Population would have been 440 million in 1991 without wars
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Transcript of Population would have been 440 million in 1991 without wars
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Urban Geography andUrban Geography andSpatial DemographicsSpatial Demographics
Zoltan Grossman, Blood & Borders, The Evergreen State CollegeZoltan Grossman, Blood & Borders, The Evergreen State College
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USSR PopulationUSSR Population(Lost 15 mil to civil war/Stalin and 14 mil to WWII;
Male shortage one reason for women in both workforce & home)
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Millions
Population would have been 440 million in 1991 without wars
DespiteAnnexations!
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““State Socialism”State Socialism” • Central planning of “Command Economy”
• Guaranteed job, low rents, health care, daycare, etc.
• Heavy industrialization to catch up to West
• Forced collectivization of private farmlands
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Soviet Bloc urban populationSoviet Bloc urban population• Soviets favored large industry over farms & cities
– Moscow 30% industrial; Paris only 5%
• Urbanization but without urban services/transit/life
• Prefab worker apartment blocs / housing shortages
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Russian urban populationRussian urban populationOverwhelmingly in largest cities
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Percentage ofpopulation in cities
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““Shock therapy”Shock therapy” • Close command industries
• Reduce or end subsidies
• Pass burden to renters
• Privatize industrial economy; benefit new entrepeneurs
• High unemployment, inflation, inequality
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• Hub regions - Government/transportation centers. High-tech industries- Moscow, St. Petersburg, Kiev, Nizhny Novgorod, Urals
• Gateway regions- Outward looking/ trade-oriented- Vladivostok, Murmansk, Kaliningrad
Winning regionsWinning regions
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• Command military-industrial / coal regions
• State agricultural regions
• Remote natural resource (non-oil)
• Ethnic minority regions in conflict
Losing regionsLosing regions Huge gaps in prices, income, roads
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Favorable regions of RussiaFavorable regions of Russia
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Unfavorable regions of RussiaUnfavorable regions of Russia
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Russia’s demographics, 1990-2006Russia’s demographics, 1990-2006
Male Female
Effects of war, poor male health
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Russian birth rateRussian birth rate
02468
1012141618
1985 1991 1996
Birth rate per 1000
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Russian death rateRussian death rate
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Death rate per 1000
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U.S. Baby BoomU.S. Baby Boom USSR instead had “echo busts” slowing growth in 1960s, 1980s
Baby Bust (1965-1980)
Baby Boom (1946-1964)
EchoBoom
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Russian life expectancyRussian life expectancyMen dying from alcohol, drugs, accidents, crime;
Male life expectancy now like parts of Third World
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Russia’s population declinePopulation decline for first time since WWII;
Worries about aging population, labor shortages;Larger families in Muslim regions but not as many industrial workers
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Feudal City
Narrow, Twisty Medieval Streets
Vienna, Austria
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URBAN GEOGRAPHY:Trade City
• Merchant capitalism emerges 1400s-1500s;
Gradually replaces feudalism
• Mediterranean Sea ports
• Baltic/North Sea ports (Hanseatic League)
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IndustrialRevolution:
Steam engine
Steel
Loom
IndustrialcapitalistCity(1800 on)
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Other European city characteristics
Plazas
High density
Low skyline
Lively downtown
Neighborhood stability
Symbolism/memorials
Good municipal services
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CentralPlace Theory
Explaining the relativesize /function of urban centers asa function ofeconomic behavior
Range:Maximum distancebuyer will travel
Threshold:Minimum market size
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Stagesof
intraurban growthin U.S.
Counterurbanization of wealthy
More than half live in suburbs today
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WesternEuropean City
Industrial workers,immigrants in suburbs
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CentralEuropean City
Budapest,Hungary
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Urban Inequalities under State Socialism(Iván Szelényi, Oxford U. Press, 1983)
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Unemployment, 1980-2010
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Unemployment, 2002-2010
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Depressed regions, 2004
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Roma population, 2001
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Jobbik vote, 2009
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Jobbik / Hungarian Guard