Tey Nai PengNg Sor ThoTan Pei Pei

(Faculty of Economics and Administration

University of Malaya)

Outline of presentationInter-relationships between population and

development Use of population projectionDemographic trendsData and methodPopulation projectionEstimating the requirements for education,

health and the economyDiscussion and conclusion

Population and developmentPoA adopted at 1994 ICPD -a new strategy to

meet the needs of individuals rather than on achieving demographic targets.

People are producers (human resources) and consumers (whose needs must be met).

Past Malaysia Plans incorporated population factors.

Use of Population ProjectionDevelopment planning to improve the wellbeing of

the population, and business planning (domestic market)

Meeting the demands for education and health, infrastructure, housing, jobs and other basic goods and services

Changing age structure have important implications for marketing and employment planning

Use to set the time frame to achieve a target population – e.g. Convince the government that the 70 million population is to be achieved in 115 years

Demographic trends - ROGPopulation growing at around 2.5-2.7 for

most of the time post Independence, but slowed down to 2% between 2000 and 2010.

Population hit 30 million mark in February 2014, at a annualized rate of 1.56%, slower pace but still increasing by 455 thousand persons annually

Declining total fertility rate – replacement level fertility

Consequences of demographic transitionLow birth rate and death rateChanges in the age structure, ethnic

compositionLabour shortage (fertility reduction and rapid

economic growth)Influx of migrant workers

Data and methodsData from population censuses, vital

statistics and social statistics bulletinCohort component method – births, deaths

and migrationDemProj and Rapid under the Spectrum

system developed by Futures Group for UN

Input data for population projection

2010 2020 2030 2040

TFR 2.13 2.07 1.94 1.8

Male life expectancy 71.7 73.6 75.1 76.6

Female life expectancy 76.2 77.3 78.6 80

Immigration        

Male 8,657 8,657 8,657 8,657

Female 8,242 8,242 8,242 8,242

Input data for education (assumed)Education 2010 2020 2030 2040

Primary school enrolment rate (%) 96 100 100 100

Students per primary school teacher 12 11 11 11

Students per primary school 360 360 360 360

Recurrent expenditure per primary school student (RM) 4,033 4,688 5,344 6,000

Secondary school enrolment rate (%) 80 83.3 86.7 90

Students per secondary school teacher 13 12 11 10

Students per secondary school 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000Recurrent expenditure per secondary school student (RM) 4,321 5,547 6,773 8,000

Input data for healthHealth 2010 2020 2030 2040

Population per doctor 867 687.1 593.6 500

Population per nurse 414 392.7 371.3 350

Population per health center/clinic 3,800 3,380 2,940 2,500

Population per hospital 75,257 66,838 58,419 50,000

Population per hospital bed 611 507.3 403.7 300

Annual health expenditure per person (RM) 1,200 1,800 2,400 3,000

Input data for economic sector2010 2020 2030  2040 

Male labour force participation rate 80.5 80.5 80.5 80.5Female labour force participation rate 49.5 53 56.5 60Base year gross domestic product (GDP - RM Millions) 1,000,000      

Annual growth rate in GDP % 4.9 4.93 4.97 5

Population projection up to2040

Comparing with DOSM and UNUN projection – population will peak at 44.2 million in 2070

Authors’ Own

Projection

DOSM UN

2010 28.6 28.6 28.3

2015 30.5 30.5 30.7

2020 32.6 32.4 32.9

2025 34.5 34.3 35.0

2030 36.1 36.0 36.8

2035 37.4 37.4 38.5

2040 38.4 38.6 39.9

Summary statistics (1)  2010 2015 2020CBR per 1000 17.3 17.6 17.1CDR per 1000 5.1 5.0 5.3CRNI percent 1.22 1.26 1.18GR percent 1.27 1.32 1.23Annual Births 493,585 538,334 557,657Annual Deaths 145,997 153,302 172,882

Total pop 28,588,800 30,530,627 32,561,308

Summary statistics (2)  2010 2015 2020

Percent 0-4 8.77 8.38 8.39

Percent 5-14 18.59 16.91 15.53

Percent 15-24 20.11 18.03 16.37

Percent 15-64 67.65 68.9 69.21

Percent 65+ 4.98 5.82 6.87

Dependency ratio 0.48 0.45 0.44

Median age 26 28 31

Urban population 20,125,200 22,134,704 24,420,981

Rural population 8,463,600 8,395,922 8,140,327

Percent urban 70.4 72.5 75

Age structural changes – demographic dividend and aging

Population pyramid, 2010, 2040

Requirements for primary education – concentration in urban areas, replacement needed

  Students Teachers Schools Expenditure (RM billion)

2010 3,055,061 254,588 8,486 12.3

2011 3,092,060 257,672 8,589 12.7

2012 3,123,787 260,316 8,677 13.0

2013 3,128,162 260,680 8,689 13.2

2014 3,096,803 258,067 8,602 13.3

2015 3,094,004 257,834 8,594 13.5

2020 3,005,583 273,235 8,349 14.1

Requirements for secondary education  Students Teachers Schools Expenditure

(RM billion)

2010 3,129,209 240,708 3,129 13.52011 3,100,977 240,386 3,101 13.82012 3,074,637 240,206 3,075 14.02013 3,054,777 240,534 3,055 14.32014 3,044,004 241,588 3,044 14.62015 3,042,314 243,385 3,042 15.02020 3,054,240 254,520 3,054 16.9

Requirements for health sector

  Doctors Nurse

Health centres/clinics Hospitals

Hospital beds

Health exp (RM billion)

2010 32,974 69,055 7,523 380 46,790 34.31

2011 36,520 70,398 7,716 390 48,280 36.54

2012 38,599 71,790 7,879 400 49,826 38.82

2013 39,641 73,195 8,087 410 51,447 41.17

2014 40,710 74,624 8,302 421 53,134 43.57

2015 41,815 76,093 8,522 432 54,879 46.03

2020 47,756 83,558 9,706 491 64,682 59.06

Requirements for economic sector

 Labour force (thousand)

New jobs (thousand)

GDP per capita (RM)

2010 12,684 273 34,9792011 12,957 261 36,1762012 13,218 252 37,4132013 13,469 247 38,6952014 13,716 246 40,0242015 13,962 245 41,4032020 15,142 197 49,241

Discussion (1)Development planning is aimed at reducing regional

disparity and improving the standard of living and making places more livable. Hence, there is a need to identify areas where population is growing rapidly, and also the population groups that are under-served. Population projections merely provide the number of “producers” and “consumers” of goods and services, we have to determine the standard to be achieved. E.g. to achieve a hospital bed population ratio of about 13.7 per 1000 population found in Japan and Korea, the number of hospital beds required in 2015 will be 7 to 8 times higher than that indicated above.

Discussion (2)More detailed projections at sub-national levels are

needed – target population.Population in the different states and regions grew at

different pace, resulting in population redistribution. Between 1980 and 2010, the average annual rate of

population growth ranges from 0.9 per cent in Perak to 4.3 per cent annum in Selangor and 3.9 percent in Sabah.

In 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. urban population grew at 6.2 percent, 4.8 percent and 3.4 per cent respectively, in contrast to zero growth in the 1980s and depopulation of 0.24 percent and 0.8 percent per annum in the rural areas.

More attention needs to be given to urban planning

Discussion (3)Implications of rapid urban growthInequality in accessibility to servicesLess developed states/areas fare worse than

the more developed states/areas Need to reduce regional disparities in

education, health, etc.

Discussion (4)Younger population stop growingOpportunities to improve the quality of

human resources/capital- issues of eroding standard in education

Addressing the social problems and meeting the needs of young people – education, employment, reproductive health etc.

Discussion (5)Population ageing -need to improve the social

security schemes and promote active and productive ageing

Increase in life expectancy must be accompanied by improvement in health expectancy.

Non-communicable diseases associated with unhealthy life style are also poses abecoming a major health problem.

Promoting healthy life style and healthy living must be accorded the highest priority, to ensure that the additional years of life are not spent in ill health, which s a burden to the health care system.

ConclusionMuch more remains to be done to provide the

necessary data to planners for them to allocate the required resources to meet the needs of the various segments and sub-groups of the population such as ethnic groups, occupational groups, people with disability, the indigenous, etc at the sub-national level.

Population projections and estimating the needs for the various population groups entails the collection of the relevant data and indicators at these levels.