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Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Bay-Delta Tidal Marsh Vegetation V.T. Parker 1, J.C. Callaway...
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Transcript of Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Bay-Delta Tidal Marsh Vegetation V.T. Parker 1, J.C. Callaway...
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Bay-Delta Tidal Marsh Vegetation
V.T. Parker1, J.C. Callaway2, E.R. Herbert1, M.C. Vasey1, L.M. Schile3
1San Francisco State University, 2University of San Francisco, 3University of California, Berkeley
Climate change is likely to cause substantial shifts in estuarine salinity and water levels over the next century, with higher summer salinities due to reduced snowmelt and higher water levels due to increased global sea-level rise.
Field sites:1. China Camp SP salt marsh2. Petaluma salt marsh3. Coon Island4. Rush Ranch5. Browns Island6. Sand Mound Slough
1
23 4
56
Brackish Marshes
Salt Marshes
Freshwater Marshes
Brackish Marshes
Salt Marshes
Current areas of saltwater-freshwater mixing are indicated by yellow and light blue
Future areas of saltwater-freshwater mixing will shift inland, impacting the high diversity, high productivity systems in the Suisun and
western Delta regions.
PptShifts from
Snow to rainSmaller
Snowpack
Earlier meltSpring floods
Increased inundationCO2
increases
IncreasingTemperatures
Lower Summer
flows
ReducedPeat
formation IncreasedEstuarine
salinity
Sea levelRise
Our research is focused on evaluating effects of climate change on vegetation dynamics across the estuary, including potential impacts on plant community composition and diversity, primary productivity, and decomposition rates. We are evaluating these dynamics at six marshes along a salinity gradient within the Bay-Delta, from China Camp to Sand Mound Slough.
Research support: CalFed Grant 1037
Biodiversity: changes along estuarine salinity
gradient.
Carbon cycling: productivity and decomposition.
Currently processing 2008 season productivity measurements Previous data indicated variable rates ranging from: Salt Marshes: 200-800 gm m-2Brackish tidal marshes: 700-1300 gm m-2Freshwater tidal marshes: 1300-2500 gm m-2
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0
Time (Days)
% Mass Remaining
CC L SAVI
CC L SCAM
CC L TYSPP
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0
Time (Days)
% Mass Remaining
CI H SAVI
CI H SCAM
CI H TYSPP
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0
Time (Days)
% Mass Remaining
CI L SAVI
CI L SCAM
CI L TYSPP
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0
Time (Days)
% Mass Remaining
CC H SAVI
CC H SCAM
CC H TYSPP
High Marsh
Chi
na C
amp
Low Marsh
Coo
n
Typha domingensis
Bolboschoenus maritimus
Sarcocornia pacifica
•Pilot study focuses on 3 species at 2 sites in high and low marsh plots•Not a full year cycle yet•Early data indicate great variability based on species characteristics•Early trends suggest decomposition slows in
Low marsh compared to high marshMore saline sites compared to less saline sites
Decomposition studies:
Productivity studies:
Wetland productivity & decomposition link to multiple food-websDecomposition a major source of DOM and POM
Acknowledgements: Eyvan Borgnis, Jessica, Tara
•Earlier results indicate strong negative relationship between salinity and plant diversity•20 randomly placed 0.1 ha plots used this past season consistent with methods used in other types of vegetation worldwide•Early analyses parallel previous results
Salt marshes:China Camp has lowest diversity at 12 speciesPetaluma Marsh has far higher diversity with 23 plant species found in plots
Brackish Marshes:Coon Island, similar in salinity to PM has 25 species in plotsRush Ranch contained 53 species
Freshwater Tidal Marshes:Browns Island (with an oligohaline interior) is similar in diversity to RR with half the plots analyzedSand Mound Slough, with only 7/20 plots analyzed possess 75 speciesSand Mound Slough
Browns Island
Rush Ranch
Coon Island
Petaluma Marsh
China Camp
Previous results demonstrate a strong negative relationship between salinity and species diversity or productivity
Research support: CalFed Grant 1037
Biodiversity: changes along estuarine salinity
gradient.
Carbon cycling: productivity and decomposition.
Currently processing 2008 season productivity measurements Previous data indicated variable rates ranging from: Salt Marshes: 200-800 gm m-2Brackish tidal marshes: 700-1300 gm m-2Freshwater tidal marshes: 1300-2500 gm m-2
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0
Time (Days)
% Mass Remaining
CC L SAVI
CC L SCAM
CC L TYSPP
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0
Time (Days)
% Mass Remaining
CI H SAVI
CI H SCAM
CI H TYSPP
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0
Time (Days)
% Mass Remaining
CI L SAVI
CI L SCAM
CI L TYSPP
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0
Time (Days)
% Mass Remaining
CC H SAVI
CC H SCAM
CC H TYSPP
High Marsh
Chi
na C
amp
Low Marsh
Coo
n
Typha domingensis
Bolboschoenus maritimus
Sarcocornia pacifica
•Pilot study focuses on 3 species at 2 sites in high and low marsh plots•Not a full year cycle yet•Early data indicate great variability based on species characteristics•Early trends suggest decomposition slows in
Low marsh compared to high marshMore saline sites compared to less saline sites
Decomposition studies:
Productivity studies:
Wetland productivity & decomposition link to multiple food-websDecomposition a major source of DOM and POM
Acknowledgements: Eyvan Borgnis, Jessica, Tara
•Earlier results indicate strong negative relationship between salinity and plant diversity•20 randomly placed 0.1 ha plots used this past season consistent with methods used in other types of vegetation worldwide•Early analyses parallel previous results
Salt marshes:China Camp has lowest diversity at 12 speciesPetaluma Marsh has far higher diversity with 23 plant species found in plots
Brackish Marshes:Coon Island, similar in salinity to PM has 25 species in plotsRush Ranch contained 53 species
Freshwater Tidal Marshes:Browns Island (with an oligohaline interior) is similar in diversity to RR with half the plots analyzedSand Mound Slough, with only 7/20 plots analyzed possess 75 speciesSand Mound Slough
Browns Island
Rush Ranch
Coon Island
Petaluma Marsh
China Camp
Previous results demonstrate a strong negative relationship between salinity and species diversity or productivity
Brackish Marshes
Salt Marshes
Freshwater Marshes
Brackish Marshes
Salt Marshes
Current areas of saltwater-freshwater mixing are indicated by yellow and light blue
Future areas of saltwater-freshwater mixing will shift inland, impacting the high diversity, high productivity systems in the Suisun and
western Delta regions.