Population growth lesson3
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Transcript of Population growth lesson3
Population Growth
FertiltyMortality
Is a result of two factors:
● Fertility● Mortality
Population Growth
The ratio of births to population of a given area
It is measured by:
Fertility
CRUDE BIRTH RATE (CBR)
FERTILITY RATE / TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR)
REPLACEMANT LEVEL FERTILITY (RLF)
CHILD WOMEN RATIO
AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE
most common measure of fertility.
Gives an overall picture of the number of births per 1000 population in a year.
The number of births per 1000 people in a population per year
Formula: CBR = total number of births x 1000 total population
CRUDE BIRTH RATE
What is the limitation of the index measurement?
Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
It does not take into account the age and sex distribution of the population
What is the limitation of the index measurement?
It is the average number of children born to a woman during her lifetime
Varies geographically ◦ e.g in 1994:
◦ Sierra Leone, TFR of 6.5 while◦ UK, TFR of 1.8
Changes with time
Total Fertility rate (TFR)
Is the level at which each generation of women has only enough daughters to replace themselves in the population
What is the ideal replacement level? 2.1 0r 2
Replacement Level Fertility
Mortality may prevent a proportion of the female children from reaching their productive years and also, on average, slightly more boys are born than girls
Explain how mortality and sex composition of a group can affect replacement level?
Find the natural increase if
a. BR = 25/1000 DR = 10/1000
b. BR = 5/1000 DR = 10/1000
c. BR = 10/1000 DR = 10/1000
Simple Exercises…
High fertilty rates ( 4.0 & above)
Medium fertility rates (2.2 – 3.9)
Low fertility rate: (2.1 & below)
List out 4 countries with:
a. Infant and child mortalityb. Population momentumc. Views towards childrend. Status for womene. Cultural factorsf. Religion factorsg. Political factors
Elaborate the following factors, differentiate between Less economically developed countries and More economically developed countries.
Is the ratio of deaths to the population of a given area
Mortality
CRUDE DEATH RATE (CDR)
INFANT MORTALITY RATE (IMR)
LIFE EXPECTANCY
MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE (MMR)
AGE SPECIFIC DEATH RATE (ASDR)
Measures of mortality
The number of deaths per 1000 population in a year
Formula :
CDR = total number of deaths x1000
total population
CRUDE DEATH RATE (CDR)
What does it mean if ‘Sierra Leone’ had a CDR of 25/ 1000 in 1994?
Yes!!!
It shows whether there is improvement in health system or not.
If the CDR is low meaning there is improvement in health and if there is no improvement, CDR will be high
Is CDR a good indicator of a country’s health system?
It is a measure of the number of deaths of infants before the age of one per 1000 live births in a year
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)
Children respond easily to the state of their mother’s health and the state of pre and ante-natal services
Why is the IMR a reliable indicator of the state of health of a country?
The average number of years a person is expected to live
When mortality declines, life expectancy will increase
LIFE EXPECTANCY
Ageing population
Accessibility to amenities
Government commitment to improve health care
Living environment
Colonial past influence in LEDCs
Education among mothers and adults
Aids epidemic
Factors affecting mortality
Population growth is even slower in developed countries
Stabilising birth rates & increasing death rates have already led to natural population decrease in Italy & Germany
Japan & Spain are expected to follow soon
Lack of clean waterLack of foodPoor hygiene and sanitationOvercrowdingContagious diseases such as diarrhea and respiratory infections
PovertyThe occurrence of war
Why are death rates high?
Clean water is readily availableReliable food supplyGood hygiene and sanitationLower population densitiesBetter vaccinations and health care
Rising standards of living
Why do death rates decline?
Highest death rates are found in LEDCs esp. Sub-Saharan Africa.
Mali, Gambia, Sierra Leone, Uganda, Zambia – DR of 20/1000
Up to 600 women die for every 100000 children born
Pakistan – high DR among females, due to malnourished & limited access to health care
In 1990s – DR increased in Russia, Belarus, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Romania, Ukraine, Moldova
Shorter LE among male
Increase Cardiovascular disease Accidents Suicides Murders Stress Substance abuse (smoking & drinking)
All these linked to increased unemployment, and worsening living condition
Reasons for increased DR in male
The greater the proportion of population in the old age (65+), the higher the death rate for the population as a whole
Demographic structures
Top 5 highest percentage of population over 65
centenarians in Switzerland, 1860–2001: a demographic analysis
Mr. Henry Allingham was born on June 6, 1896 and is now 112.
"The UK's Oldest Man”
Of the 40,399 centenarians, 87 percent are women, the Health and Welfare Ministry said.
Japan's centenarian numbers rank it second in the world behind the United States, which now has more than 96,000, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates. But the U.S. population is more than double that of Japan.
More Than 40,000 Japanese Aged 100 or Over, Survey Says…
By 2066, there are predicted to be over half a million people aged over 100
Increase in the dependency ratio. This means that there will be more people claiming benefits such as state pensions and less people working and paying income taxes
Increased government spending on health care and pensions
Those in work will have to pay higher taxes. This could create disincentives to work and for firms to invest, therefore there could be a fall in productivity growth.
Shortage of workers. This shortage of workers could push up wages causing wage inflation. Alternatively, firms may have to respond by encouraging more people to enter the workforce, through offering flexible working practices.
The Impact of an Ageing Population
Increase participation rate,
Raise the retirement age
Increase the importance of the private sector in providing pensions and health care. However this may cause increased inequality
Government Responses to an Ageing Population