Portfolio Modeling for Siting Offshore Wind Farms...Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Zana...
Transcript of Portfolio Modeling for Siting Offshore Wind Farms...Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Zana...
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Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Zana Cranmer, Erin BakerUniversity of Massachusetts, Amherst
IGERT Seminar April 2, 2015
Portfolio Modeling for Siting Offshore Wind Farms
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2Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Siting Offshore Wind Energy
Multicriteria Optimization Problem• Values• Tradeoffs• Outcomes
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Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Economics:Maximizing Profit
Part 1
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4Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Modeling Wind Farm Interactions - Economics
Barthelmie et. al. 2010; Barthelmie and Jensen 2010; Henderson et. al. 2010; Johnson et. al. 2009; Jensen 1983; Katic et. al . 1987; Nygaard 2014; Phillips et. al. 2010; Schlez and Neubert 2009; Smith et. al . 2011.
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5Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Modeling Wind Farm Interactions - Economics
Barthelmie et. al. 2010; Barthelmie and Jensen 2010; Henderson et. al. 2010; Johnson et. al. 2009; Jensen 1983; Katic et. al . 1987; Nygaard 2014; Phillips et. al. 2010; Schlez and Neubert 2009; Smith et. al . 2011.
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6Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Modeling Wind Farm Interactions - Economics
Barthelmie et. al. 2010; Barthelmie and Jensen 2010; Henderson et. al. 2010; Johnson et. al. 2009; Jensen 1983; Katic et. al . 1987; Nygaard 2014; Phillips et. al. 2010; Schlez and Neubert 2009; Smith et. al . 2011.
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7Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Network Model
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8Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Network Model
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9Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
max ∑ , ,, ∈
∑ ∑ → , :,∈ →
∑ ∑ ← , :,∈ ←
∑ ∑ ↑ , ,:̅
∈ ↑ ∑ ∑ ↓ , ,:̅
∈ ↓
, ∑ , , ∀ 1,… , ̅, , 1, , ,
, , , , , , , , ∀ 3,… , ̅
, , , , , , , , ∀ 4,… , ̅ , 2, … , 2
, , , , , , ∀ 2,… , ̅
, , , , , , ∀ 3,… , ̅
Network Model
• Objective function
• Average power value
• Network constraints
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10Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Application
LowU<6
Mid 6≤U<12
High U≥12
Total
SE 0.0659 0.0750 0.0290 0.1699
SW 0.1098 0.1858 0.0702 0.3658
NW 0.0749 0.1147 0.1008 0.2904
NE 0.0556 0.0754 0.0430 0.1740
Total 0.3061 0.4509 0.2430 1
Top Left: NREL 5MW power curveBottom Left: Wind rose for the Gulf of Maine with four wind direction bins.Table 1: Joint and marginal probabilities for three divisions of wind speed and four of wind direction. Expected wind speed of the bins is {3.76, 8.80, 15.72} m/s.
Jonkman,2009; NOAA National Data Buoy Center (NDBC)
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11Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Results
Results using Gulf of Maine distribution with three wind speeds and four directions.
Black indicates a wind farm.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
N
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12Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Results
West wind only, 8.8 m/sWind from all four cardinal directions with
equal frequency, 8.8 m/s
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
N
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13Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Results
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
West wind only, 15.72 m/s Wind from all four cardinal directions with equal frequency, 15.72 m/s
N
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14Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
ResultsResults using Gulf of Maine distribution with three wind speeds and four directions. Black indicates a wind farm.
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
N
36.58%
29.04%
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15Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Value of the Portfolio ApproachThe no planning model chooses sites for their economic value, the myopic planning
model assesses their impact on the total value of all sites.
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Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Environment:Ecological Value
Part 2
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17Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Results
0
0.05
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0.15
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0.25
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0.35
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0.45
0 1 2 3 4 5
Frac
tion
of
Loss
es R
elat
ive
to N
o R
estr
icti
ons
Number of Restricted Rows or Columns of Sites
Neighboring Columns Non-Neighboring ColumnsNeighboring Rows Non-Neighboring Rows
Losses in profit from restricting sites. Columns are perpendicular to predominant wind direction, rows are parallel to predominant wind.
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18Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Results
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0 1 2 3 4 5
Frac
tion
of
Loss
es R
elat
ive
to N
o R
estr
icti
ons
Number of Restricted Rows or Columns of Sites
Neighboring Columns Non-Neighboring ColumnsNeighboring Rows Non-Neighboring Rows
Losses in profit from restricting sites. Columns are perpendicular to predominant wind direction, rows are parallel to predominant wind.
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19Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Results
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0 1 2 3 4 5
Frac
tion
of
Loss
es R
elat
ive
to N
o R
estr
icti
ons
Number of Restricted Rows or Columns of Sites
Neighboring Columns Non-Neighboring ColumnsNeighboring Rows Non-Neighboring Rows
Losses in profit from restricting sites. Columns are perpendicular to predominant wind direction, rows are parallel to predominant wind.
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20Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Results
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0 1 2 3 4 5
Frac
tion
of
Loss
es R
elat
ive
to N
o R
estr
icti
ons
Number of Restricted Rows or Columns of Sites
Neighboring Columns Non-Neighboring ColumnsNeighboring Rows Non-Neighboring Rows
Losses in profit from restricting sites. Columns are perpendicular to predominant wind direction, rows are parallel to predominant wind.
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21Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Environmental Value
Maximize continuous open areaEcologicalValue v1
v2
v3
v4
v5
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22Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Trade Offs
Trading off between open space and profit value
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Val
ue
rela
tive
to
max
% Sites
Economic Environmental
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23Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Modeling Avian Movement
Markov model with colony, outgoing, inbound, and mortality states
Mortality state is connected to location of a wind farm
C 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1r 2r 3r 4r 5r 6r 7r 8r
M
…
…
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Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Outcomes
Part 3
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25Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Ranking Economics and Environmental
If economics > environment• Excellent wind resources• High electricity prices• High demand
If environment > economics• Sensitive habitat• Endangered or threatened species• High aesthetic value
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26Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Outcomes
Global Change Assessment Model• How does wind contribute in different scenarios?
Pacala and Socolow 2004
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27Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Acknowledgements
This work is partially supported by the NSF-sponsored IGERT: Offshore Wind Energy Engineering, Environmental Science, and Policy (Grant Number 1068864).
Thank you to my collaborators from Aalto University, Juuso Liesiö and Ahti Salo
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28Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Thank You!
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29Mechanical and Industrial Engineering
Questions?