PotashCorp - Enhancing Our Competitive Position - December, 2013

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PotashCorp.com PotashCorp Enhancing Our Competitive Position December 2013

Transcript of PotashCorp - Enhancing Our Competitive Position - December, 2013

Page 1: PotashCorp - Enhancing Our Competitive Position - December, 2013

PotashCorp.com

PotashCorp

Enhancing Our Competitive Position

December 2013

Page 2: PotashCorp - Enhancing Our Competitive Position - December, 2013

This presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including with respect to: foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and effective tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. The results or events set forth in forward-looking statements may differ materially from actual results or events. Several factors could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to the following: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations within major markets; economic and political uncertainty around the world; timing and impact of capital expenditures; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflows; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; acquisitions we may undertake; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; rates of return on and the risks associated with our investments; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; and earnings and the decisions of taxing authorities, which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2012 under the captions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this presentation and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

Forward-looking Statements

Page 3: PotashCorp - Enhancing Our Competitive Position - December, 2013

Enhance our competitive position in all three nutrients• Aim is to be a low cost delivered supplier to all key markets we serve

• Optimize operations by focusing on our most efficient facilities and aligning workforce levels and operational capability with expected production profile

Retaining operational flexibility to capture growth opportunities• Continue to focus on meeting customer needs; anticipate no disruption to our potash

customers given built-in flexibility to meet expected demand levels and product requirements

• Expansion construction is expected to be finalized to support approximately 17 million tonnes; operational capability will be staffed and ramped up each year according to expected market conditions

• In phosphate, focus on improving efficiency and utilizing product mix flexibility to optimize gross margin; anticipate no disruption to customers given our ability to adjust production of end products

Objectives

Page 4: PotashCorp - Enhancing Our Competitive Position - December, 2013

* Includes estimate for corporate services

Current Level(October 31, 2013)

Potash* Phosphate* Nitrogen New Level0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

5,914

4,869

570

45520

Employee Count

Reduction Primarily in Potash and Phosphate

Workforce Changes

Total reduction of approximately 1,050 employees or 18% of company-wide

workforce

Page 5: PotashCorp - Enhancing Our Competitive Position - December, 2013

Potash

Page 6: PotashCorp - Enhancing Our Competitive Position - December, 2013

Million Tonnes (KCl)

Optimizing Potash Production Portfolio; Well Positioned to Meet Anticipated Demand

Enhancing Our Competitive Position

Source: PotashCorp

• Focus on production at lower cost facilities while simultaneously balancing our customers’ expected product needs • Fully utilize lower-cost operational capability at

Rocanville and Allan • Run Lanigan and Cory at reduced levels until

market conditions warrant higher rates• Cease production at Penobsquis while

accelerating development of lower-cost Picadilly mine; build inventory through first quarter of 2014 to help satisfy near-term customer needs

• Expansion spending nearly complete• Finalize construction (nearly 95 percent spent

by end of 2013) to support approximately 17 million tonnes; operational capability will be ramped up according to market conditions

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Constructed Capability* Inventory

* Reflects estimated achievable production level based on constructed capacity, assuming operations are fully staffed and ramped up.

** Reflects estimated achievable production level based on current staffing levels and operational readiness.

Page 7: PotashCorp - Enhancing Our Competitive Position - December, 2013

US$ Per Tonne

Cost Improvement Through Optimization of Production at Lower-Cost Facilities

Enhancing Our Competitive Position

Source: PotashCorp

2013ECash Cost*

2014ECash Cost

2016Cash Cost Target

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

* Based on October 24, 2013 guidance.

** As compared to 2013 levels (not adjusted for inflation); target assumes successful ramp-up of expansions at lower-cost facilities.

Annualized Improvement**:

~$15-$20 per tonne

Cash Cost of Production (Estimate) – Potash

Annualized Improvement**:

~$20-$30 per tonne

Page 8: PotashCorp - Enhancing Our Competitive Position - December, 2013

POT (SK)

POT (NB)

Enhancing Our Competitive PositionPotashCorp’s Strong Competitive Position Expected to Improve

* Site cost includes all cash operating costs, estimated per-tonne sustaining capital expenditures, royalties and taxes. Darker shaded bars represent CRU estimated mine site production costs at actual production levels; lighter shaded bars represent PotashCorp’s estimate of competitors cost range based on company reported data.

** Competitive position dependent on end-market destination.

*** Post announcement includes impact of PotashCorp’s announced changes for 2014 (upper end of range) and 2016 target (lower end of range).

Source: CRU, Public Filings, PotashCorp

POT (SK)

POT (NB)

Potash Industry Site Cost Profile*(Pre-announcement)

Potash Industry Site Cost Profile*(Post-announcement)***

US$ Per Tonne (FOB Mine**) US$ Per Tonne (FOB Mine**)

Page 9: PotashCorp - Enhancing Our Competitive Position - December, 2013

Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, PotashCorp

Other***

FSU***

Other North America***

PotashCorp

0 5 10 15 20 25

2014 Operational Capability* 2016F Constructed Capability** Series4

Million Tonnes KCl

PotashCorp Retains Operational Flexibility; Greatest Volume Growth Potential

Enhancing Our Competitive Position

* Reflects estimated achievable production level based on current staffing levels and operational readiness.

** Reflects estimated achievable production level based on constructed capacity, assuming operations are fully staffed and ramped up.

*** PotashCorp’s estimate of production and constructed capability by region (based on publically available data).

PotashCorp’s 2014 operational capability* plus inventory position estimated to be over 10 million tonnes.

Page 10: PotashCorp - Enhancing Our Competitive Position - December, 2013

Source: Fertecon, CRU, PotashCorp

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

E

2014

F50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

Global Potash Operating Rate*

Anticipate Global Potash Operating Rate in 2014 Will Approach 90 percent

Enhancing Our Competitive Position

* Based on percentage of operational capability (estimated annual achievable production level). 2014F based on mid-point of PotashCorp’s demand forecast range of 55-58 MMT.

Historical Average (20 year)

Estimated Rate Post-Announcement

Estimated Rate Pre-Announcement

Page 11: PotashCorp - Enhancing Our Competitive Position - December, 2013

Phosphate

Page 12: PotashCorp - Enhancing Our Competitive Position - December, 2013

Production - Million Tonnes (P2O5)

Optimizing P2O5 Production Portfolio; Well Positioned to Meet Customer Needs

Enhancing Our Competitive Position

Source: PotashCorp

• Focus on improving efficiency and utilizing product mix flexibility to maximize gross margin• Close Suwannee River chemical plant – one of

two plants at White Springs

• Net reduction of P2O5 (after offset from higher operating rates at Aurora) is ~215,000 tonnes; no expected impact to customers given ability to flex production on end products

• Reduce workforce levels at Aurora to improve efficiency

2013E 2014E 2015E0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5 Aurora White Springs Geismar

Page 13: PotashCorp - Enhancing Our Competitive Position - December, 2013

Optimizing Production Profile and Product Mix

Enhancing Our Competitive Position

Source: PotashCorp

US$ Per P205 Tonne

2015E*Gross Margin Improvement

0

5

10

15

20 Annualized Estimated Improvement:$10-$15 per tonne

Gross Margin Improvement (Estimate) – Phosphate

* As compared to 2013 levels (not adjusted for inflation)

Page 14: PotashCorp - Enhancing Our Competitive Position - December, 2013

Financial

Page 15: PotashCorp - Enhancing Our Competitive Position - December, 2013

US$ - Millions

Anticipate One-time Cash Charge in Fourth-Quarter 2013

Financial Impact

Source: PotashCorp

Potash Phosphate Nitrogen0

20

40

60

80

100

Estimated One-time Cash Charge*

* Charges expected to be recorded in fourth-quarter 2013; currently reviewing the carrying value of our affected assets and a write-down, if required, will be incorporated into our fourth quarter results

Total One-time Cost Estimate*:~$70M

Page 16: PotashCorp - Enhancing Our Competitive Position - December, 2013

Announced Changes Have Small Incremental Benefit to Capex Estimates

PotashCorp’s Capital Spending* Profile

Source: PotashCorp

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

US$ Millions

* Excluding capitalized interest and major repairs and maintenance

Page 17: PotashCorp - Enhancing Our Competitive Position - December, 2013

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