Population Trends in the U.S. and Canada - ccie.comccie.com/pdf/TrendUpdate_01_v5.pdf · For thirty...
2
In TV crime shows the credo ‘follow the money’ guides investigations. In the world of demographics the guiding principle is ‘follow the baby boom.’ For decades in the past and for decades into the future, the driver behind major trends in the United States and Canada is the unprecedented level of births following World War II. Currently, baby boomers represent one- third of the total populations in the U.S. and Canada. An indication of the importance put on the impact of the boomer was the selection by Time magazine of the Baby Boom Generation as its 1967 ‘Man of the Year.’ To appreciate the magnitude of this impact, one need only follow trends in TV advertising: In the 1950s and early 1960s, when families with • baby boom children were getting established, TV commercials focused on automobiles, household appliances, and children’s products. In the late 1960s and 1970s, when the baby • boom children were achieving adulthood and becoming a huge block of consumers, commercials were all about the youth culture — the music, the dress, and free thinking of the Flower Power Generation. In the 1980s and early 1990s, as the baby • boomers started to reach middle age, the focus of commercials shifted to ‘preserving youth’ — fitness, healthful eating, and living the rugged outdoor life. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, as the first baby • boomers start reaching the half-century mark, the commercials are starting to zero in on the challenges of aging — commercials for restoring sexual vigor, planning for retirement, and guarding against the challenges of aging. The Impact on Early Childhood Education The early childhood field has been impacted as much if not more than any other sector of society by the baby boom. In the late 1960s and 1970s, when baby boomers started having children, the population of children under five reached an all-time high in the U.S. This peaked in the early 1960s when this cohort surpassed 20 million (U.S. Census Bureau, 2000). This huge cohort of young children, combined with the dramatic increase in the number of mothers with preschool children entering the workforce and the shrinking family size (leaving families with more resources to devote per child), resulted in the exploding demand for early childhood services. As a result, the number of preschool children enrolled in child care programs more than tripled from 1970 to 1989 (Neugebauer, 1994). The baby boom was followed by a ‘baby bust’ from 1965 to 1976, and that was followed by a ‘baby boom echo’ as baby boom grandchildren started to have children. The result is the up and down in the cycle population of children under five that can be seen in Chart A. Population Trends in the U.S. and Canada Volume 1, Issue 1 Chart A – Population of Children Under Five (Actual and Projected) United States Canada Sources: US Census Bureau 2004 and Statistics Canada, CANISM 2004
Transcript of Population Trends in the U.S. and Canada - ccie.comccie.com/pdf/TrendUpdate_01_v5.pdf · For thirty...
In TV crime shows the credo ‘follow the money’ guides investigations. In the world of demographics the guiding principle is ‘follow the baby boom.’ For decades in the past and for decades into the future, the driver behind major trends in the United States and Canada is the unprecedented level of births following World War II. Currently, baby boomers represent one-third of the total populations in the U.S. and Canada. An indication of the importance put on the impact of the boomer was the selection by Time magazine of the Baby Boom Generation as its 1967 ‘Man of the Year.’
To appreciate the magnitude of this impact, one need only follow trends in TV advertising:
In the 1950s and early 1960s, when families with •baby boom children were getting established, TV commercials focused on automobiles, household appliances, and children’s products.
In the late 1960s and 1970s, when the baby •boom children were achieving adulthood and becoming a huge block of consumers, commercials were all about the youth culture — the music, the dress, and free thinking of the Flower Power Generation.
In the 1980s and early 1990s, as the baby •boomers started to reach middle age, the focus of commercials shifted to ‘preserving youth’ — fitness, healthful eating, and living the rugged outdoor life.
In the late 1990s and early 2000s, as the first baby •boomers start reaching the half-century mark, the commercials are starting to zero in on the challenges of aging — commercials for restoring sexual vigor, planning for retirement, and guarding against the challenges of aging.
The Impact on Early Childhood Education
The early childhood field has been impacted as much if not more than any other sector of society by the baby boom. In the late 1960s and 1970s, when baby boomers started having children, the population of children under five reached an all-time high in the U.S. This peaked in the early 1960s when this cohort surpassed 20 million (U.S. Census Bureau, 2000). This huge cohort of young children, combined with the dramatic increase in the number of mothers with preschool children entering the workforce and the shrinking family size (leaving families with more resources to devote per child), resulted in the exploding demand for early childhood services. As a result, the number of preschool children enrolled in child care programs more than tripled from 1970 to 1989 (Neugebauer, 1994).
The baby boom was followed by a ‘baby bust’ from 1965 to 1976, and that was followed by a ‘baby boom echo’ as baby boom grandchildren started to have children. The result is the up and down in the cycle population of children under five that can be seen in Chart A.
Population Trends in the U.S. and Canada
Volume 1, Issue 1
Chart A – Population of Children Under Five(Actual and Projected)
United States
Canada
Sources: US Census Bureau 2004 and Statistics Canada, CANISM 2004
For thirty years Exchange has been chronicling the history of and trends in the early childhood profession. Our Early Childhood Education Trend Report CD Book compiles 150 Exchange reports
on trends and history from the very earliest to the most recent.
Your purchase includes this FREE electronic Trend Update, one per month for the next 12 months, to help ensure you’re always on top of the latest developments in this ever-changing environment.
Check out all of the valuable resources from Exchange: www.childcareexchange.com
(800) 221-2864
References Cohn, D., & Passel, J. “U.S. Population Projections 2005 — 2050.” Pew Research Center, www.pewresearch.org Neugebauer, R. (January, 1994 ). “Impressive Growth Projected into the 21st Century.” Exchange, 95, 80. U.S. Census Bureau. “Residence Population Estimates of the United States by Age and Sex.” Population Estimates Program, Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC Internet Release date: December 20, 2000 Statistics Canada, CANISM Statistics Canada, Csensuses of population, 1956 to 2006. Population Projections for Canada, Provences, and Territories Statistics Canada Demography Division, 2005 Alain Bélanger, Laurent Martel and Éric Caron-Malenfant Published by authority of the Minister responsible for Statistics Canada © Minister of Industry, 2005 Statistics Canada, 2006 2006 Census of Population, Statistics Canada catalogue no. 97-551-XCB2006005. U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 He Wan, Manisha Sengupta, Victoria A. Velkoff, Kimberly A. DeBarros U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, P23-209, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 2005 U.S. Census Bureau, 2004 “U.S. Interim Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin” www.census.gov/ipc/www/usinterimproj Internet Release Date: March 18, 2004 U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 “Resident Population Estimates of the United States by Age and Sex Population Estimates” Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C. 20233 Internet Release Date: December 20, 2000
Looking at this chart, you can also see that shortly after the turn of the century, the population of children under five returned to the peak years of the 1960s.
Furthermore, projections call for the under five population to steadily increase through 2050 in the U.S., surpassing 25 million within 25 years. These continuing increases will not be driven so much by the baby boom effect. Rather, all projected increases will be due to the arrival of new immigrants and the children born to them in the U.S. (Cohn, 2008).
The New Population Boom — the Elderly While the Baby Boom Generation is no longer significantly impacting the child population numbers, it is impacting the early childhood world in a new way. As this huge cohort in the population starts reaching age 65 in 2009, the elderly end of the population spectrum in the U.S. and Canada will begin to explode. A review of Charts B and C reveals that in both the U.S. and Canada, the 65 and over cohorts represent an increasingly large proportion of the population. As early as 2020, the elder cohort will be three times bigger than the preschool cohort in both the U.S. and Canada.
In the coming years, the number of preschool children should continue to rise in the U.S. and remain fairly stable in Canada. However, from a public policy point of view, the attention that will be paid to the early years may begin to recede as the needs of the elderly population loom larger and larger.
Chart C – Distribution of Population in CanadaAge as a Percentage of Total Population (Actual and Projected)
Age 65 and Older
Age 0 to 5
Chart B – Distribution of Population in the United StatesAge as a Percentage of Total Population (Actual and Projected)
Age 65 and Older
Age 0 to 5
Source: Statistics Canada 2005
Source: US Census Bureau 2005
Want More Trends?
