Werner WeissAEE – Institute for Sustainable Technologies

Peter BiermayrVienna University of Technology

The Solar Thermal Potential in Europe

Share of Renewables 2005 and target 2020

Share of Renewable Energies in 2005 and 2020

0,00%

10,00%

20,00%

30,00%

40,00%

50,00%

60,00%

Austria

Belgium

Bulgari

a

Cyprus

Czech

Rep

ublic

Denmark

Estonia

Finlan

d

France

German

y

Greece

Hunga

ry

Irelan

dIta

lyLa

tvia

Lithu

ania

Luxe

mburg

Malta

Netherl

ands

Poland

Portug

al

Roman

ia

Slovak

ia

Sloven

iaSpa

in

Sweden

United

King

dom

Share of Renewable Energies 2005Goal for Renewable Energies 2020

Heating and Cooling in EU countries

Source of data: EU (2008)

Final Energy Demand in EU

Electricity20%

Transport31%

Heating and Cooling

49%

Source: EREC, 2006

Background of the Study

ESTIF assigned a potential study in order to determine the contribution of Solar Thermal to the 20% Renewable Target of the European Union and the long term Potential by 2050

Detailed studies were carried out for Austria, Denmark Germany, Poland and Spain.

Based on the 5 county studies a methodology was developed in order to calculate the overall potential for solar thermal and the economic benefits and costs for EU 27

Content of the Study

1. Current Heat demand in the selected countries

2. Current solar thermal market in the selected countries

3. Development of the heating and cooling demand 2020 – 2050

4. Solar thermal market development 2020 – 2050

5. Potential in the five reference countries

6. Overall Potential – EU 27

Source of data:European Communities 2008, EU energy and transport in figures, Statistical Pocket book 2007/2008

Final Energy Consumption EU-27 by Sector in 2005

Final Energy Consumption by Sector - 2005 EU 27

[Total: 13,609 TWh]

Service15%

Transport31%

Housholds26%

Industry28%

Source of data:European Communities 2008, EU energy and transport in figures, Statistical Pocket book 2007/2008

Low Temperature Heat Demand EU-27 by Sector in 2005

Low Temperature Heat Demand by Sector - 2005 EU 27

[Total: 4,640 TWh]

Industry20%

Households 61%

Service19%

Low Temperature Heat Demand EU-27 by Sector in 2006

Final Energy Consumption for Heating and Air Conditioning - EU 27 in 2006 Total 4640 TWh

Space Heating Service17,3%

Space Heating Residential - MFH17,2%

Space Heating Residential - SFH

33,8%

Water Heating Residential - SFH5,5%

Water Heating Residential - MFH4,7%

Industrial Heat - Low Temp.19,5%

Air conditioning Residential0,4%

Air conditioning Service1,5%

Low Temperature Heat Demand: GermanyHeating and Hot Water - 2006

0,0

100,0

200,0

300,0

400,0

500,0

600,0

Space heating Water heating

final

ene

rgy

cons

umpt

ion

(TW

h)

ElectricityBiomassDistrict HeatGasOilCoal

Low Temperature Heat Demand: SpainHeating and Hot Water - 2006

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,0

Space heating Water heating

final

ene

rgy

cons

umpt

ion

(TW

h)ElectricityBiomassGasOilCoal

Development of the Heating and Cooling Demand 2005 – 2050

Source of data:Haas et al. (2007) and calculations EEG

0,0%

20,0%

40,0%

60,0%

80,0%

100,0%

120,0%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Rel

ativ

e de

velo

pmen

t of e

nerg

y so

nsum

ptio

n (2

005=

1) Space heatingIndustrial heat

Energy consumption for Air Conditioning in the Residential Sector 2006 - 2050

Source of data: EECCAC; sources of 2020, 2030 and 2050 data: calculations by EEG and AEE INTEC

Austria Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWh)

2005 2020 2030 2050 0,15 0,26 0,57 0,83

Germany Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWh)

2005 2020 2030 2050 0,88 1,63 3,34 5,22

Denmark Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWh)

2005 2020 2030 2050 0,03 0,06 0,21 0,53

Spain Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWh)

2005 2020 2030 2050 6,23 10,8 15,84 19,95

Poland Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWh)

2005 2020 2030 2050 0,14 0,78 1,66 2,36

Energy consumption for Air Conditioning in the Service Sector 2006 - 2050

Austria: Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWhe) 2005 2020 2030 2050 0,40 0,49 0,77 1,03

Germany: Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWhe) 2005 2020 2030 2050 3,13 5,78 10,63 13,86

Denmark: Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWhe) 2005 2020 2030 2050 0,09 0,2 0,52 0,65

Spain: Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWhe) 2005 2020 2030 2050 22,1 34,1 45,98 57,97

Poland: Energy consumption for air conditioning (TWh) 2005 2020 2030 2050 0,44 1,22 2,40 3,35

Source of data: EECCAC; sources of 2020, 2030 and 2050 data: calculations by EEG and AEE INTEC

The Solar Thermal Potential

EU 27

Scenario 1 – Business As Usual

• No reduction of the heating and cooling demand compared to 2006.

• Moderate political support mechanisms: Besides a few forefront countries no solar obligations for new residential buildings; subsidies (10-30% of the system cost) for residential buildings and moderate energy prices of fossil energy.

• Low R&D rate and therefore no solution for high energy density heat stores or new collector materials; no sufficient and cost competitive solutions for solar thermal cooling.

• Main focus on solar thermal systems for hot water preparation in the residential sector; solar combisystems with low solar fraction (10-20%); marginal market diffusion in all other sectors.

• Low growth rates in all EU 27 countries of installed capacity (7-10% per annum until 2020).

• Moderate reduction of the heating demand compared to 2006(depending on the country but on average: -5% by 2020, -10% by 2030 and -20% by 2050).

• Political support mechanisms: Solar obligations for all newresidential buildings; subsidies for existing residential, service and commercial buildings as well as for industrial applications (subsidies: 10 - 30% of the system cost) or constantly moderate rising energy prices of fossil energy.

• Medium R&D rate and therefore solutions for high energy density heat stores and new collector materials; sufficient and cost competitive solutions for solar thermal cooling by the year 2020.

• Main focus on solar combisystems for hot water preparation and space heating in the residential sector; solar combisystems with low solar fraction (10-20%) until 2020 and medium solar fraction (20-50%) from 2020; moderate market diffusion in all other sectors.

• Medium growth rate of installed capacity (10-15% per annum until 2020).

Scenario 2 – Advanced Market Deployment

• Significant reduction of the heat demand compared to 2006(depending on the country but on average: -10% by 2020, -20% by 2030 and -30% by 2050).

• Full political support mechanisms: Solar obligations for all new and existing residential, service and commercial buildingsas well as for low temperature industrial applications or high energy prices of fossil energy.

• High R&D rate and therefore solutions for cost efficient high energy density heat stores and new collector materials; sufficient and cost competitive solutions for solar thermal cooling available by 2020.

• Main focus on solar combisystems for hot water preparation and space heating in the residential sector; solar combisystems with low solar fraction (10-20%) until 2020 and high solar fraction (50-100%) from 2020; substantial market diffusion in all other sectors.

• High growth rate of installed capacity (~25% per annum until 2020).

Scenario 3 – Full R&D and Policy Scenario

In order to use the Potential…

Solar Active House

Large-Scale Prefabricated Solar Renovation

source: gap solution

Large-Scale Prefabricated Solar Renovation

Thermal Energy Storage – The Key Issue

• Sensible Heat

≈ 100 MJ/m³

• Latent Heat

≈ 300 - 500 MJ/m³

• Thermo-chemical Heat Storage

≈ 1000 MJ/m³

Thermal Energy Storage – The Key Issue

LARGE-SCALE INDUSTRIAL APPLICATIONS

District Heating – 3MWth, AEVG, Graz, Austria

Source: S.O.L.I.D.

shown on two reference countries

RESULTS

Final Energy Demand - Austria

Final Energy Demand in Austria - 2006

[Total: 311 TWh]

Service14%

Transport29%

Housholds25%

Industry32%

Share of Heat - Austria

Total Final Energy Consumption in Austria

and share of heat - 2006 [Total: 311 TWh]

High temperature heat

>250°C10%

Low temperature heat <250°C

35%

Electricity and Transport

55%

Solar Thermal Potential Austria

0,00

20,00

40,00

60,00

80,00

100,00

120,00

[TWh]

Heating/CoolingDemand AT -

2006

Solar Thermal2006

Heat Demand AT- 2020 -7,5%

Solar Thermal2020

Heat Demand AT- 2030 - 20%

Solar Thermal2030

Heat Demand AT- 2050 - 38%

Solar Thermal2050

Contribution of Solar Thermal to the Austrian Heating and Cooling Demand by Sector

Industrial Heat - Low Temp.Air conditioning ServiceSpace Heating ServiceAir conditioning Residential (el.)Water Heating Residential - MFHSpace Heating Residential - MFHWater Heating Residential - SFHSpace Heating Residential - SFH

0,9%10%

19%40%

Heat

Combisystems

for space heating and hot water

Roof and facade areas needed for installation of solar collectors to achieve the

requirements of the Full R&D and Policy Scenario - Austria

Suitable area of roof and facade needed

0,00%

5,00%

10,00%

15,00%

20,00%

25,00%

30,00%

35,00%

40,00%

0,33 3 5 8

[m²/inhabit.]

[% o

f arc

hite

ctur

ally

sui

tabl

e ar

ea n

eede

d]

-

10,00

20,00

30,00

40,00

50,00

60,00

[km

² sol

ar a

rea

need

ed]

Share of suitable land area needed [%]Share of suitable roof area needed [%]Share of suitable facade area needed [%]Suitable land area needed [km²]Suitable roof area needed [km²]Suitable facade area needed [km²]

Solar Thermal Potential Spain

0,00

50,00

100,00

150,00

200,00

250,00

300,00

[TWh]

Heating/CoolingDemand ES -

2006

Solar Thermal2006

Heat Demand ES- 2020 -1%

Solar Thermal2020

Heat Demand ES- 2030 -4.4%

Solar Thermal2030

Heat Demand ES- 2050 -12%

Solar Thermal2050

Contribution of Solar Thermal to the Spanish Heating and Cooling Demand by Sector Industrial Heat - Low Temp.

Air conditioning ServiceSpace Heating Service

Air conditioning ResidentialWater Heating Residential - MFH

Space Heating Residential - MFHWater Heating Residential - SFH

Space Heating Residential - SFH

63%

29%

5%0,22%

Cooling and Heat

Combisystems

for space heating, cooling and hot water

Competition of PV driven cooling??

Roof and facade areas needed for installation of solar collectors to achieve the

requirements of the Full R&D and Policy Scenario - Spain

Suitable area of land, roof and facade needed in Spain

0,00%

10,00%

20,00%

30,00%

40,00%

50,00%

60,00%

0,02 0,5 3 6

[m²/inhabit.]

[% o

f arc

hite

ctur

ally

sui

tabl

e ar

ea n

eede

d]

-

50,00

100,00

150,00

200,00

250,00

[km

² sol

ar a

rea

need

ed]

Share of suitable land area needed [%]Share of suitable roof area needed [%]Share of suitable facade area needed [%]Suitable land area needed [km²]Suitable roof area needed [km²]Suitable facade area needed [km²]

Solar Thermal Potential EU27

0,00

500,00

1000,00

1500,00

2000,00

2500,00

3000,00

3500,00

4000,00

4500,00

5000,00

[TWh]

Heating/CoolingDemand EU 27 -

2006

Solar Thermal2006

Heat Demand2020 -9%

Solar Thermal2020

Heat Demand 2030 -20%

Solar Thermal2030

Heat Demand2050 -31%

Solar Thermal2050

Contribution of Solar Thermal to the EU 27 Heating and Cooling Demand by Sector

Industrial Heat - Low Temp.Air conditioning ServiceSpace Heating ServiceAir conditioning ResidentialWater Heating Residential - MFHSpace Heating Residential - MFHWater Heating Residential - SFHSpace Heating Residential - SFH

0,2%3,6%

15%

47%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500 Market Development 2005 - 2050 according to 3 Szenarios - EuropeG

Wth

Business as usual Advanced market deployment Full R&D and Policy Scenario

1.5 m²/ inh = hot water

Solar Thermal Potential EU27Contribution to the overall low temperature heat

and cooling demand

Combisystems low solar fraction

Combisystems high solar fraction

Solar Thermal Potential EU27Contribution to the overall low temperature heat

and cooling demand

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500 Market Development 2005 - 2050 according to 3 Szenarios - EuropeG

Wth

Business as usual Advanced market deployment Full R&D and Policy Scenario 8 m²/Inh = 2716 GW (3880 Mill m²) 47%

3 m²/Inh = 1019 GW (1455 Mill m²)

0.8m²/Inh = 271 GW (388 Mill m²)

15%

3.6%

Solar Thermal Potential EU27

Contribution to the EU 20% Renewable Energy Goal

Assuming a 9% reduction of the overall final energy demand by 2020 compared to the year 2006, the contribution of solar thermal to the EU 20% Renewable Energies Goal would be 6.3% under the RDP scenario and 2.4% under the less ambitious AMD scenario.

Related to the 11.5 percentage points necessary increase of renewable energies (Reference share 2005 = 8.5%) in the EU 27 countries until 2020, the contribution of solar thermal would be12% according to the RDP scenario; 4.5% according to the AMD scenario and 2.9% in the business as usual scenario.

Growth Rate in terms of Installed Collector Area

Annual Growth 25,8%

GWth Mill. m²Status 2005 14,2 20,2

Installed in 2006 2,2 3,12007 2,8 4,02008 3,5 5,02009 4,4 6,32010 5,5 7,92011 6,9 9,92012 8,7 12,42013 10,9 15,62014 13,8 19,72015 17,3 24,72016 21,8 31,12017 27,4 39,12018 34,4 49,22019 43,3 61,92020 54,5 77,8

Economical Impact

Jobs in Solar Thermal EU 27

0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

350.000

400.000

450.000

500.000

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Num

ber o

f Job

s RDP Scenario

Economical Impact

67

13

34

11 2

38

6

44

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Billion €

Spa

ce H

eatin

gR

esid

entia

l -S

FH

Wat

er H

eatin

gR

esid

entia

l -S

FH

Spa

ce H

eatin

gR

esid

entia

l -M

FH

Wat

er H

eatin

gR

esid

entia

l -M

FH

Air

cond

ition

ing

Res

iden

tial

Spa

ce H

eatin

gS

ervi

ce

Air

cond

ition

ing

Ser

vice

Indu

stria

l Hea

t -Lo

w T

emp.

Total Investment 2006 - 2020 [Total 214 Billion €]

Economical Impact

Installed capacity Collector area System cost excl. VAT

Total Investment until…

[GWth] [Mill. m²] [€/m²] [Bilion €]

2006 16 23 650 15 2020 272 388 553 214 2030 1.018 1.454 470 683 2050 2.716 3.880 399 1.549

8155

582

1.552

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

[TW

h/a]

2006 2020 2030 2050

Solar Yield

Environmental Impact

1,222

81

217

0,0

50,0

100,0

150,0

200,0

250,0

Bill

ion

t/a

2006 2020 2030 2050

Oil Equivalent

Environmental Impact

Environmental Impact

3,869

258

687

0,0

100,0

200,0

300,0

400,0

500,0

600,0

700,0

Million t/a

2006 2020 2030 2050

Avoided CO2 Emissions

Summary

It‘s the right moment:

Heat accounts for almost 50% of the Final energy demand in the EU

All EU 27 countries have to work out an Renewables Action Plan this year.

Without the renewable heat sector, the targets will not be reached

Solar Thermal can contribute considerable

Thank you for Thank you for your attentionyour attention