Portfolio and Investment Strategy: Targeting the Opportunities a Tough Market Presents
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Transcript of Portfolio and Investment Strategy: Targeting the Opportunities a Tough Market Presents
Portfolio and Investment Strategy: Targeting the Opportunities a
Tough Market Presents
Leandra KnesPresident and Chief Executive Officer
Chief Investment OfficerPPM America
The North American Investment Arm of Prudential Plc
▲ Founded in 1990, headquartered in Chicago▲ Manages approximately $62.3 billion in assets
– Jackson National– Prudential UK and Prudential Asia– Institutional Collateralized Bond Obligation clients– Other clients
▲ 175 total employees in Chicago and New York City
Functional Organization Structure
¹ As of June 30, 2002² As of September 30, 2002; includes assets managed through PPM America’s affiliate, PPM Finance, Inc.
We Manage a Broad Array of Fixed Income and Equity Assets
.
Prudential plc$242 Billion ¹
PPM America, Inc$62.3 Billion ²
Commercial Real Estate
Private FinanceSpecial
InvestmentsWorkouts Private Equity
Structured Financeand
CDO Management
Operations and
FinancePublic Equity
Portfolio Management/
Quantitative AnalyticsCredit Analysis
Overwhelming Majority of PPMA’s Clients are Internal
BillionsJackson National Life $ 42.8Prudential 14.4Collateralized Bond Obligations 4.1Prudential Asia 0.7Other 0.3
$ 62.3
Assets Under Management as of September 30, 2002
Centralized Credit and Portfolio Management Functions
▲ Background– Historically organized in “self sufficient” asset class
silos, with little overlap ▲ Reorganized September 2001
– Leverage analytical competitive advantage– Centralize systems– Checks and balances– Expandable
Investment Portfolio Update
Defaults Projected to Decline From Highs but Still Well Above Long-term Average
Moody’s Forecast of Default Rates
Moody's Speculative Grade Trailing 12-Month Default Rates Actual Jan. 2000 to Aug. 2002 / Forecasted Sept. 2002 to Feb. 2003
6.2%6.7%
7.1%
7.7% 7.7% 7.9%
8.5%8.8% 9.0%
9.6% 9.8%
10.5%10.7%10.5%10.3%10.3% 10.5%10.3% 10.1%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%9.3%
8.8%
9.8%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
Jan-
01
Feb
-01
Mar
-01
Apr
-01
May
-01
Jun-
01
Jul-0
1
Aug
-01
Sep
-01
Oct
-01
Nov
-01
Dec
-01
Jan-
02
Feb
-02
Mar
-02
Apr
-02
May
-02
Jun-
02
Jul-0
2
Aug
-02
Sep
-02
Oct
-02
Nov
-02
Dec
-02
Jan-
03
Feb
-03
Months
%
3.77%*
Note: *Long run annual default rate is 3.77%
Return Calculation
Implied Total Return* 6.2%
2001 Interest Earned* $2,386.2m
*Time period is 2001, JNL portfolios only
Prudential Life Funds – U.S. Fixed Interest
* Benchmark is Merrill USD Corporates Index– 80% IG (split 45% A/ 55% BBB)– 20% BIG (split 70% BB/ 30% B)– Benchmark caps issuer exposure to control concentration risk
9-30-02Year-to-Date
October 2000Since Inception
62
300
Performance
*BasisPoints
OverIndex
0
300
150
75
225
Note: These numbers are not externally audited
Portfolio Management
Brion JohnsonExecutive Vice President
Head of Public Fixed IncomePPM America
Portfolio Management
▲ Manage multiple accounts using total return, “buy and manage” and other client specific strategies
▲ Client Portfolio Managers manage relationships, articulate client objectives and optimize portfolios
▲ Asset Portfolio Managers make sector and individual credit decisions for public fixed income securities
▲ Quantitative specialists support these functions
▲ Trading transmits market information and centralizes our interactions with Wall Street
QuantitativeResearch
ClientPortfolio Managers
AssetPortfolio Managers
Trading
Portfolio ManagementBrion Johnson
President, CEO & CIOLeandra Knes
Structured to Deliver Superior Investment Performance
Investment Strategy
▲ Increase the universe of investable asset categories– Greater diversification of risks– Higher option- and risk-adjusted spreads– Replacement of interest rate risk with diversifiable risks
▲ Continue to migrate away from residential MBS investments– Less attractive from a return on capital perspective
▲ Emphasis on “value-added” investments when relative values are attractive– Commercial mortgages– Investment grade private placements– ABS and CMBS
Seeking Diversified Portfolio That Funds Liabilities Without Mismatch Risk
Investment Strategy
▲ Maintain tight restrictions on duration, convexity and liquidity▲ Refinement of the investment policy implies
– A more precise articulation of risk and return– Quantification of out of index exposures– More active portfolio management– Better articulated sales criteria
▲ Migrate high yield investments to more private high yield investments– Better historical default/recovery experience– Better covenants/monitoring ability– Maintain 8% exposure for non-investment
grade investments
Seeking Value Added Investments Won’t Take “Bet the Company” Risks
Invested Assets Mix – JNL vs. IndustryFocus is on Diversifiable Credit Risk
JNL (6/30/02) Industry (12/31/01) $38.7 Billion
3%
1%
9%
1%
9%
3%
4%
32%
12%
26%
IG - Public (AAA-A) IG - Public (BBB) IG - Private/144A (AAA-A)
IG - Private/144A (BBB) NIG - Public NIG - Private/144A
Commercial Mortgages Common & Preferred Stock Sch. BA & real estate
Cash & other assets
2%
4%
15%
9%
9% 3%
13%
3%
37%
5%
21%Total
30%Total
$15.9
$14.8
$2.7
$33.4 Billion
47.7% Highest Quality AAA to A Aaa to A AAA to A 44.3% High Quality BBB Baa BBB
5.1% Medium Quality BB Ba BB 1.7% Low Quality B B B
1.0% Lower Quality CCC to C Caa to C CCC0.3% In or near Default
Rating Equivalents
JNL’s Corporate Portfolio is Largely Investment Grade Securities
Fixed Income Securities Portfolio - Quality Distribution June 30, 2002
As of June 30, 2002
Private ABS1.9%
CMBS5.0%
Public/144a ABS6.6%
Foreign government
0.1%
Public/144a Corp.53.1%
Private Corp.11.8%
MBS21.5%
$33.4 Billion
JNL’s Corporate Portfolio is Diversified by Sector
Fixed Income Securities Portfolio - Sector Distribution
Public Corporate Investment Grade Fixed Income Portfolio (market value) JNL’s Fixed Income Portfolio is Broadly Diversified
Industry Allocation vs. Index as of 6/30/02
Energy 7.0%
Electric 7.7%
Consumer non-cyclical 8.7%
Banking 13.5%
Consumer cyclical 14.0%
Utility other0.0%
Insurance 1.5%
Natural gas 1.3% Brokerage
4.5%
Reits 4.7%
Technology 2.3%
Communications 14.9%
Finance companies 3.4%
Transportation3.4% Basic industry
5.2%
Capital goods 6.4%
Financial other 0.5%
Industrial other 1.0%
Non-corporate 0.0%
Energy 4.8%
Electric 6.5%
Consumer non-cyclical 8.3%
Banking 13.7%
Consumer cyclical 7.3%
Utility other0.0%
Insurance 2.2%
Natural gas 2.1%
Brokerage 4.2%
Reits 1.5%
Technology 1.8%
Communications 10.3%
Finance companies 11.7%
Transportation3.0%
Basic industry 3.8%
Capital goods 3.2%
Financial other 0.0%
Industrial other 0.6%
Non-corporate 15.1%
Notes:Includes commercial paper. Data is consolidated to include Jackson National of New York.
$15.6 billion
JNL’s Telecom Exposure as of 6/30/02
DESCRIPTION
JNL Consolidated
BV as of 6/30/02
JNL Consolidated
MV as of 6/30/02Unrealized Gain/(Loss)
VERIZON GLOBAL FDG CORP 211 203 (8) QWEST COMMUNICATIONS 180 113 (67) AT&T CORP 144 125 (19) VODAFONE AIRTOUCH PLC 132 142 10 TELEFONICA EUROPE BV 110 113 3 CINGULAR WIRELESS LLC 105 98 (8) TELUS CORPORATION 103 88 (15) SPRINT CAPITAL CORP 112 96 (16) AT&T WIRELESS SVCS INC 98 80 (18) BRITISH TELECOM PLC 87 86 (1)
Top 10 Telecom Exposure 1,282 1,144 (139) Other Telecom Exposure 573 439 (134) Total Telecom Exposure 1,856 1,582 (273)
Credit Analysis
Jim YoungExecutive Vice President
Chief Credit OfficerPPM America
Credit Analysis
▲ Responsible for corporate credit analysis– Investment grade – High yield – Public and private credits
▲ Specialized industry analysts – Covering all industry classifications – Across credit spectrum
▲ Analysts, on average, follow 40 credits – Fewer if issuers in an industry are
primarily high yield – Greater if primarily investment grade
Ju n io r A n a lys ts(5 a n a lys ts su p po rt a ll
in d u s try a n a lys ts)
In d u stry A na lys ts(1 3 an a lys ts d e d ica ted to th e ir
o w n spe c if ic ind u s try)
C re d it A n a lys isJ im Yo u ng
P re s ide n t, C E O & C IOL e an d ra K n es
Credit Team Organized by Industry
Rigorous Approval Process Prior to Purchase
Approval Process for New Deals
▲ Full underwriting▲ Approval by Credit Committee
– Credit Opinion: Buy Above, Buy At, Buy Below, Sell
▲ Goal is to give Portfolio Managers information to guide purchase decision
Analysts Expected to Know Credits on “Real Time” Basis
Ongoing Portfolio Monitoring
▲ Expected to know credits “real time”
▲ Semi-annual portfolio reviews
▲ Constant communication with portfolio managers and traders
JNL has largely avoided many of the largest bankruptcies
Fifteen Largest Bankruptcies From 1/1/01 to 6/30/02
▲ Names held– Adelphia: sold out prior to bankruptcy at price well above prices today– Global Crossing– McLeod– Williams Communications
▲ Names avoided (less than $5MM exposure)– NTL Communications– Enron– Finova– Pacific Gas and Electric– XO Communications– Southern California Edison– PSINET– Comdisco– Exodus Communications– KMart– Metromedia Fiber
Notes:WorldCom filed in July, 2002
Competitor Information
▲ Schedule D
▲ Holdings in stressed names
▲ Underweight power generation, airlines
Evidence Would Suggest We are Doing as Well or Better Than Competition
Further Writedowns on High Yield Telecom $ 80MMABS Writedowns 30MMOther 40MM
Total $150MM
WorldCom (Fraud) $120MMAdelphia (Fraud) 11MM
Total Fraud-Related $131MM
Total $281MM
Writedowns and Losses Higher Than Expected Due to WorldCom Fraud
2002 First Half Writedowns and Realized Losses (Gross)
Credit Intensive Approach a Benefit in Today’s Market
Summary
▲ Weak U.S. economy and bond market in 2002▲ Many significant bankruptcies▲ JNL’s credit approach is paying dividends
– Avoided 11 of 15 bankruptcies– Severe underweight in power generation sector– 2002 performance as good, or better, than competition– Holdings in stressed names in line with competition– Solid total return performance
Commercial Mortgage Loans and Real Estate Securities
David ZacharExecutive Vice PresidentCommercial Real Estate
PPM America
Commercial Mortgage
Loans
CMBS and REIT
Securities
Real Estate Joint
Ventures
$3.3 billion $2.6 billion $60 million
PPM’s Commercial Real Estate Group
Commercial Mortgage Loans and Real Estate Securities
▲ Real estate securities ▲ Commercial mortgage
lending▲ Real estate joint
ventures
▲ Focus is on– High quality real estate – Well sponsored– Well located– Well diversified both in
terms of property types and geography
Real Estate Securities▲ CMBS: - $1.6 billion - 4.26% of JNL’s Invested Assets
– U.S. CMBS market is $500 billion in size– Value added to Corporate Bonds of similar ratings– Unlike MBS, excellent call protection via the individual
loans and the sequential structure of CMBS– JNL portfolio consists primarily BBB+ to A- securities
▲ REITs: - $732 million - 1.89% of JNL’s Invested Assets– Total public debt outstanding in REIT-debt market is $50
billion– Also value added to Corporate Bonds of similar ratings– All REIT-debt in JNL’s portfolio is public, investment
grade securities
A Description of the Attributes of a Commercial Mortgage Loan
Commercial Mortgage Loans
▲ Compelling Attributes of a Commercial Mortgage:
– Fixed Income Asset based on real estate assets
– Yield Maintenance – Favorable capital treatment by regulators
▲ JNL’s Commercial Mortgage Portfolio 9% of Invested Assets
– Totals $3.2 billion with an average loan size of $8.7 million
– Minimum loan size of $5 million, maximum loan size of $30 million
– Excellent experience– Well-diversified in property types
40 West Office BuildingSt. Louis, Missouri$22.5 million loan
PPM’s Origination Strategy and Preferred Property Types
Commercial Mortgage Lending Strategy
Strategy ▲ Value Added Lending
– Responsive– Creative– Mid Point documents– Process oriented– Borrower oriented
▲ Sourced and serviced by correspondents
– Local knowledge of borrowers and submarkets
▲ Loans underwritten by PPM– PPM orders the appraisal and
third party reviews
Monterrey, CA
San Francisco Columbus, OHIndianapolis
Chicago
Washington, D.C.
Des MoinesPhiladelphia
Rochester, NY
CharlotteNashville
Daytona Beach
Tampa
MiamiNaples, FL
BuffaloDetroit
Birmingham
Memphis
Milwaukee
Mcallen, TX
Kansas City
Austin
San Antonio
Los Angeles
San Diego
Houston
Dallas
Atlanta
St. Louis
Phoenix
Minneapolis
Portland, OR
Salt Lake City
Tuscon
Pittsburgh
Seattle
Cleveland
Boston
Denver
Las Vegas
Boise
Colorado Springs
Jacksonville
Columbia, SC
Louisville Norfolk
Omaha
Fresno
Fargo
Orlando
Charleston, SC
Wichita
TulsaSanta Fe
Spokane
Brownsville, TX
Reno
JNL’s Commercial Mortgage Loan Portfolio
PPM’s Origination Strategy and Preferred Property Types
Commercial Mortgage Lending Strategy
Targeted Property Types▲ Office Buildings
– Suburban, Class A– Loans at or below
replacement cost– Not CBD
▲ Retail Centers– Grocery or Discounter Anchored
▲ Apartments– Class A- or B+ – Newer or an effective age of 5 years
or less▲ Warehouse/Distribution
– High bay– Masonry construction Giant Eagle Center
Pittsburgh, PA
Wesley Park Apts.Atlanta,Georgia
Private Placement Investments
Private Placement Advantages
▲ Private placement investments have several advantages over public investments– Better and more consistent information– Better structure– Better documents– Better covenants and control– Better pricing
▲ JNL is willing to trade some liquidity for these advantages
Private Asset Class AUM ($ in Billions)Historical AverageSpread to Publics
Private Corporates $3.6 20-25 bps
High Yield Bank Loans $0.2 Up to 20 bps
Structured Finance $3.1 20-50 bps
Private Placement Pricing Advantage
Summary
Summary▲ Significant, multiple asset class investment
capabilities▲ Historically difficult investing environment▲ Value added research capabilities▲ Management response to current environment
– Monitor constantly– Reposition within constraints– Execute risk mitigation trades when practical– Transition with evolving investment policies
▲ PPM is well-positioned to be proactive on the opportunities that a tough market can present
Appendix
Appendix: A 2001 Return Calculations
Comments 12/31/00 12/31/01Total assets $36,067.9 $39,733.1
438.0 480.6$36,505.9 $40,213.7
Capital contribution-dividends (168.6)$40,045.1
Take out CMLs (4,660.2) (4,191.4)Take out Policy Lns (687.2) (700.4)PPM Assets ex CMLs $31,125.7 $35,153.3
Deposits $6,876.6W'drawals (4,858.7)Decr (incr) in CMLs 468.8Net transfer to sep accts (468.9)
Net $2,017.8
Assumptions/Methodology▲ Using the balance sheet we calculate the beginning
and ending market value of JNL’s portfolio, which reflects both realized and unrealized losses. We adjust for capital movement; for commercial mortgage loans, where the performance is clearly excellent; and for policy loans, which PPMA does not manage.
▲ We calculate net flows as sales minus surrenders and reflect the inflow from the reduction in the commercial mortgage loan portfolio. These numbers are from the GAAP statement of cash flows and from the balance sheet.
▲ Treating this as a mid-period flow, 6.2% is the real time weighted rated of return that these numbers suggest is the total return for the portfolio.
Accrued investment income
(32.8)$36,473.1