Post-Processing at DWD Post-Processing at DWD Sebastian Trepte (FEZE) Grid-based forecasts COSMO,...
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Transcript of Post-Processing at DWD Post-Processing at DWD Sebastian Trepte (FEZE) Grid-based forecasts COSMO,...
Post-ProcessingPost-Processing at DWD at DWD Sebastian Trepte (FEZE)
• Grid-based forecasts COSMO, GME
- derived products (thunderstorm ind., weather-related elements, vorticity, advection of temperature, …)- cross-sections through model domain- meteograms at selected grid points- prognostic temps at selected grid points
COSMO General Meeting, WG 4 post-processing methods, 8.9.2009
COSMO-EU, COSMO-DE, GME, IFS (ECMWF)
• Grid-based or rural district based probability forecasts
- COSMO-DE interpretation (smoothing/calibration: Neighbourhood method)- SRNWP-PEPS (Ensemble of 23 European regional models incl. COSMO-EU)- BlitzMOS (GME, Germany)- WarnMOS (GME and IFS, Germany)
• Object-related forecasts
- CellMOS (GME, Germany)
COSMO General Meeting, WG 4 post-processing methods, 8.9.2009
Location forecasts
• DMO → stations (COSMO-EU, GME)
- transformation into time series “optimized” DMO (site-specific properties altitude, mountain, coast, sea, …)
• OOG (Objective Optimized Guidance)
- model combination and weighting (MOS, COSMO-EU, -DE, GME, IFS)- corrections for model deficiencies: nowcasting systems, current observations
COSMO General Meeting, WG 4 post-processing methods, 8.9.2009
• AutoSWIS (Road Weather Information System)
- forecasts of weather and road surface conditions (MOS, COSMO-EU, GME) energy balance model (observations at stations and automatic systems
at the roads)
• Aviation-related products
- MOS-AUTOTAF (GME, Germany+)- Toptherm
intensity of thermal lift (COSMO-EU vertical profiles, temperature, wind, humidity, radiation and precipitation)
- ADWICEAdvanced diagnostic and warning system for aircrafticing environments (COSMO-EU, observations, radar)
Location forecasts (cont.)
COSMO General Meeting, WG 4 post-processing methods, 8.9.2009
Standard Model Output Statistics (MOS) at DWDStandard Model Output Statistics (MOS) at DWD
Model forecasts(long-term time series)
Observations at stations(long-term time series)
Multiple Linear Regression(minimize RMSE)
MOS coefficients
Dev
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MOS forecast
Ope
ratio
nal
fore
cast
currentmodel forecasts
currentobservations
MOS approaches at DWDMOS approaches at DWD
• Station data (Standard MOS) GME-MOS IFS-MOS MOSMIX (mixing of IFS- and GME-MOS) AUTOTAF (forecasts for airports based on GME-MOS)
• Station data to rural districts WarnMOS (weather warning guidance based on GME and IFS)
• At grid points BlitzMOS (lightnings and thunderstorms)
• At moving systems CellMOS (thunderstorm detecting and tracking)
Kind of MOS forecasts:
• Deterministic• Probabilistic• Derived elements (e.g. weather conditions)