Potential growth of the Russian economy in the long-term ... · russian labor market forecast...

©Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования

RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCESINSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC FORECASTING

Potential growth of the Russian economy in the long-term prospect

©Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования РАНSHAGHAI

2016

Темпы экономического роста

©Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования РАН

EXCHANGE RATE

91,35

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

01.0

1.0

7

01.0

1.0

9

01.0

2.1

0

01.0

4.1

0

01.0

6.1

0

01.0

8.1

0

01.1

0.1

1

01.1

2.1

1

01.0

2.1

2

01.0

4.1

2

01.0

6.1

2

01.0

8.1

2

01.1

0.1

2

01.1

2.1

2

01.0

2.1

3

01.0

4.1

3

01.0

6.1

3

01.0

8.1

3

01.1

0.1

3

01.1

2.1

3

01.0

2.1

4

01.0

4.1

4

01.0

6.1

4

01.0

8.1

4

01.1

0.1

4

01.1

2.1

4

01.0

2.1

5

01.0

4.1

5

01.0

6.1

5

01.0

8.1

5

01.1

0.1

5

01.1

2.1

5

руб./$

Курс рубля к доллару США (на 1 число след. Месяца)

Отношение М2 к золотовалютным резервам

EXCHANGE RATE

M2/RESERVS

RUB/S 222426283032343638404244464850525456586062646668707274

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

Янв 2

011

Мар 2

011

Май 2

011

Ию

л 2

011

Сен 2

01

1

Ноя 2

011

Янв 2

012

Мар 2

012

Май 2

012

Ию

ль 2

012

Сен 2

01

2

Ноя 2

012

Янв 2

013

Мар 2

013

Май 2

013

Ию

ль 2

013

Сен 2

01

3

Ноя 2

013

Янв 2

014

Мар 2

014

Май 2

014

Ию

ль 2

014

Сен 2

01

4

Ноя 2

014

Янв 2

015

Мар 2

015

Май 2

015

Ию

ль 2

015

Сен 2

01

5

Ноя 2

015

руб./$$/барр.

Цена нефти Urals

Курс доллара (правая шкала)

URALS

EXCHANGE RATE

RUB/S$/BARR.


IMPACT OF CURRENCY CHANGE ON INDUSTRIES OUTPUT

CHANDE OF OUTPUT FOR 10% RUBLE DEVALUATION

2,1

2,0

2,0

0,4

0,1

-0,2

-0,6

-0,9

-1,0

-1,0

-1,3

-1,6

-3,7

-4,0 -3,0 -2,0 -1,0 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0

Wood products

Chemical products

Metallurgy

Paper

Leather

Other non-mineral products

Food

Electro equipment

Machinery and equipment

Textile

Rubber and plastics

Transport equipment

Car industry

©Институт народнохозяйственного прогнозирования РАН 4

FOREIGN INVESTMENTS

-5 000

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Банковский сектор Сектор нефинансовых предприятийNON-FINANCE SECTOR

-10 000

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Банковский сектор Сектор нефинансовых предприятийBANKS NON-FINANCE SECTOR

FOREIGN INVESTMENTS TO RUSSIA, mln. usd FOREIGN INVESTMENTS FROM RUSSIA, mln. usd

BANKS


FUNDING FROM SANCTION COUNTRIES

27,6 27,9

23,2

27,3

14,6 14,6

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

1,14 2,14 3,14 4,14 1,15 2,15

FUNDING FROM SANCTIONS COUNTRIES, bln. usd

In inertial scenario outside 2017 payment for Russian debts won't be exceeded by

70-80 bln. USD per year.

FOREIGN DEBD, bln. usd

729 716 733681

599556 557 538 515

62 5457

49

42

34 3632

31

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,2014 4,2014 7,2014 10,2014 1,2015 4,2015 7,2015 10,2015 1,2016

Non-government Government


Current model of financing of growth

ROW MATERIALS OUTPUT WORLD PRICES

EXPORT INCOMES

SAVINGS

GROWTH OF CONSUMPTIONSOVEREIGN

FUNDS

CAPITAL

FLOWFINANCIAL SYSTEM

INTERNAL CREDITS

FUNDING FROM ABROAD


CAPITAL RESTRICTIONS

UPGRADE PRODUCTION CAPACITY 2008-2014, % CHANGE IN CAPACITIES 2008-2014, %

9%

16%

20%

27%

28%

29%

30%

32%

34%

35%

48%

56%

57%

58%

68%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Bearings

Truck cranes

Combine harvesters

Synthetic rubbers

Footwear

Turbines gas

Finished steel

Pipes steel

Cement

Machines metal-cutting

Fertilizers mineral

Freight cars

Trucks

Refrigerators deep freezes

Cars

- 20 40 60 80 100 120

Food production

Textile production

Chemical production

Production of ferrous metals

Woodworking and ц.б. pr-in

Production of construction materials

Machine-building kinds of activity

Capacities use level in 2014 г. Index of output 2014 / 2008

Index of capacities growth 2014 / 2008


RUSSIAN LABOR MARKET FORECAST

Russia can expect decrease of labor force, employed and increase of ration of dependants and employed.

However, the process is the challenge for Russian economy but this is not disaster.


RISKS OF CURRENT POLICY

INERTIAL SCENARIO: OIL PRICES 52 $/bar. in 2016-2018

9

Источник: расчеты ИНП РАН

0,1

0,81,1

-3,60

-2,83

-1,76

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

2016 2017 2018

Прирост ВВП, в % к предыдущему году Изменение ВВП к уровню 2014 г., в %GDP Y/Y % GDP In % of 2014


AVERAGE GROWTH RATES, %

2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2015-2035

HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION 1.7 3.9 2.3 2.7 2.1

GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION 1.1 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.9

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT 7.3 3.7 3.0 3.0 3.4

EXPORT 2.3 1.8 3.5 4.0 2.3

IMPORT 0.9 3.5 2.5 2.6 1.9

GDP 3.6 3.4 2.7 2.9 3.2

PARAMETERS OF BASE SCENARIO

2016 2020 2025 2030 2035

Urals, $/bar. 43.0 64.9 83.7 92.4 102.0

World GDP, % 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8

RUBLE exchange rate, rub/$ 60.0 66.7 67.1 74.0 81.5

Base CPI 9.8 6.1 4.5 3.5 3.3

BASE MACROECONOMIC FORECAST


THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF GROWTH BY FACTORS

2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2015-2035

HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION 20% 59% 43% 47% 45%

GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION 6% 7% 6% 4% 5%

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT 54% 32% 31% 29% 36%

INVENTORY 7% 3% -7% -11% -6%

NET EXPPORT 20% -1% 27% 31% 20%

GDP 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

GROWTH SHERE OF INVESTMENT IN GDP, MODERNIZATION

OF INDUSTRY AND INFRASTRUCTURE

USING OF POTENTIAL OF

HOUSEHOLDS

CONSUMPTION

GROWTH OF NET EXPORT


DYNAMICS BY SECTORS

2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2011-2035

Agriculture and forestry, hunting and fishing 2.1 1.8 1.2 0.7 2.0

Mining operations 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5

High-tech secondary industries 7.4 5.5 4.7 5.1 4.5

High-level medium-tech secondary industries 8.3 5.8 4.1 4.3 4.6

Low-level medium-tech secondary industries 2.3 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.5

Low-tech secondary industries 3.8 6.2 3.2 3.3 3.0

Electrical energy, gas and water production and

distribution 1.9 1.9 1.0 0.5 1.3

Construction 5.9 3.2 2.7 2.6 3.2

Wholesale and retail trade, repair works 3.5 3.5 2.7 2.9 2.6

Hotels and restaurants 5.6 7.2 3.5 3.9 4.0

Transportation and storage 2.4 3.1 2.4 3.0 1.9

Telecommunications 4.4 4.8 3.3 2.8 3.3

Finance 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.7 2.8

Real estate 3.5 3.7 2.4 2.4 2.6

R&D 17.9 3.7 2.8 2.1 5.8

Other business services 4.0 3.9 3.1 2.6 2.9

Public administration, оборона 2.2 2.5 1.8 1.7 1.8

Education 2.5 3.4 2.1 2.3 2.1

Helth 2.4 3.2 1.8 1.8 2.0

TOTAL OUTPUT 3.7 3.3 2.4 2.5 2.6

BASE MACROECONOMIC FORECAST

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

LABOR PRODUCTIVITY (2015 г.=1) 1 1.17 1.36 1.51 1.69

ENERGY ENTENCITY (2015 г. = 1) 1 0.81 0.68 0.59 0.51


Demographic potential of employment

THE LOW-QUALIFIED

WORKERSSKILLED WORKERS

OUTPUT, labor productivity

MIGRATION

LABOUR DEMAND, WAGES

OUTPUT IN HI-TECH SECTORS

EDUCATION

LABOUR RESTRICTIONS


STRUCTURE OF EMPLOIMENT

9,4%

1,5%

2,3%

4,9%

3,4%

5,4%

2,8%

8,3%

13,1%

1,9%

6,5%

1,6%

2,1%

3,3%

2,0%

4,7%

6,2%

9,5%

7,0%

4,1%

17,5%

0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0%

Agriculture and forestry, hunting and fishing

Mining operations

High-tech secondary industries

High-level medium-tech secondary industries

Low-level medium-tech secondary industries

Low-tech secondary industries

Electrical energy, gas and water production and…

Construction

Wholesale and retail trade, repair works

Hotels and restaurants

Transportation and storage

Telecommunications

Finance

Real estate

R&D

Other business services

Public administration

Education

Helth

Other services

2015 2035


REQUIREMENT FOR EDUCATION

in thousands of people Machinery and equipment Automobiles and equipment

2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030

TOTAL 38 52 50 34 28 21

managers 1,7 2,2 1,2 2,3 1,3 0,4

experts 11,4 15,8 17,1 8,2 8,3 7,5

office workers and servicing personnel 7,4 10,3 11,9 4,6 5,3 5,3

skilled workers 11,2 15,3 13,1 11,7 8,5 5,3

operators 4,5 6,1 4,9 5,0 3,4 1,9

unskilled workers 2,1 2,8 2,2 2,4 1,6 0,8

Radio, television, communication

equipmentAirplanes, rockets, sea transport

2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030

TOTAL 15,0 14,7 14,3 22,7 20,5 22,8

managers 0,9 0,6 0,4 1,2 0,7 0,5

experts 3,9 4,4 4,8 6,4 6,7 7,9

office workers and servicing personnel 2,3 2,8 3,3 4,0 4,5 5,5

skilled workers 4,9 4,3 3,8 7,0 5,6 5,8

operators 2,0 1,7 1,4 2,8 2,1 2,2

unskilled workers 1,0 0,8 0,6 1,3 1,0 0,9

Electrical apparatus TOTAL

2020 2025 2030 2020 2025 2030

TOTAL 18 18 18 129 134 127 1889

managers 1,1 0,7 0,5 7 6 3 50

experts 4,9 5,4 6,1 35 41 43 640

office workers and servicing personnel 3,0 3,6 4,2 21 27 30 443

skilled workers 5,9 5,2 4,7 41 39 33 493

operators 2,4 2,0 1,8 17 15 12 186

unskilled workers 1,2 0,9 0,8 8 7 5 81


NEW MODEL OF FINANCING

EXPORT GROWTH

EXPORT INCOME

SAVINGS

INTERNAL CONSUMPTION

FINANCE SYSTEM

INTERNAL CREDITS

EXTERNAL

FUNDINGINTERNAL INCOME

PRODUCTIVITY GROWTHDecrease of import in

internal consumption


TARGETS FOR LONG-TERM DEVELOPMENT

Share of investment in GDP , % 22 25-27 23-21 18-20

R&D in GDP, % 1,1 2,5 2,9 2,7

Nominal GDP per capita(PPC),

% of USA 17 (45) 35 (55) 50(62) 60(67)

Life expectancy at birth,

years 71,4 75,9 77,2 78,9

Surplus of trade balance,

in % оf GDP 8 5 3 1,5

17

2040

INTERNAL PHASE OF GROWTH EXPORT EXPANCION

2025 20302015

Potential growth of the Russian economy in the long-term ... · russian labor market forecast...

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