Potential Refined Petroleum Product Reserve Analysis

13
Click to edit Master title style Potential Refined Petroleum Product Reserve Analysis Office of Petroleum Reserves US Department of Energy Click to edit Master title style

description

Click to edit Master title style. Potential Refined Petroleum Product Reserve Analysis. Office of Petroleum Reserves US Department of Energy. United States Domestic Vulnerabilities. Hurricane Sandy. Hurricane Sandy demonstrated extreme vulnerability of East Coast. Category 1 Hurricane. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Potential Refined Petroleum Product Reserve Analysis

Page 1: Potential Refined Petroleum Product Reserve Analysis

Click to edit Master title style

Potential Refined Petroleum Product Reserve Analysis

Office of Petroleum ReservesUS Department of Energy

Click to edit Master title style

Page 2: Potential Refined Petroleum Product Reserve Analysis

Click to edit Master title styleUnited States

Domestic Vulnerabilities

2

Page 3: Potential Refined Petroleum Product Reserve Analysis

Click to edit Master title styleHurricane Sandy

• Hurricane Sandy demonstrated extreme vulnerability of East Coast.– Category 1 Hurricane.– Struck East Coast on 10/30/12

• Hurricane Sandy Impacts:– Major Loss of Electrical Power– 2 Refineries Damaged– Over 40 NYH Terminals closed

due to electric power losses and water damages

– NY area gas stations without power and fuel for 5-30 days.

• NEHHOR was called on to provide ULSD supplies to DLA-Energy and address Connecticut fuel shortages.

3

Page 4: Potential Refined Petroleum Product Reserve Analysis

Click to edit Master title style

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

Nyharbor - Us Gulf Coast

Conv

entio

nal G

asol

ine

Pric

e ($

/Gal

lon)

Hurricane SandyGasoline Price Impacts

Colonial P/LResumedDeliveries11/12/12

HurricaneSandy

Landfall10/30/12

NUSTARRestarts

Deliveries11/10/12

Differential in NY Harbor vs. Gulf Coast Gasoline Prices

4

Page 5: Potential Refined Petroleum Product Reserve Analysis

Click to edit Master title style

10/1/1

2

10/5/1

2

10/9/1

2

10/13/1

2

10/17/1

2

10/21/1

2

10/25/1

2

10/29/1

2

11/2/1

2

11/6/1

2

11/10/1

2

11/14/1

2

11/18/1

2

11/22/1

2

11/26/1

2

11/30/1

2

12/4/1

2

12/8/1

2

12/12/1

2

12/16/1

2

12/20/1

2

12/24/1

2

12/28/1

20.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

NY harbor - GULF Coast

ULS

D P

rice

($/G

allo

n)

Hurricane Sandy ULSD Price Impacts

HurricaneSandy

Landfall10/30/12

NEHHOR Release of 450 Bbls11/03/12

Differential in NY Harbor vs. Gulf Coast ULSD Prices

5

NEHHORRelease of 20,000 Bbls

11/24/12

NEHHORRelease of

100,000 Bbls11/12/12

Page 6: Potential Refined Petroleum Product Reserve Analysis

Click to edit Master title style

6

East Coast Vulnerabilities to Gulf Coast Hurricanes

E. Coast has increased its Vulnerability to Gulf Coast Hurricanes:

• East Coast Refinery closures have increased East Coast dependence on Gulf Coast products.

• Gulf Coast Hurricanes will impact product supplies via Colonial Pipeline to the East Coast

• Gulf Coast Hurricanes will similarly impact product supplies via U.S. flagged Tankers and ATBs to the East Coast.

East Coast Refinery Closures & Changes

Sunoco Westville, NJ (145,000 B/D) – closed 2/10Sunoco Marcus Hook, NJ (178,000 B/D) – closed 12/11Western Yorktown, VA (66,300 B/D – closed 12/11Phillips 66 Trainer, PA (185,000 B/D) – sold to Delta 4/12Sunoco Philadelphia, PA (335,000 B/D) – sold to Carlyle

Group (Philadelphia Energy Solutions) 7/12

6

Page 7: Potential Refined Petroleum Product Reserve Analysis

Click to edit Master title stylePotential Options to Consider

1. Government-Owned Reserve − Government owned stocks− Could be in commercial storage similar to NEHHOR

2. Mandated Industry Storage− Statutory requirement on Industry to hold extra

stocks in storage (no legislative authority)

3. Government Option (Tickets)− Government contract with Industry to hold extra

stocks in storage

7

Page 8: Potential Refined Petroleum Product Reserve Analysis

Click to edit Master title styleRPPR Regions & Size

• Regions: Previous experience showed that the Northeast and Southeast regions are most impacted by East Coast and Gulf Coast hurricanes.

• 5-10 days of supplies: Previous analysis of a Southeast RPPR (2011) concluded that an RPPR providing 5-days worth of emergency products would provide 70% of the benefits of an RPPR 5-times larger & that an RPPR providing 10 days of supplies would replace the fuel supplies lost during the most serious hurricane scenarios.

• Size: To provide 5-10 days of supplies to the Southeast & Northeast regions, 2 RPPRs would be needed each with 10 to 20 million barrels of product.

Page 9: Potential Refined Petroleum Product Reserve Analysis

Click to edit Master title styleRPPR – Configuration Criteria

• Southeast RPPR– Located on the Colonial & Plantation pipelines– Direct interconnections to Colonial & Plantation terminals for

product rotation and distribution• Note: “Downstream” fuel supply infrastructure would not likely suffer

major disruptions.• Northeast RPPR

– Located in areas of major product demand– High ground– Hardened with emergency power– Direct interconnections to regional terminals for product rotation

and distribution– Where necessary, provide direct truck rack and marine distribution

Page 10: Potential Refined Petroleum Product Reserve Analysis

Click to edit Master title styleSoutheast Reserve Overview

• Reserve Size (for 5-10 days of supply)• 10-20 mmb• ~ 60% Gasoline• ~ 40% Distillate

• Collocated with Colonial/Plantation pipelines• Adds new terminal capacity through lease or Federal

build (little excess capacity available in Southeast region).• Direct connections to local distribution.• Downstream fuel distribution infrastructure not

disrupted.

Page 11: Potential Refined Petroleum Product Reserve Analysis

Click to edit Master title stylePossible Southeast Reserve

Locations

•Reserve Locations– Greensboro, NC– Belton , SC– Chattanooga, TN– Bremen/Atlanta, GA– Collins, MS

(underground storage for 20 mmb reserve)

Page 12: Potential Refined Petroleum Product Reserve Analysis

Click to edit Master title styleNortheast Reserve Overview

• Reserve Size (for 5-10 days of supply)• 10-20 mmb• ~ 60% Gasoline• ~ 40% Distillate

• Utilizes existing terminals that may be available above the likely storm surge.

• Adds new terminal capacity through lease or Federal build.

• Provides truck racks to bypass disrupted downstream fuel-distribution infrastructure.

• Emergency power sufficient to operate terminals.

Page 13: Potential Refined Petroleum Product Reserve Analysis

Click to edit Master title stylePossible Northeast Reserve Locations

•Reserve Locations– Southern New

England– NY Harbor– Philadelphia– Chesapeake

(MD/VA)– Boston (If

NEHHOR is assimilated into RPPR)