Potential Synergies between GEM and CCRIF on Seismic Risk...
Transcript of Potential Synergies between GEM and CCRIF on Seismic Risk...
Potential synergies between GEM and
CCRIF on seismic risk modelling and
the SRC/CCRIF accelerometer project
Simon Young
CEO, Caribbean Risk Managers Ltd
Facility Supervisor, CCRIF
CCRIF EQ Model - Hazards
• Create event set
– Historical catalogue statistically insufficient
– Use standard source/rate techniques (e.g.
Peterson et al. (2008) for USGS hazard
maps) to generate stochastic event catalogue
• PDE from 1990, with CMT information where
available
• GR b-value of 1 assumed for whole basin
• 5,000 year event set generated
– 11-km grid used for analysis
CCRIF EQ Model - Hazards
• Generate shaking footprint for each event
– Attenuation functions
• ShakeMap ‘small quake function’ for <5.2
• Transitions to depth-based functions, Boore,
Joyner and Fumal for shallow, then Youngs et al
for deeper (interface then intraslab >50km)
– Site amplification
• Use Wald and Allen (2007) as per ShakeMap:
elevation- and slope-based, use Caribbean
formulation (developed for Puerto Rico) and SRTM
90-m DEM
CCRIF EQ Model - Vulnerability
• Exposure derived from
– Economic data
– Population distribution (Landscan)
– Land use (MODIS)
• Damage function family from Global
Earthquake Safety Initiative (GESI) for
standard building types
Use by CCRIF
• National/Government loss event set used to generate country-specific and porfolio risk curves
• These in turn used to price coverage to countries and negotiate reinsurance
• Secondary outputs include hazard maps, country risk profiles
• Real-time model uses USGS hypocentre and CMT information if available (not necessary though) – RT model uses exact same algorithms as
probabilistic model
Future Developments
• 2013 EQ model upgrade:
– Comprehensive review of event set and
revision of generating algorithm/assumptions
– Better attenuation function selection by 3-d
structural segregation across region (e.g. EU-
CENTRE project for Eastern Caribbean)
– Improve curve-fitting algorithms for generating
loss curves
GEM Synergy
• CCRIF needs its own model because the real-time loss calculation is critical
• CCRIF modelling platform is flexible and can utilise externally-developed modules
• Key synergies we see include:
– Stochastic event-set generation techniques and Caribbean-specific assumptions
– Segmenting north and west Caribbean for attenuation functions
– Caribbean-specific damage functions
SRC/CCRIF Accelerometer Project
• CCRIF has agreed to co-fund SRC project which aims to install accelerometers across the region
• Current project has 12 instruments for EC, with CCRIF funding hardware and some installation support
• SRC is funding, in-kind, other aspects of project and also has funding for additional instruments in Trinidad and is seeking additional co-funding for wider roll-out