PORTFOLIO AND SELECT COMMITTEES ON FINANCE March 2006.
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Transcript of PORTFOLIO AND SELECT COMMITTEES ON FINANCE March 2006.
PORTFOLIO AND PORTFOLIO AND SELECT SELECT
COMMITTEES ON COMMITTEES ON FINANCEFINANCE
PORTFOLIO AND PORTFOLIO AND SELECT SELECT
COMMITTEES ON COMMITTEES ON FINANCEFINANCE
March 2006
RECENT RECENT ECONOMIC ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENTSDEVELOPMENTSInternational International
EconomyEconomy
RECENT RECENT ECONOMIC ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENTSDEVELOPMENTSInternational International
EconomyEconomy
International oil price - monthly averageInternational oil price - monthly averageInternational oil price - monthly averageInternational oil price - monthly average
OECD leading indicator and industrial production
OECD leading indicator and industrial production
World economic outlook: Real GDPWorld economic outlook: Real GDPWorld economic outlook: Real GDPWorld economic outlook: Real GDP
World 5,1 4,3 4,3Advanced economies 3,3 2,5 2,7
USA 4,2 3,5 3,3Japan 2,7 2,0 2,0Euro area 2,0 1,2 1,8United Kingdom 3,2 1,9 2,2Newly industrialised Asianeconomies* 5,6 4,0 4,7
Emerging market anddeveloping countries 7,3 6,4 6,1
Africa 5,3 4,5 5,9Central and eastern Eur. 6,5 4,3 4,6Developing Asia 8,2 7,8 7,2Western hemisphere 5,6 4,1 3,8
* Includes Hong Kong SAR, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan Province of ChinaSource: IMF World Economic Outlook, September 2005
Annual percentage change in real GDPActual Projections
2004 2005 2006
World economic outlook: Consumer pricesWorld economic outlook: Consumer pricesWorld economic outlook: Consumer pricesWorld economic outlook: Consumer prices
World 3,7 3,9 3,7Advanced economies 2,0 2,2 2,0
USA 2,7 3,1 2,8Japan 0,0 -0,4 -0,1Euro area 2,1 2,1 1,8United Kingdom 1,3 2,0 1,9Newly industrialised Asianeconomies* 2,4 2,2 2,3
Emerging market anddeveloping countries 5,8 5,9 5,7
Africa 7,8 8,2 7,0Central and eastern Eur. 6,5 4,8 4,3Developing Asia 4,2 4,2 4,7Western hemisphere 6,5 6,3 5,4
* Includes Hong Kong SAR, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan Province of ChinaSource: IMF World Economic Outlook, September 2005
Annual percentage change in consumer pricesActual Projections
2004 2005 2006
Key central bank interest ratesKey central bank interest ratesKey central bank interest ratesKey central bank interest ratesPer cent
Countries 1 January 2005 10 March 2006 Latest change(Percentage points)
USA 2,25 4,50 31 Jan 2006 (+0,25)Japan 0,00 0,00 19 Mar 2001 (-0,15)Euro area 2,00 2,50 2 Mar 2006 (+0,25)United Kingdom 4,75 4,50 4 Aug 2005 (-0,25)
Canada 2,50 3,75 7 Mar 2006 (+0,25)Denmark 2,00 2,50 3 Mar 2006 (+0,25)Sweden 2,00 2,00 23 Feb 2006 (+0,25)Switzerland 0,25 – 1,25 0,50 – 1,50 15 Dec 2005 (+0,25)
Australia 5,25 5,50 2 Mar 2005 (+0,25)New Zealand 6,50 7,25 8 Dec 2005 (+0,25)Israel 3,70 4,75 23 Jan 2006 (+0,25)
China 5,58 5,58 29 Oct 2004 (+0,27)Hong Kong 3,75 6,00 1 Feb 2006 (+0,25)India 4,75 5,50 24 Jan 2006 (+0,25)Malaysia* 2,70 3,25 22 Feb 2006 (+0,25)
Key central bank interest ratesKey central bank interest ratesKey central bank interest ratesKey central bank interest ratesPer centCountries 1 January 2005 10 March 2006 Latest change
(Percentage points)
South Korea 3,25 4,00 9 Feb 2006 (+0,25)Taiwan 1,75 2,25 22 Dec 2005 (+0,125)Thailand 2,00 4,50 8 Mar 2006 (+0,25)
Brazil 17,75 16,50 8 Mar 2006 (-0,75)Chile 2,25 4,75 9 Feb 2006 (+0,25)Mexico** 8,81 7,50 24 Feb 2006 (-0,25)
Czech Republic 2,50 2,00 27 Oct 2005 (+0,25)Hungary 9,50 6,00 20 Sep 2005 (-0,25)Poland 6,50 4,00 28 Feb 2006 (-0,25)Russia 13,00 12,00 26 Dec 2005 (-1,00)South Africa 7,50 7,00 15 Apr 2005 (-0,50)
* The central bank of Malaysia introduced a new interest rate framework on 23 April 2004.** The Bank of Mexico has decided on a gradual transition toward a policy target regime, butretains the “el corto” until the transition is complete.Source: National central banks
USA: Real gross domestic productUSA: Real gross domestic productUSA: Real gross domestic productUSA: Real gross domestic product
USA: Unemployment rateUSA: Unemployment rateUSA: Unemployment rateUSA: Unemployment rate
USA: Consumer prices and central bank interest rates
USA: Consumer prices and central bank interest rates
Japan: Real gross domestic productJapan: Real gross domestic productJapan: Real gross domestic productJapan: Real gross domestic product
Japan: Unemployment rateJapan: Unemployment rateJapan: Unemployment rateJapan: Unemployment rate
Japan: Consumer pricesJapan: Consumer pricesJapan: Consumer pricesJapan: Consumer prices
Euro area: Real gross domestic productEuro area: Real gross domestic productEuro area: Real gross domestic productEuro area: Real gross domestic product
Euro area: Unemployment rateEuro area: Unemployment rateEuro area: Unemployment rateEuro area: Unemployment rate
Euro area: Consumer prices and central Euro area: Consumer prices and central bank interest ratebank interest rate
Euro area: Consumer prices and central Euro area: Consumer prices and central bank interest ratebank interest rate
UK: Real gross domestic productUK: Real gross domestic productUK: Real gross domestic productUK: Real gross domestic product
UK: UnemploymentUK: UnemploymentUK: UnemploymentUK: Unemployment
UK: Consumer prices and central bankUK: Consumer prices and central bankinterest rateinterest rate
UK: Consumer prices and central bankUK: Consumer prices and central bankinterest rateinterest rate
SADC: InflationSADC: InflationSADC: InflationSADC: Inflation
Annual percentage change in consumer prices
2004 2005 Nov 2005 Dec 2005 Jan 2005Africa 7,8 * * * *Angola 43,6 23,2 19,0 18,5 17,2Botswana 6,6 8,6 11,3 11,4 16,6Lesotho 5,0 3,4 3,4 3,5 *Malawi 11,6 15,4 16,2 16,5 16,7Madagascar 13,8 18,8 12,8 11,4 10,0Mauritius 4,3 4,9 3,6 3,9 6,0Mozambique 12,6 7,2 9,6 14,0 11,5Namibia 4,1 2,3 3,4 3,4 3,6South Africa 1,4 3,4 3,4 3,6 4,0Swaziland 3,5 * 6,2 6,3 *Tanzania 4,3 ,4 4,8 5,0 5,4Zambia 18,0 18,3 17,2 15,9 12,2Zimbabwe 350,0 266,8 502,4 585,8 613,2* Not availableSource: National central banks, unpublished Standard Bank data and IMF World Economic Outlook,September 2005
RECENT RECENT ECONOMIC ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENTDEVELOPMENTSS
National National EconomyEconomy
RECENT RECENT ECONOMIC ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENTDEVELOPMENTSS
National National EconomyEconomy
Real gross domestic productReal gross domestic productReal gross domestic productReal gross domestic product
6-year upswing
Real gross domestic product in theReal gross domestic product in thesecondary sectorsecondary sector
Real gross domestic product in theReal gross domestic product in thesecondary sectorsecondary sector
Real gross domestic expenditureReal gross domestic expenditureReal gross domestic expenditureReal gross domestic expenditure
Real final consumption expenditureReal final consumption expenditureby householdsby households
Real final consumption expenditureReal final consumption expenditureby householdsby households
Real disposable income of householdsReal disposable income of householdsReal disposable income of householdsReal disposable income of households
Household debt as percentage of disposable income of households
Household debt as percentage of disposable income of households
Real final consumption expenditure byReal final consumption expenditure bygeneral governmentgeneral government
Real final consumption expenditure byReal final consumption expenditure bygeneral governmentgeneral government
Real gross fixed capital formationReal gross fixed capital formationReal gross fixed capital formationReal gross fixed capital formation
Real gross domestic final demandReal gross domestic final demandReal gross domestic final demandReal gross domestic final demand
Change in inventoriesChange in inventoriesChange in inventoriesChange in inventories
Gross saving as percentage of grossGross saving as percentage of grossdomestic productdomestic product
Gross saving as percentage of grossGross saving as percentage of grossdomestic productdomestic product
Non-agricultural employmentNon-agricultural employmentNon-agricultural employmentNon-agricultural employment
SepSep MarMar SepSep MarMar SepSep 20032003 20042004 20042004 20052005 20052005
(000’s) (000’s) (000’s) (000’s) (000’s) (000’s) (000’s)(000’s) (000’s)(000’s)
a. Total employment 11 424 11 392 11 643 11 907 12 301b. Total unemployed (official definition) 4 434 4 415 4 135 4 283 4 487c. Total economically active = a + b 15 858 15 807 15 778 16 190 16 788d. Total not economically active 13 080 13 324 13 527 13 334 12 909e. Total aged 15-65 years = c + d 28 938 29 131 29 305 29 524 29 697f. Official unemployment rate = b * 100/c 28,0% 27,9% 26,2% 26,5% 26,7%
Source: Labour Force Survey by Statistics South Africa
Labour market statistics, based on the labour Labour market statistics, based on the labour force surveyforce survey
Labour market statistics, based on the labour Labour market statistics, based on the labour force surveyforce survey
Non-agricultural nominal remunerationNon-agricultural nominal remunerationper workerper worker
Non-agricultural nominal remunerationNon-agricultural nominal remunerationper workerper worker
Non-agricultural labour productivityNon-agricultural labour productivityNon-agricultural labour productivityNon-agricultural labour productivity
Non-agricultural nominal unit labour costNon-agricultural nominal unit labour costNon-agricultural nominal unit labour costNon-agricultural nominal unit labour cost
Nominal unit labour cost in manufacturingNominal unit labour cost in manufacturingNominal unit labour cost in manufacturingNominal unit labour cost in manufacturing
Headline inflation and CPIXHeadline inflation and CPIXHeadline inflation and CPIXHeadline inflation and CPIX
All-goods production pricesAll-goods production pricesAll-goods production pricesAll-goods production prices
Balance of payments: Current accountBalance of payments: Current account
Balance on financial account*Balance on financial account*Balance on financial account*Balance on financial account*
Financial accountFinancial accountFinancial accountFinancial account
Gross gold and other foreign reserves and international Gross gold and other foreign reserves and international liquidity position of the South African Reserve Bankliquidity position of the South African Reserve Bank
Gross gold and other foreign reserves and international Gross gold and other foreign reserves and international liquidity position of the South African Reserve Bankliquidity position of the South African Reserve Bank
Imports covered by reservesImports covered by reservesImports covered by reservesImports covered by reserves
Average net daily turnover in the SouthAverage net daily turnover in the SouthAfrican foreign exchange marketAfrican foreign exchange market
Average net daily turnover in the SouthAverage net daily turnover in the SouthAfrican foreign exchange marketAfrican foreign exchange market
Exchange rates of the randExchange rates of the randExchange rates of the randExchange rates of the rand
Growth in M3Growth in M3Growth in M3Growth in M3
Total loans and advances extended toTotal loans and advances extended toprivate sectorprivate sector
Total loans and advances extended toTotal loans and advances extended toprivate sectorprivate sector
Money-market interest ratesMoney-market interest ratesMoney-market interest ratesMoney-market interest rates
Yield on long-term government bondsYield on long-term government bondsYield on long-term government bondsYield on long-term government bonds
Yield curvesYield curvesYield curvesYield curves
Turnover in the secondary share marketTurnover in the secondary share marketTurnover in the secondary share marketTurnover in the secondary share market
Share prices - all classesShare prices - all classesShare prices - all classesShare prices - all classes
Real-estate marketReal-estate marketReal-estate marketReal-estate market
Non-financial public-sector borrowing Non-financial public-sector borrowing requirementrequirement
Non-financial public-sector borrowing Non-financial public-sector borrowing requirementrequirement