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PotashCorp - Enhancing Our Competitive Position - December, 2013
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Transcript of PotashCorp - Enhancing Our Competitive Position - December, 2013
PotashCorp.com
PotashCorp
Enhancing Our Competitive Position
December 2013
This presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including with respect to: foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and effective tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. The results or events set forth in forward-looking statements may differ materially from actual results or events. Several factors could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to the following: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations within major markets; economic and political uncertainty around the world; timing and impact of capital expenditures; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflows; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; acquisitions we may undertake; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; rates of return on and the risks associated with our investments; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; and earnings and the decisions of taxing authorities, which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2012 under the captions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this presentation and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
Forward-looking Statements
Enhance our competitive position in all three nutrients• Aim is to be a low cost delivered supplier to all key markets we serve
• Optimize operations by focusing on our most efficient facilities and aligning workforce levels and operational capability with expected production profile
Retaining operational flexibility to capture growth opportunities• Continue to focus on meeting customer needs; anticipate no disruption to our potash
customers given built-in flexibility to meet expected demand levels and product requirements
• Expansion construction is expected to be finalized to support approximately 17 million tonnes; operational capability will be staffed and ramped up each year according to expected market conditions
• In phosphate, focus on improving efficiency and utilizing product mix flexibility to optimize gross margin; anticipate no disruption to customers given our ability to adjust production of end products
Objectives
* Includes estimate for corporate services
Current Level(October 31, 2013)
Potash* Phosphate* Nitrogen New Level0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
5,914
4,869
570
45520
Employee Count
Reduction Primarily in Potash and Phosphate
Workforce Changes
Total reduction of approximately 1,050 employees or 18% of company-wide
workforce
Potash
Million Tonnes (KCl)
Optimizing Potash Production Portfolio; Well Positioned to Meet Anticipated Demand
Enhancing Our Competitive Position
Source: PotashCorp
• Focus on production at lower cost facilities while simultaneously balancing our customers’ expected product needs • Fully utilize lower-cost operational capability at
Rocanville and Allan • Run Lanigan and Cory at reduced levels until
market conditions warrant higher rates• Cease production at Penobsquis while
accelerating development of lower-cost Picadilly mine; build inventory through first quarter of 2014 to help satisfy near-term customer needs
• Expansion spending nearly complete• Finalize construction (nearly 95 percent spent
by end of 2013) to support approximately 17 million tonnes; operational capability will be ramped up according to market conditions
2013 2014E 2015E 2016E0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Constructed Capability* Inventory
* Reflects estimated achievable production level based on constructed capacity, assuming operations are fully staffed and ramped up.
** Reflects estimated achievable production level based on current staffing levels and operational readiness.
US$ Per Tonne
Cost Improvement Through Optimization of Production at Lower-Cost Facilities
Enhancing Our Competitive Position
Source: PotashCorp
2013ECash Cost*
2014ECash Cost
2016Cash Cost Target
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
* Based on October 24, 2013 guidance.
** As compared to 2013 levels (not adjusted for inflation); target assumes successful ramp-up of expansions at lower-cost facilities.
Annualized Improvement**:
~$15-$20 per tonne
Cash Cost of Production (Estimate) – Potash
Annualized Improvement**:
~$20-$30 per tonne
POT (SK)
POT (NB)
Enhancing Our Competitive PositionPotashCorp’s Strong Competitive Position Expected to Improve
* Site cost includes all cash operating costs, estimated per-tonne sustaining capital expenditures, royalties and taxes. Darker shaded bars represent CRU estimated mine site production costs at actual production levels; lighter shaded bars represent PotashCorp’s estimate of competitors cost range based on company reported data.
** Competitive position dependent on end-market destination.
*** Post announcement includes impact of PotashCorp’s announced changes for 2014 (upper end of range) and 2016 target (lower end of range).
Source: CRU, Public Filings, PotashCorp
POT (SK)
POT (NB)
Potash Industry Site Cost Profile*(Pre-announcement)
Potash Industry Site Cost Profile*(Post-announcement)***
US$ Per Tonne (FOB Mine**) US$ Per Tonne (FOB Mine**)
Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, PotashCorp
Other***
FSU***
Other North America***
PotashCorp
0 5 10 15 20 25
2014 Operational Capability* 2016F Constructed Capability** Series4
Million Tonnes KCl
PotashCorp Retains Operational Flexibility; Greatest Volume Growth Potential
Enhancing Our Competitive Position
* Reflects estimated achievable production level based on current staffing levels and operational readiness.
** Reflects estimated achievable production level based on constructed capacity, assuming operations are fully staffed and ramped up.
*** PotashCorp’s estimate of production and constructed capability by region (based on publically available data).
PotashCorp’s 2014 operational capability* plus inventory position estimated to be over 10 million tonnes.
Source: Fertecon, CRU, PotashCorp
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
E
2014
F50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Global Potash Operating Rate*
Anticipate Global Potash Operating Rate in 2014 Will Approach 90 percent
Enhancing Our Competitive Position
* Based on percentage of operational capability (estimated annual achievable production level). 2014F based on mid-point of PotashCorp’s demand forecast range of 55-58 MMT.
Historical Average (20 year)
Estimated Rate Post-Announcement
Estimated Rate Pre-Announcement
Phosphate
Production - Million Tonnes (P2O5)
Optimizing P2O5 Production Portfolio; Well Positioned to Meet Customer Needs
Enhancing Our Competitive Position
Source: PotashCorp
• Focus on improving efficiency and utilizing product mix flexibility to maximize gross margin• Close Suwannee River chemical plant – one of
two plants at White Springs
• Net reduction of P2O5 (after offset from higher operating rates at Aurora) is ~215,000 tonnes; no expected impact to customers given ability to flex production on end products
• Reduce workforce levels at Aurora to improve efficiency
2013E 2014E 2015E0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5 Aurora White Springs Geismar
Optimizing Production Profile and Product Mix
Enhancing Our Competitive Position
Source: PotashCorp
US$ Per P205 Tonne
2015E*Gross Margin Improvement
0
5
10
15
20 Annualized Estimated Improvement:$10-$15 per tonne
Gross Margin Improvement (Estimate) – Phosphate
* As compared to 2013 levels (not adjusted for inflation)
Financial
US$ - Millions
Anticipate One-time Cash Charge in Fourth-Quarter 2013
Financial Impact
Source: PotashCorp
Potash Phosphate Nitrogen0
20
40
60
80
100
Estimated One-time Cash Charge*
* Charges expected to be recorded in fourth-quarter 2013; currently reviewing the carrying value of our affected assets and a write-down, if required, will be incorporated into our fourth quarter results
Total One-time Cost Estimate*:~$70M
Announced Changes Have Small Incremental Benefit to Capex Estimates
PotashCorp’s Capital Spending* Profile
Source: PotashCorp
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
US$ Millions
* Excluding capitalized interest and major repairs and maintenance
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