Population Trends in Maryland, 2000-2006

2007 Spring Planning Directors Meeting

May 22, 2007

Population Data Source

• U.S. Census Bureau annual estimates through July 1, 2006

– Data for states released end of December, 2006

– Data for counties released end of March, 2007

U.S. Census Bureau Population Cohort Component Estimates

• Births & deaths from administrative records

• Internal (domestic) migration from federal tax returns and Medicare records

• International migration – a national estimate is distributed to states & counties based on Census 2000 ratios

Maryland Population, 2000 & 2006 (and rank within U.S.)

5,296,4865,615,727

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

2000 2006(19th) (19th)

Maryland Population Change,2000- 2006

• Total Change = 319,221 (14th largest)

• Percent Change = 6.0% (21st fastest)– But below the overall U.S. rate of 6.4%

Annual Population Change for Maryland (and rank within U.S.)

15,189

68,10061,554

65,335

46,565

36,350

26,128

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

4/1/00-7/1/00

7/1/00-7/1/01

7/1/01-7/1/02

7/1/02-7/1/03

7/1/03-7/1/04

7/1/04-7/1/05

7/1/05-7/1/06

14th 14th 10th 16th 18th 27th

Annual Pct Change in Pop in Maryland, 2000- 2006 (and rank within U.S.)

0.3%

1.3%

1.1%1.2%

0.8%0.7%

0.5%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

4/1/00-7/1/00

7/1/00-7/1/01

7/1/01-7/1/02

7/1/02-7/1/03

7/1/03-7/1/04

7/1/04-7/1/05

7/1/05-7/1/06

13th 18th 12th 22nd 27th 36th

Net Natural Change (Births – Deaths) for Maryland

8,189

30,046 28,920 29,792 30,894 31,144 30,173

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

4/1/00-7/1/00

7/1/00-7/1/01

7/1/01-7/1/02

7/1/02-7/1/03

7/1/03-7/1/04

7/1/04-7/1/05

7/1/05-7/1/06

Net International Migration and Federal Citizens’ Movement for Maryland

6,627

23,61821,917

15,655

20,99519,783

21,135

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

4/1/00-7/1/00

7/1/00-7/1/01

7/1/01-7/1/02

7/1/02-7/1/03

7/1/03-7/1/04

7/1/04-7/1/05

7/1/05-7/1/06

Net Internal Migration for Maryland, 2000 – 2006 *

190

10,01513,309

8,560

-7,801-11,680

-25,610-30,000

-25,000

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

4/1/00-7/1/00

7/1/00-7/1/01

7/1/01-7/1/02

7/1/02-7/1/03

7/1/03-7/1/04

7/1/04-7/1/05

7/1/05-7/1/06

(24th) (14th) (11th) (15th)

(40th) (42nd) (43rd)

* And rank of net internal migration among the 50 states and District of Columbia

Components of Population Change for Maryland: 2000 - 2006

189,158

129,730

-13,017

13,350

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

Net NaturalChange

InternationalMigration

DomesticMigration

Residual

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning from U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, December, 2006

Reasons for Maryland NetInternal Out Migration

• Decreasing relative “economic vitality”

• Higher housing costs compared to neighboring states

Annual Pct Change in MD W&S Jobs and Pct Pt Difference: MD – U.S.

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Pct change in MD W&S jobs Pct Pt Difference: Maryland - U.S.

Intra-U.S. Net Migration Flows for Maryland (Less Wash. D.C.) and Differential in Job Growth (MD-U.S.)

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Mig

rati

on

(th

ou

san

ds)

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

Jo

b G

row

th D

iffe

ren

tial

Migration Job Growth Differential

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services based on summary data prepared by the Internal Revenue Service.

2000 Median Value of Owner Occupied Housing – Bordering Counties, MD & PA

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

2005 Median Value of Owner Occupied Housing – Bordering Counties, MD & PA*

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

* Median value, plus and minus the margin of error

Change in Median Value of Owner Occupied Housing, 2000-2005

40,400 48,40031,800

47,700

175,100150,100

98,200 89,80074,900

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

Source: Census 2000 and the 2005 American Community Survey

2005 Median Value of Owner Occupied Housing Built Between 2000 and 2004 *

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

* Median value, plus and minus the margin of error

Inmigration to Maryland From PA and Outmigration from Maryland To PA

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Inflows Outflows

Net Migration for Maryland With Pennsylvania

-169-735 -458 -450

-126

-1,218

-3,070

-4,337

-6,889-8,000

-7,000

-6,000

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Net Migration for Maryland With Pennsylvania

-6,000

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Border counties * Rest of Maryland

*Baltimore, Carroll, Frederick, Harford & Washington

Net Migration for Maryland WithWest Virginia

-1,578-1,284

-1,606

-2,085-2,379

-2,822-3,000

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Net Migration for Maryland WithDelaware

-801

-607

-859-985 -949

-1,560-1,800

-1,600

-1,400

-1,200

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Total Population Change for Maryland’s Jurisdictions, 2000 - 2006

137869571,026

2,2502,3242,845

5,6787,343

11,82512,62213,55514,241

19,36319,64419,870

22,81224,610

27,66233,092

40,62457,966

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000

Garrett Kent

Dorchester Somerset

Talbot Worcester

Caroline Queen Anne's

Wicomico Washington

St. Mary's Cecil

Calvert Carroll

Anne Arundel Charles Harford Howard

Frederick Baltimore

Prince George's Montgomery

Population Change, 2000 - 2006

-19,788

-2,099

-24,000

-20,000

-16,000

-12,000

-8,000

-4,000

0

Baltimore City Allegany(-3.0%) (-2.8%)

Components of Population Change for Allegany County, 2000-2006

-1,367

137

-862

236

-243

-1,600

-1,200

-800

-400

0

400

Netnaturalchange

ForeignMig

DomesticMig

GroupQuarters

Residual

Components of Population Change for Baltimore City, 2000-2006

8,609 7,943

-65,785

1,617

27,828

-80,000

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

Netnaturalchange

ForeignMig

DomesticMig

GroupQuarters

Residual

Net Internal Migration for Baltimore City

-3,341

-13,052-12,008

-10,773-10,160

-8,597-7,854

-14,000

-12,000

-10,000

-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

4/1/00-7/1/00

7/1/00-7/1/01

7/1/01-7/1/02

7/1/02-7/1/03

7/1/03-7/1/04

7/1/04-7/1/05

7/1/05-7/1/06

Percent Change in Population for Maryland’s Jurisdictions, 2000-2006

0.0%3.1%

4.0%4.1%4.1%4.4%

5.0%5.1%

6.6%6.7%

8.7%9.0%

9.6%9.9%

10.4%12.8%

14.0%14.2%

14.6%15.8%

16.5%19.1%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Garrett Dorchester

Anne Arundel Kent

Somerset Baltimore Co

Worcester PrinceGeorg Montgomery

Talbot Wicomico

Washington Caroline Howard Harford Carroll

Queen Anne's Frederick St. Mary's

Cecil Charles Calvert

Annualized Pop Change for Maryland’s Jurisdictions, 2000-2003 & 2003-2006

1,4631,9462,128

2,9023,805

4,5523,5464,021

4,9115,582

6,3319,868

12,933

2,3572,1002,213

1,6032,332

1,6172,782

3,2482,883

3,1744,172

2,8515,311

230214605

3371,105795

148

93519120

5846961,586

357102

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000

Kent Dorchester

Somerset Talbot

Worcester Caroline

Queen Anne's Wicomico

Washington St. Mary's

Cecil Calvert Carroll

AnneArundel Charles Harford Howard

Frederick Baltimore

PrinceGeorge Montgomery

2000-2003 2003-2006

Annualized Pop Change for Maryland’s Jurisdictions, 2000-2003 & 2003-2006

1,4631,9462,128

2,9023,805

4,5523,5464,021

4,9115,582

6,3319,868

12,933

2,3572,1002,213

1,6032,332

1,6172,782

3,2482,883

3,1744,172

2,8515,311

230214605

3371,105795

148

93519120

5846961,586

357102

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000

Kent Dorchester

Somerset Talbot

Worcester Caroline

Queen Anne's Wicomico

Washington St. Mary's

Cecil Calvert Carroll

AnneArundel Charles Harford Howard

Frederick Baltimore

PrinceGeorge Montgomery

2000-2003 2003-2006

Population Growth in the Upper & Lower Eastern Shore Regions, as a Pct of

Statewide Growth, 1991-2006

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

7/90

-7/91

7/91

-7/92

7/92

-7/93

7/93

-7/94

7/94

-7/95

7/95

-7/96

7/96

-7/97

7/97

-7/98

7/98

-7/99

7/99

-7/00

7/00

-7/01

7/01

-7/02

7/02

-7/03

7/03

-7/04

7/04

-7/05

7/05

-7/06

Total Upper Lower

Population Growth in the Eastern Shore Region & Washington County, as a Pct of

Statewide Growth, 1991-2006

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

7/90

-7/91

7/91

-7/92

7/92

-7/93

7/93

-7/94

7/94

-7/95

7/95

-7/96

7/96

-7/97

7/97

-7/98

7/98

-7/99

7/99

-7/00

7/00

-7/01

7/01

-7/02

7/02

-7/03

7/03

-7/04

7/04

-7/05

7/05

-7/06

Net Migration Outflow from Baltimore County to Pennsylvania, 2000 - 2005

-431-524 -576

-1,012

-1,367

-1,602

-1800

-1600

-1400

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Source: Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services, from IRS County-to-County Migration data

Net Migration Outflow From Carroll County to Pennsylvania, 2000 - 2005

-584-453

-675

-851

-1,018

-1,429

-1,600

-1,400

-1,200

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Source: Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services, from IRS County-to-County Migration data

Net Migration Outflow From Frederick County to Pennsylvania, 2000 - 2005

44

-93-18

-401

-537

-788-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Source: Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services, from IRS County-to-County Migration data

Net Migration Outflow From Frederick County To Washington Co., 2000 - 2005

-424 -398

-889

-1,316

-1,766 -1,841-2000

-1800

-1600

-1400

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Source: Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services, from IRS County-to-County Migration data

Net Migration Inflow To Frederick Co. From Montgomery County, 2000 - 2005

1,986

2,528

3,3833,681

4,214 4,247

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Source: Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services, from IRS County-to-County Migration data

Net Migration Inflow To Washington Co from Montgomery Co, 2000 - 2005

177 152

275

390

516

750

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Source: Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services, from IRS County-to-County Migration data

Net Migration Inflow To Cecil Co from Harford Co, 2000 - 2005

295333

383

520

704765

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Source: Maryland Department of Planning, Planning Data Services, from IRS County-to-County Migration data

Population Change, 2000-2006, as a Percent of 1990-2000 Change

0.8%20.2%

31.5%40.7%

49.8%53.2%55.7%58.0%61.4%61.4%62.6%

69.0%70.3%71.3%

78.5%85.9%

92.8%102.5%103.9%

112.3%123.3%

218.5%

0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%

GarrettWorcester

Anne ArundelHoward

MontgomeryBaltimore

Prince George'sKent

FrederickCalvert

HarfordTalbot

CarrollWicomicoSomerset

Queen Anne'sCecil

CharlesCaroline

WashingtonSt. Mary's

Dorchester

Summary

• Slower overall population growth in Maryland in last three years due to increasing net out migration

• Increasing out migration linked to decreasing relative economic vitality and higher housing prices

• Slower growth more apparent in central Maryland

Summary (cont.)

• Outlying areas with relatively lower housing prices have been the recipient of some of the displaced growth from central Maryland

• This has led to these outlying areas accounting for a greater share of statewide growth and in some cases to have surpassed the previous decade’s total growth