PotashCorp - Scotiabank Fertilizer and Chemicals Conference - September 23, 2014
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Transcript of PotashCorp - Scotiabank Fertilizer and Chemicals Conference - September 23, 2014
PotashCorp.com
Scotiabank Fertilizer and ChemicalsConferenceSeptember 2014
Wayne BrownleeExecutive VP & CFO
This presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements often contain words such as “should,” “could,” “expect,” “may,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “intend,” “estimates,” “plans” and similar expressions. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including with respect to: foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and effective tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. The results or events set forth in forward-looking statements may differ materially from actual results or events. Several factors could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to the following: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; risks and uncertainties related to operating and workforce changes made in response to our industry and the markets we serve; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; risks and uncertainties related to our international operations and assets; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations within major markets; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflows; economic and political uncertainty around the world; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; acquisitions we may undertake; increases in the price or reduced availability of the raw materials that we use; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; timing and impact of capital expenditures; rates of return on, and the risks associated with, our investments and capital expenditures; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; risks related to reputational loss; and earnings, and the decisions of taxing authorities, which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2013 under the captions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this release and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
Forward-looking Statements
Slide#2
• Strong cash flow• Cash flow from operating activities of $3.2B in 2013• 94% complete decade-long CDN $8.3B potash expansion program
• Well positioned potash business• Low-cost supplier to key consuming regions
• Operational capability aligned with anticipated near-term demand
• Flexibility to significantly grow future sales volume
• Proven track record of returning capital to shareholders• Dividend increase of 950% since January 2011• Dividend yield of ~4%• Recently completed 5% repurchase authorization (Since 1999: $7.8B or 25%
of o/s)
PotashCorp Highlights
Slide#3
Growth Potential That Is Paid For
Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, Company Reports, PotashCorp
Operating Rate* - Percent
Record First-Half Demand Tests Global Operating Capability
World Potash Operating Rates
Slide#4
* Based on percentage of operational capability as per PotashCorp (estimated annual achievable production level).
FSU North America Other 0
20
40
60
80
100
Operating Rate* - Percent
First Half 2014 Regional Operating Rates*Global Operating Rates
1H-10
2H-10
1H-11
2H-11
1H-12
2H-12
1H-13
2H-13
1H-14
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, PotashCorp
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014F
2015F
2016F
2017F
2018F
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80 Shipments Shipment Range* Operational Capability
Million Tonnes KCl
Believe Capacity Overhang Overstated; Capability Historically in Excess of Demand
World Potash Supply and Demand
Midpoint of forecast shipment range based on ~2.5% annualized demand growth rate (1998-2018F).
Slide#5
PotashCorpOther North American ProducersOther World Producers
North American Producers % of New Capacity
(2013-2018F)
~70%
Source: PotashCorp
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014F
2015E
2016E
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
PotashCorp Capital Spending**
Potash Expansion Spending Largely Complete; Return to Sustaining Levels by 2016
PotashCorp’s Opportunity
94%
6%
Completed Remaining
PotashCorp Potash Projects Estimated Capital Spending*
US$ Billions
Slide#6
* As at June 30, 2014. Includes both debottleneck and expansion spending.
** Cash additions to property, plant and equipment per cash flow statement (2006-2013); 2015E and 2016E do not include Major Repairs and Maintenance expenditures (estimated at ~$140M per year) or capitalized interest.
** As we adopted International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) with effect from January 1, 2010, information from 2006-2009 is presented on a previous Canadian generally accepted accounting principals (GAAP) basis. Accordingly, previous results may not be comparable to 2010 forward.
Q4-
10**
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
Q1-14
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
$0.35
$0.40
$0.03
$0.35
Utilizing Strong Cash Flow to Enhance Long-term Shareholder Returns
PotashCorp’s Opportunity
* Dividends declared each quarter** $0.10 per share, adjusted for 3 for 1 stock split; rounded to nearest cent.
Source: Bloomberg, PotashCorp
POT AGU CF MOS IPI0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
4.2%
3.3%
2.4%2.2%
0.0%
Percent Yield*
* Indicated yield percentage as per Bloomberg at September 11, 2014.
Dividend* per Share – US$
950% In
crease
Slide#7
There’s more online:
PotashCorp.comVisit us online
Facebook.com/PotashCorpFind us on Facebook
Twitter.com/PotashCorpFollow us on Twitter
Thank you
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