PotashCorp - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Agriculture Conference - February 26, 2014
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Transcript of PotashCorp - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Agriculture Conference - February 26, 2014
PotashCorp.com
Bank of America Merrill LynchGlobal Agricultural Conference
February 26, 2014
Bill Doyle
President & CEO
This presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements oftencontain words such as “should,” “could,” “expect,” “may,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “intend,” “estimates,” “plans” and similar expressions. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including with respect to: foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and effective tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. The results or events set forth in forward-looking statements may differ materially from actual results or events. Several factors could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to the following: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; risks and uncertainties related to operating and workforce changes made in response to our industry and the markets we serve; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; risks and uncertainties related to our international operations and assets; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations within major markets; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflows; economic and political uncertainty around the world; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; acquisitions we may undertake; increases in the price or reduced availability of the raw materials that we use; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; timing and impact of capital expenditures; rates of return on, and the risks associated with, our investments and capital expenditures; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; risks related to reputational loss; and earnings, and the decisions of taxing authorities, which could affect oureffective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2012 under the captions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this release and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
Forward-looking Statements
Slide#2
PotashCorp Overview
Slide#3
World’s largest fertilizer producer by capacity; #1 in potash and among the largest in nitrogen and phosphate.
Global leader in potash; nutrient with highest margins and significant barriers to entry.
Canadian potash operations and strategic offshore investments position us to benefit from growth markets.
World-class nitrogen and phosphate businesses focused on more stable feed and industrial markets.
• Strong cash flow• Cash flow from operating activities of $3.2B in 2013
• Well positioned potash business• Low-cost supplier to key markets
• 93 percent complete CDN $8.3B expansion program
• Operational capability aligned with anticipated near-term demand, with flexibility to significantly grow sales volume
• Strong balance sheet affords good flexibility• Low leverage relative to historical levels (Net debt to EBITDA)
• Access to $3.5B liquidity (commercial paper/credit facility) at low borrowing rates
• Proven track record of returning capital to shareholders• Dividend increase of 950 percent since January 2011
• Executing share repurchase program (authorization to repurchase up to 5 percent of o/s)
PotashCorp Highlights
Slide#4
Potash – Near-term Outlook
Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications, IFA, PotashCorp
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
E 2020
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60 Shipments Consumption (Estimated)
Million Tonnes KCl
2014 Shipments Expected to Match Underlying Consumption
World Potash Shipments and Consumption
Slide#6
* Based on mid-point of PotashCorp shipment forecast of 55-57 million tonnes.
Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications, PotashCorp
World Potash DemandPotential for Record or Near-record Shipments
* Forecast per PotashCorp
Slide#7
Market 2013E 2014F* Factors to Watch
China 11.0 11.3 - 11.7Demand levels at the upper end of range will likely require consumption growth and/or appetite to restock inventories. Strong first-half 2014 commitments are expected to limit second-half import requirements.
India 3.1 3.7 - 4.2Growth expected due to low inventory levels coming into 2014 and a modest improvement in consumption. Potential for stronger imports but largely contingent on changes to fertilizer subsidies.
Other Asia 7.8 8.0 - 8.3Demand expected to be robust; supportive prices for palm oil and other key crops. Consumption growth has been relatively steady despite uneven buying patterns.
Latin America 10.1 10.3 - 10.6Demand expected to be robust with supportive returns for growers and low dealer inventories at the start of 2014. Deterioration in soybean prices would be the key risk to consumption and import needs.
North America 8.7 9.0 - 9.5Strong engagement in preparation for spring season. Expect full-year demand will move higher, more inline with historical average levels.
Other 12.5 ~12.7 Potential for upside to demand expectation with improved consumption in Western Europe, FSU and/or central Europe.
Total 53.2 55.0-57.0
Estimated KCl Shipments by Market (million tonnes)
2012 2013 2014F*0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10First Half Second Half 10-Year Average*
Million Tonnes KCl
Demand Returning to Historical Levels; Anticipate Limited Offshore Imports
North America Potash Shipments
Source: IPNI, TFI, USDOC, PotashCorp
Slide#8
* Represents Olympic average (removing highest and lowest shipment totals)
2012 2013 2014F0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Domestic Producers Offshore Imports
Percentage of Total Shipments
Source: Iowa State University
lb K20 per Acrelb K20 per Acre
Revised Recommendations by Iowa State Support Need for Higher Application Rates
North American Potash Recommendations
Corn Recommendation Soybean Recommendation
80 100
120
140
160
180
200
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140 Old Recommendation
New Recommendation
Soil Test Potassium - ppm80 10
012
014
016
018
020
00
20
40
60
80
100
120
140 Old Recommendation
New Recommendation
Soil Test Potassium - ppm
Potash Shipments to Key Offshore MarketsDemand Growth Has Been Strong in Markets Outside of India
Source: Fertecon, Industry publications, PotashCorp
Million Tonnes KCl
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014F**0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35 Latin America China Other Asia*
3.7% CAGR
Million Tonnes KCl
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F**
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7 India
* Excludes India.
**Forecast per PotashCorp; represents mid-point of range.
Slide#10
Source: Fertecon, CRU, PotashCorp
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
E
2014
F50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Percent*
Expected to Rise on Increased Demand and Reduced Operational Capability
Global Potash Industry Operating Rate
* Based on percentage of operational capability (estimated annual achievable production level). 2014F based on mid-point of PotashCorp’s demand forecast range of 55-57 MMT.
Historical Average (20 year)
Slide#11
Potash – Enhancing Our Competitive Position
Enhance low cost delivered supplier to key markets
• Match operational capability with expected market demand
• Optimize production at our lowest-cost facilities
Retain operational flexibility to capture growth opportunities
• Expansion construction to be finalized to support > 18 million tonnes nameplate capacity
Potash Operating Objectives
Million Tonnes (KCl)
Matching Operational Capability with Expected Market Demand
Enhancing Our Competitive Position
Source: PotashCorp
• Beginning 2014, reduced near-term operational capability to better align with anticipated sales volume requirements
• Operations are staffed and ramped up each year according to expected market conditions in order to reduce the costs of idle capacity
• If demand exceeds expectations, inventory can serve as a buffer to ensure customer needs are met
2013 2014F 2015E 2016E0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Nameplate Capacity* Inventory
* Estimated capacity as per design specifications or completed Canpotex entitlement runs; does not necessarily represent operational capability.
** Estimated annual achievable production level at current staffing and operational readiness. Estimate does not include inventory-related shutdowns and unplanned downtime.
Slide#14
US$ Per Tonne
Optimizing Production at Our Lowest-cost Facilities
Enhancing Our Competitive Position
Source: PotashCorp
2013Cash Cost
2014ECash Cost
2016Cash Cost Target
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
* As compared to 2013 levels (not adjusted for inflation); target assumes successful ramp-up of expansions at lower-cost facilities.
Annualized Improvement*:~$15-$20 per
tonne
Cash Cost of Production – Potash
Annualized Improvement*:~$20-$30 per
tonne
Slide#15
• Fully utilize lower-cost operational capability at Rocanville and Allan
• Run Lanigan and Cory at reduced levels until market conditions warrant higher rates
• Cease production at Penobsquis during first-half of 2014 while accelerating development of lower-cost Picadilly mine
• Target other efficiencies and cost savings opportunities to further enhance competitive position
Remaining Expansions to Add Lower-Cost Operational Capability
Enhancing Our Competitive Position
Source: PotashCorp
2014 2015F 2016F0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8Rocanville New Brunswick
Slide#16
Operational Capability - Million Tonnes (KCl)
• Expansion construction to be finalized on two remaining projects to support approximately 18 million tonnes of nameplate capacity
• Rocanville: anticipate construction completion in 2015 with $0.3B remaining to be spent. Expect to add ~3 million tonnes of incremental lower-cost capability once fully ramped up
• New Brunswick: anticipate construction completion in late 2014 with $0.3B remaining to be spent. To improve delivered cost position to key Latin American markets
Nitrogen
Source: PotashCorp
Gross Margin per Tonne (2013)
Portfolio of Products Leveraged to Highest Margin Products
PotashCorp Nitrogen Profile
37%
18%
45%
Ammonia Urea Solutions/NA/AN
Nitrogen Sales Volumes Mix (2013)
Ammonia Solutions/NA/AN Urea0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%Percentage of Net Sales
Slide#18
Source: PotashCorp
Ammonia Capacity*
New Ammonia Capacity Adds Margin Growth Potential
PotashCorp Nitrogen Profile
2012 2013 2016E0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5 Trinidad Augusta Lima Geismar
Million Tonnes
* All estimated capacity amounts as at beginning of year.
Highlights
• Geismar Expansion: New capacity brought on-stream in early 2013, added approximately ~$100M of incremental gross margin in 2013
• Lima Expansion: $190 million expansion anticipated to add additional ammonia (+100K mt/year) and urea capacity (+80K mt/year) by late 2015.
New capacity at Lima also anticipated to help grow higher-margin DEF capability and supply lower cost ammonia to Aurora
Slide#19
Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp
Q4-10
Q4-11
Q4-12
Q4-13
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8 Trinidad Gas* US Gas
Gross Margin – US$ Millions
US Facilities Benefitting From Low Gas Cost; Trinidad Relative Position Improving
Nitrogen Gross Margin by Country
Gas Cost – US$ Per MMBtu
2010 2011 2012 20130
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200 Trinidad US
Slide#20
* Estimate based on Tampa ammonia priced divided by 100. Actual price based on specific contract, which may vary slightly.
Phosphate
Source: Company Reports, PotashCorp
Industrial and Feed Products Provide Flexibility and Enhance Stability in Phosphate
PotashCorp Phosphate Profile
Slide#22
PotashCorp Gross Margin by Category
Feed & Industrial Fertilizer0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Percentage of Net Sales (2013)
PotashCorp Mosaic* Agrium* CF*0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%Feed & Industrial Fertilizer
Phosphate Product Mix
* Based on most recently reported 12-month sales volume totals as per publicly available data
Percentage
Production - Million Tonnes (P2O5)
Optimizing P2O5 Production Portfolio; Well Positioned to Meet Customer Needs
Enhancing Our Competitive Position
Source: PotashCorp
• Focus on improving efficiency and optimizing production portfolio
• Close Suwannee River chemical plant – one of two plants at White Springs
• Net reduction of P2O5 (after offset from higher operating rates at Aurora) is ~215,000 tonnes;
• No expected impact to customers given ability to flex production of end products
2013 2014E 2015E0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5 Aurora White Springs Geismar
Slide#23
Anticipate Additional Cost Reductions and Efficiencies in 2014
Enhancing Our Competitive Position
Source: PotashCorp
Slide#24
2012 2013 2014F150
250
350
450
550US$ Per Product Tonne
Costs of Goods Sold
• Greater efficiency and improved procurement practices expected to reduce costs in 2014• Reduced workforce levels expected to improve
cost structure
• Mining efficiencies (course ore recovery in Aurora) lowering rock costs
• Optimizing sulfur sourcing points and freight terms to reduce delivered cost
• Lower ammonia prices and shifting sales mix away from more ammonia intensive fertilizer products
Creating Shareholder Value
Source: PotashCorp
PotashCorp Total Capital Spending**
CAPEX Spending Largely Complete
PotashCorp’s Opportunity
93%
7%
Completed Remaining
PotashCorp Potash Projects Estimated Capital Spending*
US$ Billions
Slide#26
* As at December 31, 2013. Includes both debottleneck and expansion spending.
** Cash additions to property, plant and equipment per cash flow statement (2006-2013)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
Utilizing Strong Cash Flow to Enhance Long-term Shareholder Returns
PotashCorp’s Opportunity
* Dividends declared each quarter** $0.10 per share dividend adjusted for 3 for 1 stock split; rounded to nearest cent.
Source: Bloomberg, PotashCorp
5 PercentShare Repurchase
ProgramAnnounced July 24, 2013 (up to $2 billion through August 1, 2014)
POT AGU MOS CF IPI0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
4.2%
3.4%
2.1%
1.7%
0.0%
Percent Yield*
Slide#27
* Indicated yield percentage as per Bloomberg at February 20, 2014.
Q4-10**
Q1-11
Q2-11
Q3-11
Q4-11
Q1-12
Q2-12
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
Q4-13
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
$0.35
$0.40
$0.03
$0.35
Dividend* per Share – US$
950% Increase
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