Post-Emergency, multi-hazard health risk...

ECHO/SUB/2015-713844-PREV11 - PEC: Post-Emergency, multi-hazard health risk assessment in Chemical disastersProject co-funded by ECHO - Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection

Greetings!Welcome to the third newsletter of the PEC project. This issue covers the period from January 2017 to June 2017 and gives you an overview of the progress we have made in our study of multi-hazard health risk assessment in chemical disasters.Your engagement is very important to us. Therefore, we would like to encourage all interested parties and stakeholders to support us in our endeavour and to constructively collaborate in achieving the study results for the benefit of the society as a whole. We hope that you will find this information useful and we are looking forward to hearing your feedback.

Task B is now complete Task B - «Effect on the construction system» focused on structural models and aimed at delivering seismic fragility analysis techniques, defining the susceptibility of the structures included in plants, estimating the fragility related to disasters, evaluating possible damages by critical structures and infrastructures in the event of terroristic attacks and mapping out contamination related to damages in the event of earthquake, flooding and terroristic attacks. Actions B.1, B.2 and B.3 were successfully completed and highlighted in the previous newsletter, while the fourth one has been finalized in this semester. You may have a look at the current results of this Task below.

Multi-hazard contamination risk mapThe objective of Action B.4 “Multi-hazard contamination risk map” was the

Post-Emergency, multi-hazard health risk assessment in Chemical disasters

Contentsn Greetings!

n Task B• Multi-hazard contamination risk

map

n Task C• Dispersion of toxic compounds

in the structures and in the environment

• Human exposure to toxic chemicals

• Post-incident environmental and biological monitoring

n Task D• Short-term health effects

n Task F• PCM Meeting• Technical Report

n PEC publicationsn Task G – Publicity

• Dissemination Events• 19th MESAEP Symposium

n Contact us

June 2017


development of a methodology to work out a “multi-hazard contamination risk map” that allows describing the risk, associated to equipment of analysed chemical plants, caused by all the identified initiating events.Particularly, the work has been based on the results of deliverables DB.1 “Seismic risk assessment”, DB.2 “Flood risk assessment” and DB.3 “Man-made risk assessment” where the likelihood of potential loss of containment scenarios, caused by the occurrence of internal (corrosion, mechanical defect, process deviation) or external events (terrorist attack, flood, earthquake) has been assessed and evaluated. These frequencies are combined together with the effects of each analysed release of toxic compound in order to build a specific risk value and develop a risk priority map. The latter combines the event occurrence probability to the damage level considering the critical component of the plants included in the sample area. This damage level is connected to the potential leakage and dispersion of chemicals in the surrounding environment. This has been done by the following activities: prioritization of risks based on the Risk Priority Number (RPN) index, which underlines the riskiness within the process for multi-hazards. Here, risks characterized by high RPN levels are prioritized in light of the following considerations: risks already occurred (risks with an important impact or with real or potentially relevant consequences); risks which have never occurred but which might potentially occur considering the ongoing operational risks (the probability that these risks occur rises higher as higher is the frequency of the actions that may generate such risks). In such a way, a global esteem (mapping) of the actual state of the risk has been provided accounting for both natural and man-made hazards.

Man Made

Earthquake

Flood

Environmental dispersion

Fire event Structural damages

Mechanical impact

Figure 1 - Map of potential cascading event sequences.

Figure 2 - Example of probabilistic and logistic conditioning.

PEC-ECHO Newsletter | Issue 3


Task C is underwayTask C “Dispersion of Toxic Elements and population exposure” focuses on the dispersion of toxic compounds in the environment and to assess human short-term and long-term exposure to toxic chemicals. This task includes the development of the PEC integrated computational platform for exposure estimation and health impact assessment. Overall, the first three deliverables (DC.1, DC.2 and DC.3) were successfully completed whereas the others two (DC.4 and DC.5) are in the process of completion. You may have a look at the current results of this Task below.

Dispersion of toxic compounds in the structures and in the environmentAction C.1 “Dispersion of toxic compounds in the structures and in the environment” focuses on the evaluation of dispersion of toxic compounds in the environment. Simulation of accidental continuous, transient, instantaneous or catastrophic release of toxic and/or flammable material was modelled through a modelling approach consisting of a two-step procedure: first the evaporation into the atmosphere (in the case of releases of contaminants released in liquid phase) was assessed through the application of an evaporation model, then the atmospheric dispersion was estimated through both a Gaussian atmospheric dispersion model implemented in MATLAB® as well as through the US-EPA ALOHA® hazard modeling software to derive air concentration levels of chemicals in the area surrounding the incident and identified the realistic risk zone maps corresponding to defined thresholds.The chemical accidents simulated are resulting from different natural and man-made events including floods, earthquakes and terrorist attacks. The damage of the plant infrastructures can result into either catastrophic or partial events depending on the type of accident. A thorough meteorological characterization of the study area has been performed to identify the most common meteorological conditions for both the cold (winter) and the warm (summer) season.Modelling results are displayed using Google earth application showing with different color codes the toxic plumes isolines corresponding to different concentration levels (ppm) over the study area.

Figure 3 - Concentration field of Benzene in gas phase following a catastrophicaccident of Heavy Gasoline Stripper during the Winter Season.

Figure 4 - Concentration field of acrylonitrile in liquid phase following a catastrophicaccident of acrylonitrile storage tank during summer season.



The same results were also uploaded on the PEC Web-GIS, an open GIS platform developed to display and to communicate data and results to the scientific community, stakeholders and citizens.

Figure 5 - Dispersion modelling results displayed in the PEC Web-GIS platform.

Human exposure caused by the toxic chemicals Action C2 “Human exposure caused by the toxic chemicals” focuses on assessment of human exposure to toxic chemicals in the short (acute) and long (chronic) term. To this aim we made use of the INTEGRA platform which includes a multi-route exposure module and a physiology-based toxicokinetic (PBTK) modelling to estimate internal doses of parent chemicals and metabolites in human target tissues both in the short term and long term period. Depending on the physical/chemical properties of the toxic compounds exposure routes may involve inhalation, dermal and ingestion. Internal doses of toxic chemicals in human target tissues have been modelled using innovative in silico methods (PBTK modelling) taking into account the long-term potential contamination of different environmental media after the incident (based on the physicochemical properties and degradation rates of the contaminants).

Figure 6 - Schematic representation of the exposure routes considered in human exposure.




Figure 7 - The generic PBTK model (parent compound and 3 metabolites).

Figure 8 - Internal dose lifetime increment (%) under various exposure levels for adults after a chemical accident.

Post-incident environmental and biological monitoringAction C.3 “Post-incident environmental and biological monitoring” aims at evaluating post-incident contamination levels. The main objective of this Action was to provide recommendations and best practices on the appropriate methods to be used in real world situations to measure ambient concentrations of the four chemicals addressed in the PEC project (i.e. benzene, acrylonitrile, cadmium and arsenic) as well as recommendations on biomarkers to be considered to assess human exposure to the above chemicalsIn summary, exposure to benzene and acrylonitrile is recommended to be estimated through exhaled breath while exposure to arsenic and cadmium is suggested to be assessed by ICP-MS analysis of urinary samples. Both exhaled breath and urine measurements provided estimates of the body burden of benzene-acrylonitrile and cadmium-arsenic irrespective of the pathways of absorption (inhalation, dermal contact, food ingestion).Additionally, the report provides the best practices for sample collection, pre-treatment and storage of biological and environmental samples as well as the recommended analytical methods to be used for lab analysis of the collected samples (Figure 9).

Development of integrated computational platformThe Alpha version of integrated computational platform has been developed and it is currently in the testing stage. The platform is modular web-based computational platform supported by a GIS to assist users to interpret different types of data in order to perform risk analysis arising from accidental toxics releases following chemical disasters. The PEC computational platform covers the full chain from chemical releases to health impact allowing to move forward from the classical epidemiological methodology towards a biologically-based mechanistic approach.The platform encompasses two main components: the computational module and the WebGIS system. The computational


module is based on the INTEGRA platform and it has been designed and developed to assist users in the exposure assessment of compounds in different environmental media covering a wide chemical space. The main aim of the Web-GIS system is to display both input data used for the multi-hazard assessment and platform results. The latter include: environmental contamination, exposure, health impact along with information about seismic, flooding and anthropogenic hazards and risks (e.g. fragility curves).

Task D is UnderwayTask D - ‘Toxicological effects and public health consequences’ focuses on the estimation of the acute and chronic health impacts on the general population and on the plant workers due to exposure to Benzene, Acrylonitrile, Arsenic and Cadmium, released into the environment following chemical accidents. Action D.1 “Short-term health effects” was successfully completed whereas Action D.2 ” Long-term risks to public health” is underway. You may have a look at the preliminary results of this Task below.

Short-term health effectsAction D.1 ‘Short-term health effects’ focuses on acute health impacts of the simulated accidental chemical release. Health impacts have been estimated in various population groups (general population vs. workers) further stratified by gender and age. Chemical concentration maps, predicted exposure profiles and internal target-organ doses derived from Task C have been used to determine the toxic response to the population and workers. Acute toxicity was evaluated in accordance with empirical principles of evidence-based emergency medicine and human toxicology, based on recognition of general clinical syndromes. Table in the next page shows an example of acute (short-term) health effects on the plant workers following the damage of the “Heavy Gasoline Stripper” in Plant A during the winter season.

Task F is underwayTask F - “Management and reporting to the commission” focuses on the action referred to project management activities and reporting to commission. The aim of this task has been met by EUCENTRE by coordinating and supervising project activities, carrying out administrative and financial management of the project activities. The project has been coordinated by Eucentre (EUC) and managed by a Project Managing Committee (PMC) composed by the Coordinator (Chair the Committee) and all Tasks Leaders.

PCM MeetingAll the programmed technical and coordination meetings were held between the partners in order to discuss, assess and implement decisions, which have ensured the proper technical progress of the project. The first PCM meeting was held in Pavia at the Eucentre premises in conjunction with the Kick-Off meeting of the project on February 2016. The Coordinator has organised 2nd PCM meeting on 27 October 2016 with all the partners at Conference hall of EUCENTRE, Pavia, Italy. Twelve (12) participants representing the PEC consortium attended the meeting, presented the work for which they were assigned and discussed about the workplan for the second year of the project.


Figure 9 - Schematic of sample collection and pretreatment and storageprior to delivery of the samples the laboratory that performs the analysis.

The third PCM meeting has been held in Pavia at the Eucentre premises on 13 January 2017. In the meeting, project partners defined the strategies of project monitoring and internal reporting. Progress results were assessed and discussed and specific technical issues were clarified. In addition to face-to-face meetings, we made an extensive use of communications through electronic media (teleconferences and web based tools). This is to minimize the burden of travelling, to save budget, and to allow for speedy consultation, which may be sufficient to help work out an effective way forward.

Figure 12 PEC PCM Meeting at EUCENTRE, Pavia, Italy on 13 January 2017

Technical Report The second interim technical and financial report was submitted to the European Commission according to the timeplan.



Concentration (ppm)

Number of workers involved

Clinical manifestations

Level of disability (Tier and emergency

intervention) 0.1-1 28 (22 M, 6 F) No medical problems - 1-2.5 15 (12 M, 3 F) No medical problems - 2.5-5 14 (11 M, 3 F) No medical problems - 5-10 18 (14 M, 4 F) No medical problems - 10-25 39 (31 M, 8 F) Mild skin and ocular irritation (1): Can be managed at the

pre-hospital level 25-52 51 (41 M, 10 F) Transient systemic alterations, primarily

nausea, mild drowsiness and headache (1): Can be managed at the pre-hospital level

52-100 27 (22 M, 5 F) Drowsiness, dizziness, headache, initial mental status alterations (e.g. euphoria), pronounced mucous membrane, skin, eye, nose, pulmonary irritation

(2): Require admission to hospital

100-300 20 (16 M, 4 F) Pronounced drowsiness preceded by excitatory symptoms, staggering, weakness, impaired ability to take protective action

(2): Require admission to hospital

300-800 6 (5 M, 1 F) Excitatory symptoms followed drowsiness, staggering, impaired ability to take protective action, palpitations, tightness of the chest, blurring vision

(3): Require prompt hospitalization and intensive care support in subjects presenting neurological and cardiac alterations

800-1,000 1 (1M, 0 F) CNS depression, loss of consciousness, arrhythmias, shallow and rapid respiration, signs of pneumonitis, lethality in the most susceptible individuals

(4): Require on site stabilization and resuscitation measures

1,000-4,000 2 (2 M, 0 F) Severe CNS depression, coma, paralysis, convulsions, non-cardiogenic pulmonary edema, lethality


> 4,000 1 (1 M, 0 F) As above, rapid deterioration and loss of physiological function, lethality


PEC PublicationsClick on the titles to download the project reports:• Deliverable B4 - Multi-hazard contamination risk map• Deliverable C1 - Dispersion of toxic compounds in the structures and in the environment• Deliverable C2 - Human exposure to toxic chemicals • Deliverable C3 - Post-incident environmental and biological monitoring• Deliverable D1 - Short-term health effects Or visit www.pec-echo.eu for all downloadable material.

Task G – PublicityA number of dissemination and communication events took place in this semester. You may have a look at the relevant information below.On 30 May 2017, Dr M. Cademartori provided an oral presentation entitled “Seismic Risk Assessment of Industrial Equipment” at an internal seminar where the work done, in the frame of the PEC project to derive fragility curves of different plant items in relation to a seismic event, was illustrated.In June 2017, TU-Delft published a scientific article entitled “Fragility assessment of chemical storage tanks subject to floods” on the journal Process Safety and Environmental Protection. The paper reports a new methodology based on load-resistance relationships to assess the vulnerability of plant facilities in form of fragility functions which was completed under the frame of the PEC project. On June 18-22, 2017 TU-Delft gave a presentation entitled “Fragility Assessment of Chemical Plants to Floods” at the 27th annual European Safety and Reliability Conference at ESREL in Portoroz, Slovenia where the PEC methodology to derive flood-induced fragility functions of chemical facilities was illustrated. In addition, a paper entitled “Vulnerability of industrial plants to flood-induced Natechs: A Bayesian network approach” was submitted to the journal Reliability Engineering & System Safety in April 2017. The paper discusses the methodology based on physical reliability models and Bayesian network applied in PEC to assess the fragility (probability of failure) of industrial plants to floods.

19th MESAEP Symposium

A special scientific session of PEC focusing on “natural and man-made environmental disasters” will be organized within the Mediterranean Scientific Association for Environmental Protection International (MESAEP) Symposium from the 4th of October to the 6th of October 2017 at the CNR Headquarters in Rome, Italy.

On the website, you can find information about the structure of the project, methods, workplan and links to the partners. There is also a section with all project results, such as deliverables, published papers and presentations. There you can find the project flyer as well as the dissemination and results exploitation plan. Finally, there is a news and events section where announcements of key scientific events (e.g. workshops, conferences) are reported.



www.pec-echo.eu

http://www.pec-echo.eu/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/PEC-deliverable-G.3_final_Def.pdf

http://www.pec-echo.eu/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/PEC-deliverable-G.2_final.pdf


The website is continuously updated with the latest news and deliverables. If you have any documents you would like to have available or would like to add on the PEC website, please do not hesitate to contact us on [email protected].

Next IssueThe next issue will feature other news and documents developed by the PEC Consortium covering the period from 1 July 2017 – to 31 December 2017.

Contact usWe want to hear from you! Please do not hesitate to send us your feedback, comments or questions on [email protected].


June 2017.03

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