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Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta...
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![Page 1: Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta Robert A. Monserud Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland,](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c925503460f9494cf3c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution
under Climate Change in Alberta
Robert A. MonserudPacific Northwest Research Station,
Portland, Oregon, USA
Yuqing Yang & Shongming Huang Ministry of Sustainable Resource Development,
Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
Nadja TchebakovaSukachev Forest Institute, Krasnoyarsk, Russia
Western Mensurationists 2007
![Page 2: Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta Robert A. Monserud Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland,](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c925503460f9494cf3c/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Objectives
• Examine variation in both LPP site productivity and species range under future climate change scenarios across Alberta
![Page 3: Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta Robert A. Monserud Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland,](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c925503460f9494cf3c/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta)
• Alberta’s most important & common forest tree
• 20% of mature stems, 40% of annual harvest
• Wide ecological amplitude– Best on moist rich sites with long warm
growing season– Also grows on dry, nutrient poor sites with
short growing season– Can tolerate frost pockets and cold air
drainage
![Page 4: Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta Robert A. Monserud Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland,](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c925503460f9494cf3c/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Steps
1. Map LPP site productivity (SI) across Alberta
2. Map climate across Alberta
3. Connect SI and climate (GDD5)
4. Connect species range and climate (DI)
5. Interpolate climate change scenarios onto Alberta Climate Map
6. Calculate potential SI and species range under climate change scenarios
![Page 5: Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta Robert A. Monserud Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland,](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c925503460f9494cf3c/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Productivity Data:
1145 Stem analysis plots
•Mean SI = 14.4 m•Range = 4.3 to 26.5 m
Step 1
![Page 6: Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta Robert A. Monserud Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland,](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c925503460f9494cf3c/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
•ANUSPLIN map of site index across the natural distribution of lodgepole pine
•Residual Mean = 0•Residual S.Dev.=1.24 m
Step 1b: Map SI
![Page 7: Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta Robert A. Monserud Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland,](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c925503460f9494cf3c/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Step 2: Alberta Climate Model
• Basis: network of 1260-1433 weather stations
• Period: 1961-1990 (30-yr climate normals)
• Buffer: 2o around Alberta
• Mapping tools: ANUSPLIN & ArcInfo– Thin-plate 4-D smoothing splines– Uses Latitude, Longitude, Elevation to predict 4th variable– (Hutchinson, Australian Nat’l Univ)
![Page 8: Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta Robert A. Monserud Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland,](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c925503460f9494cf3c/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
•Growing degree days >5oC (GDD5)
5
365
1
5 )( GDDdtTT
Step 2: Map Climate
![Page 9: Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta Robert A. Monserud Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland,](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c925503460f9494cf3c/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Step 3
• Connect Alberta Climate Model to the network of 1145 Site Index plots for LPP across Alberta
• Variables in common:
Latitude, Longitude, Elevation
![Page 10: Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta Robert A. Monserud Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland,](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c925503460f9494cf3c/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Step 3 Results: SI=f(GDD5)
• Strongest correlations with Site Index: Measures of Heat– Julian date when GDD5 reaches
100 (D100)– Growing degree days >5oC
(GDD5)– Mean temperature of July, the
warmest month• Explains 26% of variation• All 3 are highly
intercorrelated (r=0.98)
![Page 11: Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta Robert A. Monserud Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland,](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c925503460f9494cf3c/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Step 4: Connect species range and climate
• Connect species range and climate using Dryness Index (DI)
• DI is the ratio of GDD5 to annual precipitation
• 99% DI limits on natural range of LPP are 0.9-2.6 oC mm-1
![Page 12: Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta Robert A. Monserud Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland,](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c925503460f9494cf3c/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Step 5: Climate Change Scenarios• Used 3 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from IPCC
– Hamburg– Hadley– Canadian
• Used new SRES A2 emissions scenarios – (“Business-as-usual”)
• Used all three 30-yr time periods:– 2020s (2011-2040) – 2050s (2041-2070) – 2080s (2071-2100)
• Scenarios are monthly anomalies (differences) in temperature and precipitation from current climate
• Anomalies must be added to Alberta current climate map
![Page 13: Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta Robert A. Monserud Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland,](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c925503460f9494cf3c/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Step 5: Interpolate Anomalies
• Interpolate climate change scenarios onto Alberta Climate Map (2 km x 2 km)
• GCMs are very coarse resolution: 2.5o to 3.75o
• Weighted average of 5 closest anomalies for each of 166,000 pixels (weight = inverse distance squared)
• Add weighted anomalies to current climate map
![Page 14: Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta Robert A. Monserud Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland,](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c925503460f9494cf3c/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Current climate vs. 2080 GDD5
![Page 15: Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta Robert A. Monserud Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland,](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c925503460f9494cf3c/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Step 6: Potential SI
• Calculate potential SI and species range under climate change scenarios
• SI = 2.4 + 0.012 GDD5
• Species range: Dryness Index 0.9 to 2.6oC mm-1
![Page 16: Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta Robert A. Monserud Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland,](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c925503460f9494cf3c/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
CCM Predicted SI: Current & 2020
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CCM Predicted SI: 2050 & 2080
![Page 18: Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta Robert A. Monserud Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland,](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c925503460f9494cf3c/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Current Climate SI
![Page 19: Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta Robert A. Monserud Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland,](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c925503460f9494cf3c/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Hadley: 2020, 2050, 2080 SI
![Page 20: Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta Robert A. Monserud Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland,](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c925503460f9494cf3c/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Current Climate SI
![Page 21: Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta Robert A. Monserud Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland,](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c925503460f9494cf3c/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Hamburg: 2020, 2050, 2080 SI
![Page 22: Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta Robert A. Monserud Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland,](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c925503460f9494cf3c/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Results• Similar results across all 3 GCM scenarios:• Increasing warming but no increase in
precipitation (hotter and drier)• Potential productivity (SI) increasing steadily
1 m/decade• Potential range expands in 2020s (40-70%),
but shrinks greatly in 2050s & 2080s (40-70% reduction in potential area)
![Page 23: Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta Robert A. Monserud Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland,](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c925503460f9494cf3c/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Discussion• Increased risk of forest fire• Increased risk of mountain pine beetle outbreaks
(warmer winters)– Potential for MPB to bridge east to the Atlantic
• Reforestation (planting) should consider populations adapted to future climates
• Northern populations might already be adapted to future warm climates (Rehfeldt’s BC work on LPP)
![Page 24: Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta Robert A. Monserud Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland,](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c925503460f9494cf3c/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
![Page 25: Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta Robert A. Monserud Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland,](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c925503460f9494cf3c/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
![Page 26: Potential Change in Lodgepole Pine Site Index and Distribution under Climate Change in Alberta Robert A. Monserud Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland,](https://reader038.fdocuments.us/reader038/viewer/2022110205/56649c925503460f9494cf3c/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
That’s all, folks
• Thanks