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Positivity as a Predictor ofStudent Retention

PNAIRP Conference PresentationMonday, Oct. 4, 2010

Joe Montgomery, Ph.D.Dean for Institutional Effectiveness

Columbia Basin College

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Retention as a Major Concern for Colleges

• Considerable resources are devoted to reducing student attrition: Counseling/Advising First Year Introduction (FYI) Probation programs Tutor Center Student Support Services Faculty involvement• Nonetheless, fall-to-fall retention is about 50%• Four-year graduation rates at around 30%• Even lower retention rates for students enrolled in dev math • Studies of student attrition often find that work responsibilities and financial issues contribute to some students leaving– but not all. These factors aren’t under college control• There is definitely a need for greater understanding of student attrition and effective interventions

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Definition of Positive Psychology

• “Scientific study of optimal human functioning”• P.P. helps people develop qualities that lead to greater fulfillment for themselves and others• Main dimensions:

- Positive emotions and subjective states, constructive thoughts, optimism, hope

- Positive individual traits (e.g., courage, persistence, honesty, wisdom)- Positive institutions (e.g., healthy families, work environments, positive communities)

• Shifting attention from alleviating human suffering (medical model) to cultivating human flourishing• Why is this of interest to us in IR?

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Positivity

• Defined by Fredrickson as moments of positive emotion thatquickly come and go (fits in with first dimension of PP)

• Occurs when we feel connected to others, loved, playful, joyful, creative, excited. Includes emotions of love, joy, gratitude, serenity, interest, inspiration• Positivity is the building block for her “Broaden and Build “theory

- With more positivity we feel good- Positive affect changes how our mind works–literally! We are

smarter, more creative, more open to new ideas etc.- Builds our resources for the future– new skills, interests, better relationships, greater resilience- Blocks negativity, reduces negative symptoms of stress (e.g., reduces blood pressure)- “Tipping point” effect: our lives dramatically improve when “Positivity ratio” exceeds 3/1- We can take charge of an increase our positivity; noticing when it occurs is a big first step

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PositivityLevel Feelings Mood Physical

Condition Intelligence Creativity Personal Relations Resilience Long-Term Trend

Positivity ratio > 3.0; tipping

point exceeded.

Very positive, optimistic

Very positive

Feel strong & fit, body feels great,

resistant to illness

Bright, quick, sharp, rapid

recall

Apply learning in new

contexts, new/unique thoughts and

ideas

Very warm, outgoing,

welcoming

Rapid recovery from negative events, losses

“Broaden and Build”: Positive

Spiral, “Flourishing”

Positivity ratio < 1.0,

approaching 0.

Very depressed, highly anxious, acute sadness

Very negative

Major illnesses, lasting insomnia,

painful joints, back injury, headaches,

poor vision

Very slow to understand,

respond; poor memory

No new ideas, can’t apply learning to

new contexts

Hostile, antagonistic

Failure to recover from

negative events, losses

“Fight or Flight”: Negative Spiral,“Languishing”

Fredrickson’s Broaden and Build Model

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ALL RIGHT, WHO CHOSE WHO WE STAND BY? I HAVE STANDARDS.

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CAN YOU BELIEVE WHAT THIS DUDE LOOKS LIKE WET? HA HA HA

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Link Between Broaden and Build and Retention

Hypothesis:Positivity is associated with many positive outcomes, including creativity, expanded awareness, greater intelligence, favorable relationships.Consequently, students high in Positivity should perceive collegeas being less difficult, more rewarding, have more positive perceptionsof the college, and should perceive fewer barriers to their education. Students higher in Positivity should be more likely to stay in school, graduate/transfer, and report more satisfaction with their education, as compared to low Positivity students.

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CBC Student Survey 7 main sections, 124 items (mostly 5-point Likert-type items)Part I. Student Education and Learning A. Educational activities (e.g., class participation, integrating ideas from multiple sources, working with other students, etc.) B. Educational experiences (items related to faculty teaching style, class discussion, higher-level thinking, etc.)– items derived from Ken Bain’s book What the best college teachers doPart II. Educational and Personal Growth– Personal Development (how much CBC has prepared them to transfer, provided a broad education, prepared them for employment)Part III. CBC as an Institution (able to enroll in desired classes, placement, advising, Resource Center, Tutor Center, cultural events)Part IV. Potential Barriers to College Success (work responsibilities, financial pressures, high school academic preparation, family support)Part V. Positivity items (taken from Fredrickson, 2009, with permission) Part VI. Overall Evaluation of Education at CBC (quality of instruction, value of education, interactions with instructors, preparation for transfer, equipment and technology, etc.)Part VII. Student Demographics (full/part time, work schedule, credits earned to date, gender, ethnic group, major, parents’ education, income, etc.)

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Positivity Scale (Fredrickson, 2009)

• Consists of 20 “Emotional Descriptors”• Students rate the “greatest amount” that they experienced each feeling within the past 24 hours, from “not at all” to “extremely”• 10 positive items. Examples include: Amused, fun-loving, silly Awe, wonder, or amazement Grateful, appreciative, or thankful Hopeful, optimistic, or encouraged• 10 negative items. Examples include: Angry, irritated, or annoyed Contemptuous, scornful, or disdainful Embarrassed, self-conscious, or blushing• Available online at www.positivityratio.com/single.php • Her approach to scoring: count positive items rated 2 or higher (P), count negative items rated 1 or higher (N), compute P/N• Goal is to exceed the “tipping point” of 3.0

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Comments on Scoring Positivity Scale

• Fredrickson’s scoring procedure is puzzling– she takes interval-level data (from Likert items) and converts them to simple counts (nominal scale), thus losing lots of information•I added my own scoring procedure– after establishing strong internal consistency reliability, computed summative score for Positive and Negative items, ratio of Positive/Negative and compared these values with Fredrickson’s measure • Reliability results:

Positive Items: Alpha= 0.89Negative Items: Alpha= 0.84All Items: 0.77Note: reliability values for each section of the Student survey exceeded 0.70

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Correlation of Positivity Measures with Survey Dimensions

Survey Dimension: Mean: Ed. Activities

Mean: Perceptions of

Faculty

Mean: Educational &

Personal Growth

Mean: CBC as an Institution

Mean: Barriers to

College Success

Total Score r 0.129 0.160 0.156 0.088 0.092p-value 0.002 0.0001 0.0001 0.04 0.03

N 579 571 577 574 574

Positive Total r 0.162 0.191 0.216 0.188 -0.176p-value 0.0001 0.000001 0.000001 0.000001 0.000001

N 570 566 569 568 569

Negative Total r -0.015 -0.002 -0.038 -0.095 0.336p-value NS NS NS 0.02 0.000001

N 579 571 577 574 572

Pos/Neg Ratio r 0.127 0.167 0.179 0.206 -0.327p-value 0.002 0.000001 0.000001 0.000001 0.000001

N 570 566 569 568 569

Fredrickson's P ratio r 0.108 0.105 0.116 0.164 -0.217

p-value 0.01 0.01 0.006 0.0001 0.000001N 554 546 552 549 547

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1. Work responsibilities

2. Financial pressures

3. A physical disability

4. Insufficient financial assistance college

5. Weak high school prep

6. Difficulty completing math

7. Poor physical health

8. Feelings of depression, anxiety

9. Inadequate financial assistance family

10. Difficulty connecting with faculty

11. Lack of family encouragement

12. Limited English

13. Family responsibilities

Mean Pos Items

r -.062 -.105* -.070 -.099* -.127** -.065 -.127** -.253** -.104* -.101* -.176** -.057 -.101*

p-value NS .013 NS .019 .003 NS .003 .000 .014 .017 .000 NS .018

Mean Neg Items

r .128** .154** .156** .146** .192** .208** .173** .405** .237** .298** .267** .117** .148**

p-value .002 .000 .000 .001 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .006 .000

Positivity Ratio (Likert)

r -.130** -.180** -.134** -.170** -.189** -.175** -.176** -.397** -.229** -.264** -.280** -.108* -.170**

p-value .002 .000 .002 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .000 .012 .000

Positivity Ratio (Fredrickson)

r -.068 -.080 -.061 -.089* -.125** -.164** -.121** -.264** -.148** -.209** -.202** -.075 -.097*

p-value NS NS NS .039 .004 .000 .005 .000 .001 .000 .000 NS .025

Correlations Between Positivity Measures and Barriers to Education

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Barriers to Educational Success

Barriers to Education Mean St. Dev.

2. Financial pressures 3.54 1.18

1. Work Responsibilities 3.34 1.14

4.Financial assistance: college 2.81 1.22

13. Family responsibilities 2.72 1.3

6. Difficulty completing math 2.56 1.29

5. Weak high school prep. 2.51 1.21

9. Financial help: family 2.48 1.26

10. Connecting with faculty 2.48 1.07

8. Depression, anxiety 2.45 1.24

3. A physical disability 2.05 1.06

7. Poor physical health 2.02 1.02

11. Family encouragement 1.92 1

12. Limited English ability 1.64 0.95

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11.5

22.5

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1515

Emotional Descriptors: MeanStd. Dev.

1. Amused, fun-loving, or silly 3.38 1.102. Angry, irritated, or annoyed 2.60 1.163. Ashamed, humiliated, or disgraced 1.60 0.974. Awe, wonder, or amazement 2.36 1.175. Contemptuous, scornful, or disdainful 1.50 0.886. Disgust, distaste, or revulsion 1.47 0.867. Embarrassed, self-conscious, or blushing 1.92 1.128. Grateful, appreciative, or thankful 3.61 1.129. Guilty, repentant, or blameworthy 1.64 1.0010. Hate, distrust, or suspicion 1.60 0.9811. Hopeful, optimistic, or encouraged 3.47 1.1112. Inspired, uplifted, or elevated 3.16 1.2313. Interested, alert, or curious 3.34 1.1514. Joyful, glad, or happy 3.53 1.1315. Love, closeness, or trust 3.46 1.2616. Proud, confident, or self-assured 3.33 1.1617. Sad, downhearted, or unhappy 2.10 1.1718. Scared, fearful, or afraid 1.79 1.1119. Serene, content, or peaceful 2.93 1.1920. Stressed, nervous, or overwhelmed 3.14 1.31Mean for Emotional Descriptor Items 2.60 0.50Mean for Positive Items 3.24 0.85Mean for Negative Items 1.97 0.72

Part V. Emotional Well-Being Items

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1. A

mus

ed, f

un-lo

ving

, or s

illy

4. A

we,

won

der,

or a

maz

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8. G

rate

ful,

appr

ecia

tive,

or t

hank

ful

11. H

opef

ul, o

ptim

istic,

or e

ncou

rage

d

12. I

nspi

red,

upl

ifted

, or e

leva

ted

13. I

nter

este

d, a

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, or c

urio

us

14. J

oyfu

l, gl

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15. L

ove,

clos

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s, o

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st

16. P

roud

, con

fiden

t, or

self-

assu

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19. S

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1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

Part V. Emotional Well-Being Items

Positive Descriptors Negative Descriptors

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Likert and Fredrickson P-Ratios: Regression with Quadratic Term

Dependent Variable:Likert-Based Positivity Ratio

EquationModel Summary Parameter Estimates

R Square F df1 df2 Sig. Constant b1 b2Linear .533 621.181 1 545 .00000 1.132 .263Quadratic .640 483.704 2 544 .00000 .564 .665 -.042Exponential .433 416.293 1 545 .00000 1.119 .144

• Y= .564+ .665*Fred+ (-.042*Fred-squared)

• Fredrickson’s 3.0 tipping point corresponds to 2.18 0n the Likert-based P ratio

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Positivity Ratio Count Pct Cum Pct<1.5 211 36.89 36.89

1.5 to 2 119 20.80 57.692 to 2.5 103 18.01 75.702.5 to 3 65 11.36 87.063 to 3.5 42 7.34 94.413.5 to 4 16 2.80 97.204 to 4.5 12 2.10 99.30

> 4.5 4 0.70 100.00Total 572 100.00

<1.5 1.5 to 2 2 to 2.5 2.5 to 3 3 to 3.5 3.5 to 4 4 to 4.5 > 4.50

50

100

150

200

250

Positivity Ratio Distribution

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Summary/Conclusions

• Fredrickson’s Broaden and Build Theory suggests that students low in positivity may be at a cognitive and emotional disadvantage in terms of completing their education, hence more likely to drop out • Students with higher ratings on negative affect items and lower P ratios perceived greater barriers to educational success• Within the Barriers scale, the P-ratio and Neg. Emotions correlated with “difficulty completing the math requirement”, “feelings of depression and anxiety”, “inadequate financial support from my family”, “difficulty connecting with the faculty”, “lack of family support, encouragement”• Implications: early identification of those low on “P” and establishing interventions may reduce the risk of dropping out • 2010 cohort study: longitudinal tracking of students, following initial Psychological Well-Being assessment

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Appendix

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Age GroupPositivity Measure: < 20 20-24 25-29 30-39 40+Positive Item Mean 3.21 3.31 3.10 3.15 3.44Negative Item Mean 2.04 2.00 1.93 1.83 1.83Difference 1.21 1.34 1.23 1.32 1.61Pos/ Neg 1.78 1.95 1.87 1.94 2.28Fred. p ratio 2.15 2.79 2.88 2.92 3.01

n 163 206 87 66 39

Positive Item Mean

Negative Item Mean

Difference Pos/ Neg Fred. p ratio1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

< 2020-2425-2930-3940+

Positivity Results by Age Group

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Parents Who Attended CollegePositivity Measure: Mother Father Both NeitherPositive Item Mean 3.34 3.11 3.24 3.24

Negative Item Mean 1.98 1.98 1.99 1.95

Difference 1.40 1.13 1.28 1.32

Pos/ Neg 1.97 1.78 1.87 1.96

Fred. p ratio 2.66 2.55 2.54 2.75

n 84 63 191 218

Positive Item Mean

Negative Item Mean

Difference Pos/ Neg Fred. p ratio1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

MotherFatherBothNeither

Positivity Results by Parent Education

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Ethnic Group

Positivity Measure: Asian Hispanic White Decline

Positive Item Mean 3.50 3.43 3.19 2.97Negative Item Mean 2.11 1.98 1.95 1.85Difference 1.39 1.45 1.28 1.12Pos/ Neg 1.90 1.99 1.91 1.74Fred. p ratio 2.34 2.71 2.67 2.10

n 21 118 352 26

Positive Item Mean

Negative Item Mean

Difference Pos/ Neg Fred. p ratio1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

AsianHispanicWhiteDecline

Positivity Results by Ethnic Group

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Income Group

Positivity Measure:

< $16215

$16216- $21855

$21856- $27465

$27-466- $33075

$33076-38685

$38686- $44295

$44296- $49905

$49906- $55515

$55516 or more

Positive Item Mean 3.27 3.13 3.31 3.09 3.36 3.30 3.27 3.11 3.25

Negative Item Mean

2.17 1.88 1.94 1.83 1.85 1.81 1.76 2.03 1.94

Difference 1.15 1.29 1.37 1.27 1.51 1.50 1.56 1.19 1.30

Pos/ Neg 1.81 1.90 1.95 1.95 2.03 1.99 2.07 1.84 1.93

Fred. p ratio 2.44 2.77 2.48 2.84 2.91 2.71 2.64 2.44 2.67

n 135 63 40 37 31 32 27 26 142

Positive Item Mean

Negative Item Mean

Difference Pos/ Neg Fred. p ratio1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

< $16215$16216- $21855$21856- $27465 $27-466- $33075 $33076-38685 $38686- $44295 $44296- $49905 $49906- $55515 $55516 or more

Positivity by Income Level

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Positivity Measure: Full- time Part- timeTotal EWB 2.64 2.51Positive Item Mean 3.26 3.18Negative Item Mean 2.00 1.85Pos/ Neg 1.88 2.00Fred. p ratio 2.55 2.89

n 446 127

Positivity Results by Full vs Part Time

Positive Item Mean

Negative Item Mean

Pos/ Neg Fred. p ratio1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

Full- timePart- time

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Positivity Measure: Female MalePositive Item Mean 3.28 3.19

Negative Item Mean 1.92 2.02

Difference 1.37 1.22

Pos/ Neg 1.97 1.85

Fred. p ratio 2.75 2.54n 321 240

Positivity Results by Gender

Positive Item Mean

Negative Item Mean

Difference Pos/ Neg Fred. p ratio.00

.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

FemaleMale