Population history and agricultural transformation in Sub ... · • A population explosion; break...
Transcript of Population history and agricultural transformation in Sub ... · • A population explosion; break...
Population history and agricultural transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa
Prof. dr. Ewout Frankema, Rural and Environmental History, Wageningen University SKOV Seminar Population explosion in Sub-Saharan Africa: bloom or doom for agriculture?
Agenda
1. From historical statistics to 21st century projections
2. Historical drivers of African population dynamics
3. From low to high-density continent: threats & opportunities for agriculture.
Sharp fall in mortality rates (blue line), slow fertility decline response (pink line)
Summing up
• Very low densities up to 1950.
• A population explosion; break away from low-level equilibrium starting in the colonial era (c. 1900-1930).
• If projections are right: Africa will have ca. 40% of world population by 2100; turning from a low into a high-density continent.
• This transition is historically unprecedented because of a) the rate of demographic growth
b) drivers of mortality decline and the belated fertility response
Constraints to population growth before 1900?
• Environmental conditions supporting extensive agriculture and high population mobility – Climate: dry and high rainfall variation
– Light soils
– Few navigable waterways
– Limitations to animal draft power/mixed husbandry
• Tropical diseases – High child mortality rates
– Lower fertility rates
• Warfare
Diamond’s thesis
• The main domesticated food crops (rice, wheat, maize) were adopted relatively late in Africa
• Diffusion of domesticated animals and food crops hampered by vertical continental axis
Range: 0 - 5000mm p.a. Range: 400 - 1500mm p.a.
Papaioannou and Frankema 2016
Tropical Africa is dryer than tropical Asia; rainfall also less predictable
Scattered high-density areas
Main cause of mortality fall
• Rapid progress in the struggle against tropical diseases (e.g. malaria) and other endemic diseases (e.g. smallpox).
• Maternal care, child care
• Hygiene (clean drinking water, soap, sewage)
• NOT: transitions in agriculture leading to ‘green revolution’ rates of productivity growth.
Missionary nurse school in British Cameroon, 1956
Colonial agricultural policies
• Focus on export crops; little coordinated investment in irrigation, fertilization, new varieties of food crops; shortages are relieved with food aid (crisis management).
In Europe and Asia population growth went hand in hand with agricultural intensification....
...in Sub-Saharan Africa with extensive growth.
Source: FAOSTAT
Gross per capita food production (1961 =100)
Will intensification be the next step?
• Yes, but without ‘silver bullet’ innovations; lots of tailor-made micro-innovations and localized applications
• Von Thünen in Africa: urbanization, infrastructural development and... ICT
• Linkages with industrial sector will
remain (much?) weaker than in Asia
• Underemployment and emigration
Keeping people in the countryside will not be the solution!
Urbanization:
1. Lowers fertility rates
2. Enhances labour specialization
3. Concentrates consumer demand
4. Creates scale economies in welfare infrastructure
5. Enhances trade networks > new jobs
Key historical lesson: smart trade and infant industry protection help a lot!
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Source: Clark 2002
Share of British labour force in agriculture, 1500-1914
Conclusion
• Pessimists/Malthusians
o Too much, too fast!
o Fragile states and corrupt governments cannot handle this transition
o Climate change and water scarcity are already a big problem for agriculture
o Population boom will enhance mass unemployment, instability, mass emigration
o Poverty rates will rise again
• Optimists/Boserupians
o Population growth is a consequence of radical welfare improvements
o Low densities that have historically hampered economic development are rapidly disappearing
o Concentration of population will give great impulse to agricultural productivity growth, trade and some industrialisation
o Africa will dominate the 22st century