorse, shorthead redhorse, round goby, golden shiner, pugnose shiner, emerald shiner, blackchin shiner, spottail shiner, yellow perch, logperch

WarmCool

longnose gar, northern pike, spotted gar, walleye

chinook salmon, brown trout

Piscivore(P)

rock bass, black bullhead, yellow bullhead, brown bullhead, freshwater drum, goldfish, spotfin shiner, common carp, gizzard shad, channel catfish, bigmouth buffalo, green sunfish, pumpkinseed, warmouth, orangespotted sunfish, bluegill, pugnose minnow, white perch,mimic shiner, tadpole madtom, white crappie, bluntnose minnow, fathead minnow, black crappie, central mudminnow

troutperchNon-Piscivore(N)

Cold

Climate Change Scenario: Baseline is 2m, 100 ha wetland with mixed vegetation and fine substratesEffect is 1m water level drop with same habitat (i.e. gradual change)

Adult Habitat

Cool

War

m

Cold

50

100 ha

0

N

N N

P

P

P 50

100 ha

0

N

N N

P

P

P 50

0

N

N N

P

P

YOY Habitat

Cool

War

m

Cold

50

100 ha

0

N

N N

P

P

P

0

N

N N

P

P

P

0

N

N N

P

P

P

Spawning Habitat

50

100 ha

0

N

N N

P

P

P 50

Cool

War

m

Cold100 ha

0

N

N N

P

P

P 50

0

N

N N

P

P

P

Historical water level (m) Climate change water levelYearMar-Nov (average) (Historical -0.8m)

1978 174.42 173.661964 173.66 172.86

High Historic (1978)

Low CC

Low Historic (1964)

High CC

High Historic (1978)

Low CC

Low Historic (1964)

High CC

white sucker, johnny darter, banded killifish, brook silverside, golden shiner, pugnose shiner, emerald shiner, blackchin shiner, blacknose shiner, spottail shiner, yellow perch, logperch

rock bass, black bullhead, yellow bullhead, brown bullhead, freshwater drum, quillback, gizzard shad, pumpkinseed, bluegill, mimic shiner, tadpole madtom, pugnose minnow, bluntnose minnow, black crappie, warmouthcentral mudminnow, carp, goldfish

bowfin, largemouth bass

Long Point Fish Guilds in Habitat Supply Model

WarmCool

Piscivore

Non-Piscivore

northern pike, spotted gar, longnose gar

Potential Invaders (Mandrak 1989)

ironcolour shiner

blacktail shiner, golden topminnow, blackspotted topminnow, flier, banded pygmy sunfish, bantam sunfish, goldeye, plains minnow, plains topminnow, river carpsucker, blue sucker, shovelnose sturgeon, steelcolour shiner, mud sunfish, blackbanded sunfish, banded sunfish, Ozark minnow

shortnose gar

WarmCool

Piscivore(P)

Non-Piscivore(N)

High Historic (1978)

Low CC

Low Historic (1964)

High CC

High Historic (1978)

Low CC

Low Historic (1964)

High CC

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

30-Apr 30-May 29-Jun 29-Jul 28-Aug 27-Sep 27-Oct

Long Point Inner Bay Big Creek Marsh (undyked)

Long Point Nearshore Temperature Variability

Climate Change Predictions: +2.1 to +3.3 oC

Information generated by Burlington / IJC Study

Fish Submodels supplied to IERMIntegrated Environment & Shared Vision Models

GIS

Database & Habitat Models

Wetland Temperatures

Habitat Layers Habitat Supply

Water Levels & Temperature Time Series (H&H) Field Work

Larval Fish

Fish Population Dynamics

Fish Guild Habitat Supply

8 guilds + 2 SAR fish spp

Fish Models

4 fish populations

Refine Model components / Validate Output

IERMSVM

Vegetation Community Changes

Fish, Wildlife & Habitat Submodels

Vegetation Submodel

Test Sensitivity / Refine Performance Indicators

Regulation Scenarios

Criteria & Performance Indicators

Wetland/Veg

Substrate

Depth/Elevation

Buffer shoreline types to depth contour

Map habitat combinations

Model suitabilities for different life stages, species & guilds

Habitat Suitability Modelling

Temperature

Temperature

Lower Spawn Temp

Upper Spawn Temp

YOY start (mid-spawn T) YOY end

(growth T)

WSA Excluded (both YOY & Juv/Ad)

Weighted Suitable Area

Lower Spawn Temp

Upper Spawn Temp

Juv/Ad end(growth T)Juv/Ad end(growth T)

Juv/Ad start(growth T)Juv/Ad start(growth T)

WSA Excluded (both YOY & Juv/Ad)

Lower Growth Temp

Upper Growth Temp

Annual Cycle

Adults

Egg

YOY (50mm; end season)

Hatch (yolk sac)

Swim-up (exogenous feeding

pre-50mm stage)

Juveniles

Daily time series

Smallmouth Bass

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Largemouth Bass

0

5

10

15

20

25

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Regulated Unregulated

Fish population densities in Presqu’ile Bay, Lake Ontario - Regulated and unregulated conditions

Fish

den

sity

(fis

h/ha

)

Next Steps & Potential Hypotheses

• Good spatial information for assessment, especially digital elevation models & dynamic substrate, but add other important variables (turbidity & flow)

• Location of high quality fish habitat under climate change in HEC and important transition areas for protection

• Assessment of likely development changes & strategies and their effects on fish & fish habitat

• Whole fish community & fish population assessments, both spatial and temporal to test extremes