Potato trends in a Modern Market - Teagasc · © Kantar Worldpanel 0 50 100 150 200 250 300...
Transcript of Potato trends in a Modern Market - Teagasc · © Kantar Worldpanel 0 50 100 150 200 250 300...
© Kantar Worldpanel© Kantar Worldpanel
Potato trends in a Modern MarketCliona Lynch - Kantar Worldpanel
© Kantar Worldpanel
Agenda
1. Close up on a Modern Consumer
2. Potatoes still central to Irish meals
3. How are Potatoes performing?
4. Where can we address challenges?
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Sentiment at its highest since January 2006
Source: ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index
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3.8%
2.0%
-0.6%
2.4%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%9
02
90
4
90
6
90
8
91
0
91
2
10
01
10
03
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10
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07
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05
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07
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15
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04
15
06
15
08
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10
15
12
Inflation HH Spend change
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Ireland (ROI )Grocery inflation across 38,000 items
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
ROI market growth vs. inflation
2014 2015
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–+0.8 trip
–+2.2%
–+2%
–-2.3%
–NC
–-0.2 trip
–+3.6%
–+1%
–+5.5%
–+2.6%
Shoppers relaxed the purse strings this Christmas
–More Trips?
–Average spend
–Volume Bought
–Trip Spend
Price Paid
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, data to 3rd Jan 2016
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-0.015 -0.01 -0.005 0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.035 0.04
% Change inPrice
HOUSEHOLD
ALCOHOL
FROZEN
AMBIENTGROCERIES
HEALTHCARE
TOILETRIES
TOTAL MARKET
TOTAL FOOD
TOTAL FRESH &CHILLED
Change on price versus lastChristmas
Chart Footnote
We paid more for Fresh Food this year…
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Battle between treat and health categories…
KWP Total Grocery Data 4 weeks to 4th Jan 2015 – growth +5% within Top Markets
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, 4 w/e 3rd Jan 2016
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8
-2
1
5 6
9
0.1
46
3
12
4 4
9
6
13
LidlAldiDunnesSuperValuTesco
4 w/e Growth
12 w/e Growth
52 w/e Growth
Ab
so
lute
Va
lue
Sa
les€
m
Strong momentum across the retail sector
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data To 3rd Jan 2016
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25.0
25.6
23.7
7.2
7.7
25.2
25.0
24.0
7.7
7.7
SuperValu claimed top spot at Christmas with a slightedge over Tesco
4.7
1.3
5.1
12
3.4
Retailer Value Share % Sales Change
Source: Kantar Worldpanel 8 w/e 3rd Jan 2016
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Agenda
1. Close up on a Modern Consumer
2. Potatoes still central to Irish meals
3. How are Potatoes performing?
4. Where can we address challenges?
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143 million* packs of potatoes sold in 2015
Potatoes are bought onceevery 2 secondsin Irish Retailers
1.65 million households purchasing annually
11
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11%
23%
Occasions Spend
€19.80€46.70
11% of all shopping trips feature potatoes. These tripscontribute 23% of all sales. When potatoes are included in thebasket, these grocery trips are worth more than averagehighlighting the importance of the potato category to retailers
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% of households buying (penetration)…
From a shopperperspective Potatoes
are the 8th mostimportant category in
store
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Jan 2016
100%
99%
99%
97%
98%
97%
97%
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
99%
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Potatoes and Frozen Potato Products together account for 84%of main meal carbs
72%
12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Main Meal Carbohydrates
Cous Cous
Noodles
Sweet Potatoes
Rice
Pizza
Pasta
Frozen Potato Products
Potatoes
14
52 w/e | % Volume Share (kgs)
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Agenda
1. Close up on a Modern Consumer
2. Potatoes still central to Irish meals
3. How are Potatoes performing?
4. Where can we address challenges?
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03-Jan-16 vs. Previous Year
Potatoes | Total Outlets | 52 w/e | Previous Year
Potato sales are up from last year as a result of price increasesand shoppers making more trips to buy.
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After a drop in 2014 Potato sales have recovered again in 2015but are still below 2007/8 levels
207,801197,388
175,964160,752
144,580
169,111
187,412
143,288
163,419
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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€ 000 Value Sales
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In volume terms however, Potatoes are back to 2008 levels witha strong recovery in the last two years
192,526
186,379182,349 181,969
172,197
164,704
183,397
195,405
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Potato Volume kg 000 Sales
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For the first time in 7 years, Potatoes saw growth in both Valueand Volume terms in 2015
-1.5
-5.1-7.8
-10.5
14.1
10.8
-23.5
14.0
-1.5
-5.1-2.2 -1.9 -1.4
-6.1
11.3
6.5
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Value Change Volume Change
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Frequency of purchase has recovered since lows of 2011 andlast year’s dip with shoppers now buying Potatoes more than 34times a year – in line with 2008/9 levels
34.7 34.6
32.5
31.5
34 33.9
32.7
34.4
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
20
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140134
120113 112 110
103113 119
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Volume per household (kgs)
Since 2013 we have also seen recovery in the volumes thathouseholds buy – as they are willing to purchase more potatoes oneach trip but this remains much lower than 2007/8 levels
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26 30 35
5954 55 53 50 49
1214
14
13
10 10 108 12
66
5
1022 21 28
2935
3736
35
1415 14
914
4
19 15 113
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0-2.5kg 5kg 7.5kg 10kg >10kg
The trend towards less than 2.5kg packs has reversed with 7.5kgpacks now at 35% share and growing steadily
% volume share
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In volume terms Roosters have a clear lead and over 50% ofthe category sales. Queens & Kerr Pinks are also growing share
52
35
4 4 3 2 1
53
32
5 5 3 2 00.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
04-Jan-15 03-Jan-16
Product % of Category Volume | Actual | Total Outlets | 52 w/e
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Roosters and Queens are winning more trips, this along withprice increases for these types is driving market growth03-Jan-16 vs. Previous Year
Total Outlets | 52 w/e | Previous Year
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Agenda
1. Close up on a Modern Consumer
2. Potatoes still central to Irish meals
3. How are Potatoes performing?
4. Where can we address challenges?
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Where are the retailer opportunities?
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03-Jan-16 vs. Previous Year
Potatoes | 52 w/e | Previous Year
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Discounters are making strong gains in the market. Tesco, Dunnesand SuperValu are all losing Potato shoppers. Dunnes andSuperValu are also losing volumes per trip
+14%
+7%
+19%
+11%
+35%
+19%
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What are the opportunities for Potatoes?
Recruit back lost shoppers & improve volumesper trip
Under-trading vs Fruit & Veg overall – win backshoppers & increase volume per trip
Under-trading vs Total Grocery – win backshoppers & look at increasing prices
Under-trading vs Fruit & Veg – focus on shopperconversion
Under-trading vs Fruit & Veg – focus on shopperconversion
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Which shoppers should we focus on?
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Pre-Family Young Family Middle Family 45+ Family OlderDependants
EmptyNesters
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Average volume benchmark
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Pre-Family households have increased their volumes since 2012 butare still below the market benchmark. Young Families remain flatwhile Empty Nesters are decreasing
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Are other carbs stealing share from Potatoes?
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In % terms Sweet Potatoes and Cous Cous see strong growth butif we look at actual volumes Potatoes are contributing the mostgrowth both in fresh & frozen processed
16,754
3,251 2,067 429 266 160 37
-1,036Potatoes Frozen
PotatoProducts
Pasta Rice Noodles Cous Cous SweetPotatoes
Pizza
5 year actual volume change
32
80.5
12.1 9.2 7.8 6.5 5 2.3
-8.3
SweetPotatoes
Cous Cous Potatoes Noodles FrozenPotato
Products
Rice Pasta Pizza
5 year % volume change
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0
5000
10000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Volume sales
Sweet Potato
0
200
400
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Volume sales
Cous Cous
While Sweet Potato growth has accelerated since 2013, CousCous has started to lose volumes in the same period
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Volume switches show shoppers moving less spend directly toother carbs
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Pack switch 52we 3rd Jan 2016
90k49k
7k
74k
14k
3k
9k
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-862
3,051
-41
0
-1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
Total Switching
Shoppers Held
Shoppers Lost
Category Arrivals
Source of Potatoes Packs (000s) Change - year ending 03 Jan 2016
CategoryLevelChanges
Although Potato sees some switching losses spend with existingshoppers has increased as more packs are purchased YoY
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An eye on trends
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Health remains high on shoppers’ agenda
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Staying in touch with your consumer
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McCain leads the pack on NPD
39
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An eye on the competition
40
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Where to from here?
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Key take aways
Vital Category
Drive Footfall
Key to high € trips
Back in Value & Volumegrowth – prices up and
shoppers returning moreoften
Sweet Potato in strong %growth but Potato growing
more in actual volume
Potatoes now also growingahead of Rice, Noodles &
Pasta
Gaining switched volumesback from Pizza
Shopper frequency nowdriving growth – next step =
grow volume on each trip
Growing younger shopperinterest – increase focus on
young families
Ensure we continue toengage older generation
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