Potential for Climate Change Mitigation in Macedonian Conditions
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Potential for Climate Change Mitigation in Macedonian Conditions
Natasa Markovska
Research Center for Energy, Informatics and Materials,Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts
(ICEIM-MANU)Skopje, Macedonia
5 November 2009
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• Inventory of Greenhouse Gases Emissions, First and Second National Communications under the UNFCCC
• GHG Mitigation Analysis and Projections of Emissions, First and Second National Communications under the UNFCCC
• Evaluation of Technology Needs for GHG Mitigation in the Energy Sector
Underlying national studies, conducted at ICEIM-MANU Beneficiary: MOEPP
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Climate Change -examples of good governance
• Partnership: Policy-making – Academia (lasts for more then a decade)
• CC in NSSD as a key challenge together with Clean Energy (in line with the EU SDS)
• CC in Sectoral strategies: Energy Strategy– Higher operational costs (purchase of emissions
allowances)– Higher investment costs (request for BAT: Clean
Coal, CCS)
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Year
[kt
CO
2-eq
] Agriculture
Waste
Transport
Industry
Heating
Electric
Projections of the total GHG emissions - Baseline scenario
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CC Mitigation in Electricity Sector
• Introduction of gas fueled CHP (2 plants, 300 MWe each)
• Introduction of new renewables – small hydro, wind, PV (total 180 MW)
• Reduced consum (electricity market liberalization, Large consumers in first phase)
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Projections of the total GHG emissions - Second mitigation scenario
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Year
[kt
CO
2-eq
] Agriculture
Waste
Transport
Industry
Heating
Electric
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Key values for the three scenarios
2008-total GHG emissions
[kt CO2-eq]
2025 - total GHG emissions
[kt CO2-eq]
Baseline scenario 14,040 23,947
First Mitigation scenario
13,904 20,348
Second Mitigation scenario
12,645 16,713
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Total GHG emissions 1990-2020
1000012000140001600018000200002200024000
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2020
Year
kt C
O2-
eq
Baseline scenario Second mitigation scenario
Baseline Scenario / Second Mitigation Scenario
2020-value (kt CO2-eq): 21500/15000
Average annual growth rate (%): 3.6/1.4
Grid factor (kt CO2-eq/kWh): 1.2 in 1990, increases slightly/ decreases for 22%, to 0.9
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GHG TARGETS for EU Candidates
• Non Annex I Country – currently, no quantitative target• Future commitments:
Limitation over the ANNUAL GROWTH RATE of emissions
1000012000140001600018000200002200024000
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2020
Year
kt C
O2-
eq
Baseline scenario Second mitigation scenario
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GHG TARGETS for EU Candidates
• Need for regional project for determination of overall (regional) GHG target and individual national GHG targets
• Additional activities– CB through ETS pilot projects– Institutional setting, legislative support,
technical knowledge– Regional cooperation in negotiating the targets– Building of NEGOTIATION capacities