PotashCorp - Scotiabank Fertilizer and Chemicals Conference - September 23, 2014

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PotashCorp.com Scotiabank Fertilizer and Chemicals Conference September 2014 Wayne Brownlee Executive VP & CFO

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Scotiabank Fertilizer and Chemicals Conference

Transcript of PotashCorp - Scotiabank Fertilizer and Chemicals Conference - September 23, 2014

Page 1: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Fertilizer and Chemicals Conference - September 23, 2014

PotashCorp.com

Scotiabank Fertilizer and ChemicalsConferenceSeptember 2014

Wayne BrownleeExecutive VP & CFO

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This presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements often contain words such as “should,” “could,” “expect,” “may,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “intend,” “estimates,” “plans” and similar expressions. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including with respect to: foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and effective tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. The results or events set forth in forward-looking statements may differ materially from actual results or events. Several factors could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to the following: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; risks and uncertainties related to operating and workforce changes made in response to our industry and the markets we serve; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; risks and uncertainties related to our international operations and assets; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations within major markets; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflows; economic and political uncertainty around the world; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; acquisitions we may undertake; increases in the price or reduced availability of the raw materials that we use; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; timing and impact of capital expenditures; rates of return on, and the risks associated with, our investments and capital expenditures; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; risks related to reputational loss; and earnings, and the decisions of taxing authorities, which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2013 under the captions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this release and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

Forward-looking Statements

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• Strong cash flow• Cash flow from operating activities of $3.2B in 2013• 94% complete decade-long CDN $8.3B potash expansion program

• Well positioned potash business• Low-cost supplier to key consuming regions

• Operational capability aligned with anticipated near-term demand

• Flexibility to significantly grow future sales volume

• Proven track record of returning capital to shareholders• Dividend increase of 950% since January 2011• Dividend yield of ~4%• Recently completed 5% repurchase authorization (Since 1999: $7.8B or 25%

of o/s)

PotashCorp Highlights

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Growth Potential That Is Paid For

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Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, Company Reports, PotashCorp

Operating Rate* - Percent

Record First-Half Demand Tests Global Operating Capability

World Potash Operating Rates

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* Based on percentage of operational capability as per PotashCorp (estimated annual achievable production level).

FSU North America Other 0

20

40

60

80

100

Operating Rate* - Percent

First Half 2014 Regional Operating Rates*Global Operating Rates

1H-10

2H-10

1H-11

2H-11

1H-12

2H-12

1H-13

2H-13

1H-14

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

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Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, PotashCorp

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014F

2015F

2016F

2017F

2018F

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80 Shipments Shipment Range* Operational Capability

Million Tonnes KCl

Believe Capacity Overhang Overstated; Capability Historically in Excess of Demand

World Potash Supply and Demand

Midpoint of forecast shipment range based on ~2.5% annualized demand growth rate (1998-2018F).

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PotashCorpOther North American ProducersOther World Producers

North American Producers % of New Capacity

(2013-2018F)

~70%

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Source: PotashCorp

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014F

2015E

2016E

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

PotashCorp Capital Spending**

Potash Expansion Spending Largely Complete; Return to Sustaining Levels by 2016

PotashCorp’s Opportunity

94%

6%

Completed Remaining

PotashCorp Potash Projects Estimated Capital Spending*

US$ Billions

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* As at June 30, 2014. Includes both debottleneck and expansion spending.

** Cash additions to property, plant and equipment per cash flow statement (2006-2013); 2015E and 2016E do not include Major Repairs and Maintenance expenditures (estimated at ~$140M per year) or capitalized interest.

** As we adopted International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) with effect from January 1, 2010, information from 2006-2009 is presented on a previous Canadian generally accepted accounting principals (GAAP) basis. Accordingly, previous results may not be comparable to 2010 forward.

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Q4-

10**

Q1-11

Q2-11

Q3-11

Q4-11

Q1-12

Q2-12

Q3-12

Q4-12

Q1-13

Q2-13

Q3-13

Q4-13

Q1-14

$0.00

$0.05

$0.10

$0.15

$0.20

$0.25

$0.30

$0.35

$0.40

$0.03

$0.35

Utilizing Strong Cash Flow to Enhance Long-term Shareholder Returns

PotashCorp’s Opportunity

* Dividends declared each quarter** $0.10 per share, adjusted for 3 for 1 stock split; rounded to nearest cent.

Source: Bloomberg, PotashCorp

POT AGU CF MOS IPI0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

4.2%

3.3%

2.4%2.2%

0.0%

Percent Yield*

* Indicated yield percentage as per Bloomberg at September 11, 2014.

Dividend* per Share – US$

950% In

crease

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Page 8: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Fertilizer and Chemicals Conference - September 23, 2014

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