Population Issues

Table of Contents

• 1. Overpopulation

• 2. Population Control

• 3. Population Futures

Overpopulation

Overpopulation

The demographic trap:

Birth rate remains high in late transition stage

Concerns:

1. Food

2. Education

3. Employment

Overpopulation

Overpopulation

Population Control:India

India’s Population Control has had only moderate success

Total fertility rate has been cut in half (from 6 to 3 children per woman)

Improvements in sanitation, and famine and epidemic control meant quick population growth

Population Control:IndiaSix Stages:

1. Clinic Approach

2-3. Target oriented sterilization (encouraging sterilization)

4. Coercive Approach (forced sterilization)

5. Backlash and Recovery

6. Reproductive and Child Health Approach

Population Control:India

• No attention to women in society, education levels, economic development and health.

Population Control:India

• Impact?

• 1. Distrust of sterilization and contraception

• Only used by a small percentage of the population

Population Control:India

• Impact?

• 2. Gender gap 113 to 129 males to 100 females (world average is 105 to 100)

• Preference of males

• Males stay to take after family - - females are married off (no old-age security in India)

• Infanticide (killing newborns) and high rates of abortions

Population Control:India

• Shortage of women in society

• Some evidence that girls are sold into marriage from poor families into rich families

Population Control:China

• One Child Policy:

• Strict but effective

Population Control:China

• Impacts:

• Gender gap

• 118 men to 100 women (in 2005)

• By 2020 40 million Chinese men will be unable to marry

China vs. India• China more effective:

• India’s population will outgrow China by 2025

• Chapter 6 Questions

Population Futures

• 3 factors affect the size of any population:

• 1. Total Fertility Rate

• 2. Life expectancy

• 3. Migration (immigration and emigration)

Population Futures

• Very difficult to accurate predict

• Example: 2050

• Low Variant: 7.8 billion

• High Variant: 10. 8 billion

• Medium Variant: 9.2 billion

Population Futures

• Population growth in developing nations but in the core….

• Core Population

• 2006 = 731 million

• 2050= low – 566 million

• Medium – 664 million

• High – 777 million

Population Futures

• Birth Dearth: the situation in a country where a low Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is causing the population to decline.

Population Futures

• Birth Dearth Implications:

• 1. Family Structures:

• Smaller families (1 child families)

• In a marriage who will look after parents (4 people) and grandparents (8 grandparents)?

Population Futures

• Birth Dearth Implications:

• 2. Aging Population

• More Old people

• Costs more money as a society

Population Futures

• Example: Pension

• - America in 1955 for each person collecting pension there were 9 people working

• - By 2030 only 2 people working per person collecting pension.

• - Effect: Higher taxes, larger national debt, people have to work longer

Population Futures• Birth Dearth Implications:

• 3. Labor Shortages

• - Not enough people to fill important jobs

• - Increase in immigration

• - Racism towards migrants increases

• Problem: What if a country like China gets a decreasing population?

Population Futures

• Birth Dearth Implications:

• 4. Economic effects:

• economic growth and stability depends on need

• population decline means less demand.

Population futures

• Birth Dearth Implications

• 5. Shift in World Power

• UN Security Council was determined post-WWII

• What will the power balance be in the future?

Population futures

• Possible Benefits:

• Easier to educate everyone

• Carrying capacity might not be be a problem

• Better for environment (rich people use more resources)

Population Futures

• P.111

• Questions 3. a),4. a), 5, 6, 10 a) b) c)

Population Futures

• Opinion Paper:

• By the end of the century, will Earth reach its carrying capacity?